WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Mr.Phips]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Also results in a prior race don’t always make someone a weak or strong candidate.  Susan Collins came in a poor third in the Maine governors race in 1994 before winning a senate seat in 1996.

[Mr.Phips]

I'm guessing Ron Kind or Mark Pocan runs, and they'd definitely be better candidates. Both would definitely start out as underdogs, though, and Democrats would probably need this to be an atypical midterm to have a real shot here. Anyone who knows me know I'm no fan of Johnson, but he won't be easy to beat at all in a Democratic midterm.

Also, man, I miss Feingold.

I could see Dem leadership preferring a Greenfield-like candidate here rather than a sitting member of Congress - they won't want Kind vacating his seat in a Biden midterm, and Pocan vacating could create a crowded, messy primary in a seat that a squad-type could certainly win.

I don’t like the idea at all of taking people like Kind, Axne, and Finkenbuar out of swing House seats for a very uphill Senate run.

I also don’t like the idea of taking Katie Porter out of a swing House seat for Kamala Harris’ Senate seat as pretty much any Dem can win California without costing Dems a House seat (although I think they need to replace Harris with a woman of color).

[Mr.Phips]

I'm guessing Ron Kind or Mark Pocan runs, and they'd definitely be better candidates. Both would definitely start out as underdogs, though, and Democrats would probably need this to be an atypical midterm to have a real shot here. Anyone who knows me know I'm no fan of Johnson, but he won't be easy to beat at all in a Democratic midterm.

Also, man, I miss Feingold.

I could see Dem leadership preferring a Greenfield-like candidate here rather than a sitting member of Congress - they won't want Kind vacating his seat in a Biden midterm, and Pocan vacating could create a crowded, messy primary in a seat that a squad-type could certainly win.

I don’t like the idea at all of taking people like Kind, Axne, and Finkenbuar out of swing House seats for a very uphill Senate run.

I also don’t like the idea of taking Katie Porter out of a swing House seat for Kamala Harris’ Senate seat as pretty much any Dem can win California without costing Dems a House seat (although I think they need to replace Harris with a woman of color).

Odds are, Kind, Axne, and Finkenauer are DOA in a Biden midterm anyway. If we're gonna lose their sets anyway, we might as well try and get a Senate seat out of it.

That strategy basically means Democrats are giving up on the House before the 2022 election even begins.

[Mr.Phips]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

No, it's not winnable in a Biden midterm, period.

Republicans would be heavily favoured but I don't think you can say it's already safe R given the kinds of overperformances relative to the environment (even with trends on the wrong side, in some case) in recent Senate cycles. Cory Gardner 2014, Sherrod Brown 2018 etc all come to mind.

Gardner and Brown both won in very favorable years for their parties.

[Mr.Phips]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

No, it's not winnable in a Biden midterm, period.

Republicans would be heavily favoured but I don't think you can say it's already safe R given the kinds of overperformances relative to the environment (even with trends on the wrong side, in some case) in recent Senate cycles. Cory Gardner 2014, Sherrod Brown 2018 etc all come to mind.

Gardner and Brown both won in very favorable years for their parties.

I picked those two seats because both were trending away from the victors and probably had a baseline quite unfavourable to these victors in both cases (as evidenced at least in part by the downballot results in those states - Hickenloopoer, DeWine, etc.). I'll leave out MT because it's politically quixotic and MO because of the exceptionally poor Republican candidate, but one could also consider IN and ND in 2012 (they were won in a less polarised time, but already those states had a heavier Republican lean than the one WI might have in 2022). Democrats didn't win MO in 2016, but a Kanderesque overperformance probably wouldn't be needed to put a WI Dem over the line.

All of these were in favorable (or neutral) environments.  In a wave environment (which 2022 will likely be), no non incumbent is overcoming the lean/trend of a state (except Joe Manchin in 2010 when Dems were still incredibly strong downballot).

[Mr.Phips]

What are the odds of 2022 turning into a Republican 2018, and this seat goes the way of Bill Nelson?

Florida is to the right of the country is a whole and so is Wisconsin. 

[Mr.Phips]

I expect Ron Kind to run, since he is basically guaranteed to lose if he runs for another house term.

He’s got a better shot at winning his House seat than winning statewide, unless his district gets more Republican in redistricting.

[Mr.Phips]

he might be too liberal to win, I think Kind or Barnes(maybe?) has the best shot

Kind is better off trying to hold his House seat (unless redistricting makes it even worse for him).  He’s not winning statewide in a midterm.