2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[psychprofessor]

Stop trying to read tea leaves from 7 am morning votes geez louise

[psychprofessor]

everything across the board is looking good for biden

[psychprofessor]

In PA Montgomery County, the state’s largest suburban county, total turnout could reach nearly 90 percent of registered voters, up from roughly 77 percent in 2016, County Dem chairman Joe Foster told me

[psychprofessor]

In the end Biden is gonna take all of the toss ups outstanding except NC. This is starting to feel like 2018 all over again - starts out bad and ends pretty well. If we can get both GA senate seats to a run off that would be fantastic.

[psychprofessor]

How much vote is left in Georgia?

I believe still around 150k-200k mail ballots, from heavy dem areas.

[psychprofessor]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324152903364304896

Biden +4.3 is not good to be clear, but it does indicate that states like Arizona and Georgia (and even North Carolina) are moving left faster than the nation at large. This would be good news for the 2024 nominee.

(Nevada + Arizona + Georgia + North Carolina + Minnesota = 275)*
*census will change totals slightly

I think you still make heavy investment in the upper midwest. Biden has strong ties to PA and will want to have a "hometown" effect in 2024. Out of WI/MI/PA, I think holding on to PA in 2024 is vital.

[psychprofessor]

Nevada probably isnt a lock, and if hispanics swing right like they did this election you are going to do multiple paths to victory

I'm wondering what a more "traditional" business / religious centric R would do with Hispanics and WWC. Trump's unique racial appeals seemed to work with men. Would a religious R (like Cruz) or a traditional R (like Hogan or Baker) have the same appeal?

[psychprofessor]

Trump at 47.9 in the NPV. He wound up with 45.9 in 2016. He probably ends up somewhere around 46-46.5 this year. For all the ups and downs he just ended up right where he was four years ago.

[psychprofessor]

howardfineman
@howardfineman
·
7m
My best vote-counter source in #PA now predicting final #Biden victory margin of 200K - 300K. That’s a tick up from a few hours ago.

[psychprofessor]

It’s close, but where are you getting 12k from?

He's up officially by 28-29, new drop from the election site nets Biden 16k, puts T up around 12k.

[psychprofessor]

Biden probably does better in Pennsylvania than Wisconsin and Michigan.

Every instinct everyone had about this election was wrong, wow.

Hot take: in the end, COVID changed next to nothing.

Actually, COVID changed the way D's voted and perhaps helped them win PA/MI/WI with mail ballots.

[psychprofessor]

Biden probably does better in Pennsylvania than Wisconsin and Michigan.

Every instinct everyone had about this election was wrong, wow.

Hot take: in the end, COVID changed next to nothing.

Agreed. The pandemic only intensified partisan polarization and deepened the loyalty of Trump's base to him, while increasing the determination of the Democratic base to get him out. It's clear from these election results that this country is split virtually 50/50 between those who despise Trump and those who support him.

Trump never had majority approval. He won in 2016 with 45.9 % of the vote. He will end up with 46-47% in 2020. The country is not split 50/50. If it were, he probably would have been re-elected.

[psychprofessor]

Bucks Co. just flipped. Now I want Lehigh and Monroe to flip. Great to see Biden turning the eastern counties of PA all blue.

[psychprofessor]

Both parties need a wake up call

NY is a red state without NYC
IL is a red state without Chicago

CA is to the left of NY and IL......

GA is going Blue, and Republicans put to trash gay marriage and abortion in the garbage.

Martina White and Nicole Malliotakis should be the template for the GOP going forward, Northern ethnic law and order, not Marsha Blackburn's rigid social conservatism.

What is going on in New York? Biden's margins look pathetically small for a Democrat, different websites have different figures (I have no idea why) but the Guardian has him only up by 12.7%. Nassau, Rockland and Dutchess are red, Trump's over 60% in Staten Island, over 30% in Queens and over 25% in Brooklyn. Have the postal votes just not been counted yet or is Trump really doing abnormally well in his former home state?

As for the future of the GOP, I 100% agree. Bible bashing and white grievance politics are a dead end for them long term, building on their gains with non-white voters (many of whom are not really liberal at all) is likely the way forward.

VBMs not counted.

These NY margins will significantly improve for D's in NY. They returned over 1.2 VBM ballots.

[psychprofessor]

Biden almost +3 in Michigan now with new votes from Wayne Co. posted.

[psychprofessor]

If 2016 was stolen from Hillary one does have to take pause and wonder if the same couldn't be done in 2020. Right democrats? I doubt it but....

What does this even mean? Russia certainly influenced the election - but to date there is no evidence of actual votes being manipulated. Just call on your party to stop the bull*hit.

[psychprofessor]

The swing to Biden in New Jersey is down to 1.8% now with more ballots counted, quite possible New Jersey will trend Republican this year again like it did in 2016, here is an interesting statistic, Biden is doing only 2.4% worse in Colorado than New Jersey, could Colorado vote to the left of New Jersey in 2024. 

I'd honestly be shocked if Biden did worse than Hillary in NJ... I guess just an impact of higher turnout among rural Rs?

Lots of ballots from Hudson and Essex counties to count - as of now they are still behind their 2016 totals so I would assume what will come in from here will break heavily for Biden.

[psychprofessor]

Thinking Biden should have the map photocopied and handed to Trump on 1/20/21 showing his landslide victory.

[psychprofessor]

I just wonder how likely it is the popular vote win will be larger than 2012? Can Joe Biden get to 51.1%, and Trump below 47.2%?

It’s almost certain at this point, the overwhelming majority of outstanding ballots are located in deeply blue states.

Yes. Trump will fall somewhere between 46.5-46.9

[psychprofessor]

Just re-looking at the exits and I wonder if people are misinterpreting the data for race. Perhaps Trump's improvement with Blacks and Hispanics rests solely on his appeals to men? Black and Latino women voted close to how Black and Latino's overall have been voting in the 2010's. What changed was an increase with Black and Latino men - and I'm wondering if this has much less to do with Republican's making racial inroads as opposed to gender and education inroads.

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/929478378/understanding-the-2020-electorate-ap-votecast-survey

[psychprofessor]

So a question for y'all:

*Immediately* following GWB's over-performance with Hispanics (but particularly Latinos) in 2004, were GOP'ers confident that these gains would hold for future cycles?

(I was nine at the time, so a tad bit young for such demographical analysis hehe.)

Yes, and Bush tried to cement this with passing immigration reform in his second term, which failed miserably. That lead to open revolt against McCain in 2008 (because of his support for the 2005 bill) and Romney's tight rope dance with self deportation in 2012.