2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Calthrina950]

It's looking like Trump could very well win Florida. I expressed my concerns about this state just the other day, and we may be seeing them come to light. Of course, Biden doesn't need to win Florida to win the election, but this is a concerning development.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah, Trump probably narrowly wins Florida (despite doing worse in a lot of areas outside of Miami), but losing Florida isn't the end for Biden, not by a longshot.

2018 really is rearing it's ugly head in this aspect.

[Calthrina950]

2018 is happening again in Florida. Just like Nelson and Gillum, Biden has apparently flipped Duval and Seminole Counties, and is improving in Pinellas/Hillsborough compared to Clinton. However, this massive swing to Trump in Miami-Dade appears to be canceling that out. The last time a Democrat did this poorly in Miami-Dade was in 2004, when John Kerry won it 52.9-46.6% against George W. Bush; Bush won Florida by 5% that year, a solid margin for such a close state. With this kind of performance in Miami-Dade, I don't think Biden is going to win Florida.

[Calthrina950]

2018 is happening again in Florida. Just like Nelson and Gillum, Biden has apparently flipped Duval and Seminole Counties, and is improving in Pinellas/Hillsborough compared to Clinton. However, this massive swing to Trump in Miami-Dade appears to be canceling that out. The last time a Democrat did this poorly in Miami-Dade was in 2004, when John Kerry won it 52.9-46.6% against George W. Bush; Bush won Florida by 5% that year, a solid margin for such a close state. With this kind of performance in Miami-Dade, I don't think Biden is going to win Florida.

Adding to this, I saw an exit poll on ABC(?) stating that 54% of Floridians approve of Trump's job performance. This should have been a warning for how the state would go, and seems to be going.

[Calthrina950]

I still think Biden is going to win, but it's clear at this point that the electorate was once again misjudged. Those polls showing Biden up by double digits were not the actual reality. If anything, I'm thinking that Biden will probably win by closer to 5% than 10% at this rate, especially if Trump holds all of Florida, Texas, and Georgia.

[Calthrina950]

This doesn't look good for Biden.

Everybody making fun of me for being a doomer is looking pretty bad right now.

If after everything, Trump wins again or makes it close, I'm not going to trust the polls again. This is seeming like a 2016 redux.

[Calthrina950]

This doesn't look good for Biden.

Everybody making fun of me for being a doomer is looking pretty bad right now.

If after everything, Trump wins again or makes it close, I'm not going to trust the polls again. This is seeming like a 2016 redux.

Except the FL polls were all over the place--and I'd been saying all election not to trust them because the state always does whatever it wants in the end.

And you were right. I had predicted Florida as a narrow Biden win, but as I said the other day, I anticipated that this state could go either way, with the Miami-Dade vs. outstate swings that we saw in 2018. And as in 2018, it appears that the Miami-Dade swing has prevailed, and will hand Florida to Trump.

[Calthrina950]

This doesn't look good for Biden.

Everybody making fun of me for being a doomer is looking pretty bad right now.

If after everything, Trump wins again or makes it close, I'm not going to trust the polls again. This is seeming like a 2016 redux.

Except the FL polls were all over the place--and I'd been saying all election not to trust them because the state always does whatever it wants in the end.

And you were right. I had predicted Florida as a narrow Biden win, but as I said the other day, I anticipated that this state could go either way, with the Miami-Dade vs. outstate swings that we saw in 2018. And as in 2018, it appears that the Miami-Dade swing has prevailed, and will hand Florida to Trump.

Not really wanting credit but more that it's not a great reason to not trust the polls in general, as long as the remaining states are within the MoE.

Florida's just a really bad state in general to figure out until the votes are actually in.

I understand your point. Already, the way I view elections is changing due to these early results.

[Calthrina950]

So are the Dems going to lose Texas because the Rio Grande swung like 30% against them?

Texas looks like it is going to resemble the 2018 result. O'Rourke did worse in the Rio Grande Valley than Clinton, won Harris County by an underwhelming margin, came within single digits in Denton/Collin, narrowly won Williamson, virtually tied Tarrant with Cruz...and all of these results are happening tonight. Hence, I believe Trump will narrowly hold the state.

