Why is Katie Porter throwing away a house seat?

[Tekken_Guy]

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Nah, if she advances to the general, she’s the clear favorite

No she’s not.

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Baugh is a weak candidate who vastly underperformed Dahle in his seat.

Baugh was outspent by Porter by a lot, and the seat was considered a giant reach in 2022. This time around the GOP is united around him, there's a vicious contest for the Democratic nomination, and the seat is more of a Republican target. I don't think there's a House seat getting thrown away here or anything, but it would obviously have been more convenient for Democrats if Porter ran for reelection.

Hopefully this progresses to a Schiff vs. Garvey general like the polls have been showing and we can be rid of her.

Trump is unlikely to do nearly as well as Dahle did here though. He lost it by 11 in 2020.

[Minnesota Mike]

You could ask the same question for a dozen or so Reps who lose every cycle when running for a higher office. Why is Barbara Lee throwing away a House seat?

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Why does any one that isn’t term limited run for any office?

Because they want to and often because they see a chance to win. And sometimes, just sometimes, maybe they want to do good things.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's over 3/5/24

[Open Source Intelligence]

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Because there's only 20 or so people in the House that have real political power. The rest of them are told what to say, do, and think by leadership.

[Cyrusman]

Also:

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

This is not a thing. That's like saying that Democrats would be more likely to vote for the Republican in NY-03 because she's a black woman or that Republicans would be drawn to her opponent who was a white man...and clearly neither happened.

That's different. That's a D vs an R. This is a D vs a D. If your a republican, it's a no win situation, so you'll vote for the one thats demographic /vibe fits you're liking.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Also:

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

This is not a thing. That's like saying that Democrats would be more likely to vote for the Republican in NY-03 because she's a black woman or that Republicans would be drawn to her opponent who was a white man...and clearly neither happened.

That's different. That's a D vs an R. This is a D vs a D. If your a republican, it's a no win situation, so you'll vote for the one thats demographic /vibe fits you're liking.

A lot of them just won’t vote in the senate race, but enough will to potentially swing the race one way or another. Given how much Schiff has based his run on his investigations into Trump, I suspect that the voting Republicans would lean towards Porter.

[Mr. Smith]

You could ask the same question for a dozen or so Reps who lose every cycle when running for a higher office. Why is Barbara Lee throwing away a House seat?

Lee is old, I suspect she wanted this to be a swan song on her way out.

Porter is considerably younger.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also:

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

This is not a thing. That's like saying that Democrats would be more likely to vote for the Republican in NY-03 because she's a black woman or that Republicans would be drawn to her opponent who was a white man...and clearly neither happened.

That's different. That's a D vs an R. This is a D vs a D. If your a republican, it's a no win situation, so you'll vote for the one thats demographic /vibe fits you're liking.

But Schiff is one of the most demonized Democrats in the House due to his role in the Russia investigation. He's not just some generic white Democrat (although he probably will be in the Senate.)

Also Porter is exactly the same demographically except she's a woman. Does that mean that female Republicans will be voting for Porter? If so that's not much an advantage?

I think the obvious answer is that Porter had a good chance when she announced but has ran a lousy campaign since.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

You can't launch a national campaign from a House seat. She's clearly very ambitious and this was her best shot at becoming a Senator and getting the position she needs for a future Presidential run.

If Baugh manages to win because of Min's DUI then she has an easy path back to the House too. She could also run for Governor, but her Whiteboard shtick really only works for a legislative body.

Yeah I am worried about Min but fortunately for us, there's a chance he might not be the nominee. Weiss is running a really agressive campaign

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Looks like it'll be Baugh vs. Min. Definitely a top-tier Republican pickup opportunity, and I'd even say they're favored to flip the seat now.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Katie Porter's parting gift.  She couldn't waste $100MM of Democratic funds running an endless primary in CA-SEN but she can at least throw CA-47 to the GOP.

[Minnesota Mike]

So what's next for Porter?

-Try for her old seat in 2026 if Republicans flip it this year?
-Run in CA-40* in 2026? She lives just outside the borders of the district and represented much of it before redistricting.
-Run statewide. Gov, LG, AG (2030)?
-Run for a different county/state post? Not unheard of for former members of congress to take these well paying gigs.
-Retire for now from politics and go back to teaching?

*edited. Had wrong district.

[Cyrusman]

So what's next for Porter?

-Try for her old seat in 2026 if Republicans flip it this year?
-Run in CA-40* in 2026? She lives just outside the borders of the district and represented much of it before redistricting.
-Run statewide. Gov, LG, AG (2030)?
-Run for a different county/state post? Not unheard of for former members of congress to take these well paying gigs.
-Retire for now from politics and go back to teaching?

*edited. Had wrong district.
[/quote

As a resident of Orange County, CA, hopefully this options. Still don't understanding her choice. Even though I dislike her, she would have easily won reelection.

[Cyrusman]

So what's next for Porter?

-Try for her old seat in 2026 if Republicans flip it this year?
-Run in CA-40* in 2026? She lives just outside the borders of the district and represented much of it before redistricting.
-Run statewide. Gov, LG, AG (2030)?
-Run for a different county/state post? Not unheard of for former members of congress to take these well paying gigs.
-Retire for now from politics and go back to teaching?

*edited. Had wrong district.

As a resident of Orange County, CA, hopefully this options. Still don't understanding her choice. Even though I dislike her, she would have easily won reelection.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The Superintendent of Education is going to be vacant in 2026, I could see her running for that