So Russia and Georgia just went to war

[The Mikado]

No comment at this hour, but I am closely monitoring this story.

[The Mikado]

Time for problematic semiaccurate historical comparisons...my forte.

This reminds me of the recent Israel-Hezbollah War (Summer 2006).  Of course, Russia is a far more influential country than Israel, but hear me out.  Just like the 2006 war, Putin has a limited amount of time to accomplish his goals before the international community is forced to act.  He needs to make South Ossetian "independence" a reality before the war ends.  He needs to scare Saakashvilli well enough that Georgia will shy away from opposing Russian interests.  He needs to reassert his hegemony over the Caucasus.  If he can do all of this within the next few days, this will be a decisive Russian victory.  If he can't, the international community will be forced to "act."

[The Mikado]

So, what do you guys think the chances of Russian tanks rolling into Tbilisi are?

Moderate to high.  Russia is scared.

The Defense Ministry claims they have no plans to attack Tblisi, but who knows if they find someone to "invite" them in.

I think they just bombed it?

There's a big difference between bombing a city and attempting to occupy it.  If the Russians do occupy Tbilisi, they won't leave.

I'm fully expecting permanent Russian garrisons around Georgia, a pliant client state installed, Abkhaz "independence," and South Ossetia very possibly annexed to Russia.

[The Mikado]

Russians forcing regime change in Georgia by force won't work.  Both the people of Georgia and the international community will just write it off as a puppet government.  Russia would've been better off trying to pressure a regime change with old fashioned KGB tactics (like they do in Ukraine) than forcing it.

It'd be a pariah, but Belarus and Uzbekistan are pariahs, and Russia's fine with that as long as they are pro-Russian pariahs.