[Calthrina950]

Just wait: NM will be surprisingly close.

I believe it. Perhaps a high single-digit margin for Biden?

[Calthrina950]

Biden didn’t take „Latinos for granted“.

It’s more a combination of Latinos not wanting more of their folk coming into the US illegally when they themselves came often legally and stick to the rules, buying more and more into Trumps tough immigration rhetoric. Also, many Latinos are machos.

Biden took Latinos for granted. His outreach was consistently terrible during the primaries and we've little reason to believe that changed during the GE. Even in FL where they were much less drawn to Sanders, Bloomberg polled well (often better than Biden).

This sounds almost like Bill Nelson's 2018 Senatorial campaign-and we're seeing a very similar outcome.

[Calthrina950]

Biden comes within 6 points in Douglas County, Colorado with 98% in.

And it appears Biden has flipped both Garfield and Pueblo, as I predicted. He has already been projected as the winner in Colorado by ABC News. Both Trump and Gardner are getting blown out here.

[Calthrina950]

Biden-Harris wins, but closely.....

If Biden retires in '24, Harris needs to do better with black men.......

On ABC News, they were discussing Biden's weaknesses with black voters. As a black man myself, I detest Kamala Harris, and voted for Biden in spite of her. This is definitely an area of concern for Democrats moving forward.

[Calthrina950]

In other news.. 90% of Atlas analysis should be disregarded.

I certainly agree with this now. I'm actually kicking myself for believing that Biden could win by low double digit.

[Calthrina950]

Ohio is done.

yeahhhh

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1323818054267084801?s=20

Trump is apparently flipping Lorain County, Ohio, which Clinton narrowly won last time. That gives us at least one Clinton-Trump county.

[Calthrina950]

Trump has won.

Not yet. I still think Biden is a narrow favorite, but a Trump victory would not surprise me at all at this point.

[Calthrina950]

Even if Biden squeaks by with PA, WI, MI, tonight has been a real kick in the d.

Those polls showing Biden up by 10% were truly a mirage. He'll be lucky to win even by the 7-8% margin that I had predicted for him.

[Calthrina950]

Bullock leading by 1.5% in exit polling

This is some good news. Perhaps Bullock might make up for Cunningham.

[Calthrina950]

Not sure if this has been said on here, but the NYT has projected Graham as the winner in South Carolina, which is what I expected to happen. Jaime Harrison, nevertheless, ran a very strong campaign.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323825868897243136?s=20

A somewhat surprising result-most thought Mucrasel-Powell was favored, but that Gimenez had a real shot. It's clear that he and Salazar-who is running very close to Shalala-benefited heavily from the pro-Trump swing in Miami-Dade.

[Calthrina950]

CO has 2.7 million votes counted already.

Biden +17

Kanye West at 0.2%

CO is one of the bright spots in this horrible night.

Biden is breaking 60% in Arapahoe County, and he is within single digits in both Douglas and El Paso Counties. This is why he's winning Colorado by so much. However, Trump appears to be holding Huerfano, Las Animas, and Conejos-confirming that Southern Colorado is continuing its movement towards the Republicans.

[Calthrina950]

This election is not 1980-it's 1976.

[Calthrina950]

This election is not 1980-it's 1976.

Is Lillian Carter gonna show up and reveal her Biden Won 2020 t-shirt?

I'd wish, but no.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/BrockEWTurner/status/1323831891364061185

Trump is also winning Valencia County, which has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1952. However, I'm thinking Valencia and Vigo both lose their bellwether status this election, if Biden wins narrowly like I expect him to.

[Calthrina950]

Trump held Robeson County by a substantial margin. I'm not sure to what extent Biden's endorsement of federal recognition for the Lumbee tribe helped him there. Every vote is critical in a race as close as this. And thus far, we have not seen any truly surprising outcomes in the Senate races. Marshall in Kansas and Graham in South Carolina have both won, as has Cornyn in Texas, thus taking reach seats out of contention for Democrats.