CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[wbrocks67]

Current results via CA SOS:

NO 5,840,283 (63.9%)
YES 3,297,145 (36.1%)

Looks like all E-Day votes are in, or nearly all of them, and Newsom still leads by 28%. Damn.

Remains to be seen how the rest of the mail ballots fall, if they are more R-leaning or D-leaning, but seems very likely he'll definitely stay above his 2018 margin.

[wbrocks67]

Also can this put to rest finally the idea that Trafalgar is some good pollster? They are literally trash and pull their #s out of nowhere.

[wbrocks67]

Twitter is dragging Kasie Hunt for her thread on this-

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1437976644615090177

[wbrocks67]

Edison has updated their exit polls.

Democrat: 94% no, 6% yes
Republican: 11% no, 89% yes
Independent: 52% no, 48% yes

Whites: 59% no, 41% yes
Blacks: 83% no, 17% yes
Latino: 60% no, 40% yes
Asian: 64% no, 36% yes

White college+: 70% no, 30% yes

Larry Elder fav: 32/51 (-18)
Biden job approval: 58/39 (+19)
Newsom job approval: 57/41 (+16)

--

Incredible that more Republicans voted no then Dems voting yes. Also that White College+ # is completely astonishing.

Latino vote aligns a little better with reality now it seems. Biden and Newsom job approvals also went up.

[wbrocks67]

Orange County just added around 24,000 votes; No expands its lead by around 2,000.

I don't think it is a given that the overall gap narrows. Almost all ED votes are in and MIB, even those cast late, are not necessarily Republican.

BTW today's OC vote was 54.5% NO - 45.5% YES. Around 200K left in OC.

if Newsom ends up staying anywhere close to +28.. whew lawd

[wbrocks67]

Seems more likely we're headed for Newsom +25-26, which would be close to the 3pt shift that Biden had in 2020 as well.

[wbrocks67]

NYT now saying 77% reported

NO 6,086,648 (63.8%)
YES 3,455,714 (36.2%)

So about 200/300K votes counted today and the margin did not move.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/09/14/us/california-recall-election-newsom

[wbrocks67]

NYT now saying 77% reported

NO 6,086,648 (63.8%)
YES 3,455,714 (36.2%)

So about 200/300K votes counted today and the margin did not move.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/09/14/us/california-recall-election-newsom

Another minor update

77% reported

NO 6,111,834 (63.7%)
YES 3,482,616 (36.3%)

= 9,594,450

[wbrocks67]

CASOS said there were 2.9 million ballots left to be counted (as of a few hours ago). Looks like we're on track for ~12.5m ballots.

Which is pretty incredible since thats 2018 midterm levels. So much for Dems being asleep at the wheel in a Biden midterm.

[wbrocks67]

Current results via CA SOS:

NO 5,840,283 (63.9%)
YES 3,297,145 (36.1%)

Looks like all E-Day votes are in, or nearly all of them, and Newsom still leads by 28%. Damn.

Remains to be seen how the rest of the mail ballots fall, if they are more R-leaning or D-leaning, but seems very likely he'll definitely stay above his 2018 margin.

Latest update:

NO 6,703,848 (63.5%)
YES 3,855,596 (36.5%)

We have gone from 9.1M to 10.6M now, and Newsom margin went from +27.8 to +27.0. So I imagine it settles in around Newsom +26 by the end of counting

[wbrocks67]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/18/politics/biden-california-democrats-midterms/index.html

"One of the big advantages Newsom had in this race is that Biden is quite popular in California. The current exit poll puts his approval rating at 58% to a disapproval rating of 39%. (The preelection Public Policy Institute of California poll similarly had the split at 58% to 38%."

My problem with this is the exit poll has Newsom winning 60-40 whereas the results are clearly going to be around 25-27% in the end. If Biden is +19 in the exit poll he might really be +25-27 if you weight the exit poll to the correct results.

Which would mean that despite national approval polls showing a dip, Biden is only off slightly from his 2020 margin.

Which makes me think that national polls are just as messy as they were in 2019-2020.

[wbrocks67]

I'm a bit confused with how the result lines up with Biden being down 3-5% nationally. If you adjust the exit polls to the likely result (Newsom +26), Biden's approval is about +25/26. That's only 3-4% below his 2020 margin, which would put him about even nationally, not down 3-5%.

The exit poll has Biden +19, but with about a Newsom +20 result, which is... not happening.

[wbrocks67]

I'm a bit confused with how the result lines up with Biden being down 3-5% nationally. If you adjust the exit polls to the likely result (Newsom +26), Biden's approval is about +25/26. That's only 3-4% below his 2020 margin, which would put him about even nationally, not down 3-5%.

The exit poll has Biden +19, but with about a Newsom +20 result, which is... not happening.

Right, they keep quoting exit polls which got the results wrong in the first place.

So they want us to believe that Biden is +19 in an electorate where the Dems were +27.  OK even if that were true it shows Dems are over performing Biden's approval.  The better thing would be to compare this to Newsom 2018.

And I'm more confused at how someone like Harry Enten is misunderstanding this, when he should know better.

[wbrocks67]

John Cox is perhaps the biggest loser in all of this. He went from getting 38% of the vote in 2018 to 4.3% of the replacement vote... and that is the number when you take OUT the people who didn't pick someone!

[wbrocks67]

We've crossed 11M

89% reporting

NO 6,984,595 (63.0%)
YES 4,094,764 (37.0%)

= 11,079,359

[wbrocks67]

We've crossed 11M

89% reporting

NO 6,984,595 (63.0%)
YES 4,094,764 (37.0%)

= 11,079,359

We've crossed 11.5M

92% reported

NO 7,289,563 (62.9%)
YES 4,295,574 (37.1%)

= 11,585,137

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1440829125774643203

[wbrocks67]

We've crossed 11.5M

92% reported

NO 7,289,563 (62.9%)
YES 4,295,574 (37.1%)

= 11,585,137

93% reported

NO 7,415,392 (62.7%)
YES 4,406,653 (37.3%)

= 11,822,045

Newsom +25.4

[wbrocks67]

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

It would appear the opposite I think

[wbrocks67]

<95% REPORTED

NO 7,785,693 (62.2%)
YES 4,725,945 (37.8%)

= 12,511,638

Newsom +24.4

We officially pass 2018’s total (12.46M). Newsom is looking to replicate his margin in 2018 (+23. though probably a smidge higher, like +24.0.

Which would mean we need to move the exits 4% to the left.

[wbrocks67]

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

There was a Republican swing, but it was unimpressive.

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

It would appear the opposite I think

So yes or no?

I could be wrong, but it appears most of the Hispanic/Latino-heavy precincts when overwhelmingly for "NO" on the recall.

[wbrocks67]

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1443075149314547712

Isn't Hispanic/Latino turnout absolutely terrible in CA in off year elections?

[wbrocks67]

Even by California standards, it's taking forever to count these last 100k ballots. There's been basically no progress all week.

100k left.  So could the margin still go down to 20 as predicted?

No, it's at +24.0 right now, so in all likelihood, he's going to exactly replicate his 2018 margin (+23.

[wbrocks67]

From what I can tell, the CNN exit poll has actually adjusted to the final result - if you calculate (if I did it correctly here), it manages to produce a 62-38 result.

That being said, since it's now accurate, it shows:

Newsom approval: 59/39 (+20)
Biden approval: 60/37 (+23)

Biden voters 59-29.

So basically all Biden voters voted No, but some Indies deflected, which makes sense. Biden down 6% from his 2020 result, but Newsom outperforming his own approval by 4%.