Beginning of the End of Northern Ireland?

[Frodo]

Everything is pointing in the direction of a reunified Ireland -already Northern Ireland is split half-and-half on the question, and the demographics are in favor.  I am willing to bet that by 2030 (assuming the groundwork has been laid by then), if a referendum were to be held on whether Northern Ireland would unite with the Irish Republic, there would be a clear majorities in both Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic in favor:

The beginning of the end of Northern Ireland?
Northern Irish politics is shifting decisively in favour of Irish unity.

 

[Frodo]

Sounds like common sense:

Clear roadmap must be in place prior to any Irish unity referendum, say academics

Referendums on the future of the island of Ireland should be held only with a clear roadmap of what follows afterwards, according to a report by a group of prominent academics.

They said that a poll would have to be held in the Republic if Northern Ireland voted in favour of unification, although the two referendums could be held on the same day.

In deciding to call a border poll here, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland must “act with conspicuous care and transparent honesty and so maintain public trust”.

They would have to “reflect on a range of evidence: notably election results, opinion polls – bearing in mind the reliability of different sorts of polling – and any votes in the Northern Ireland Assembly".

The working group on unification referendums on the island of Ireland was established by University College London’s (UCL) constitution unit.

It was set up to examine how any future referendums on whether Northern Ireland would stay in the UK or become part of a united Ireland could best be designed and conducted.

[Frodo]

More than half of people in North want referendum on a united Ireland
Half of people in Scotland also want an independence referendum, according to a new opinion poll.

JUST OVER HALF of people in Northern Ireland want a referendum on Irish unity in the next five years, according to a new opinion poll.

The Sunday Times commissioned polls in Northern Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales to gauge people’s views on the future of the United Kingdom.

In Northern Ireland, 47% of people surveyed want to remain in the UK, while 42% of people are in favour of a united Ireland and 11% are undecided.

When asked if they supported a border poll being held in the next five years, 51% said yes and 44% said no.

Among people under the age of 45, supporters of Irish reunification lead by 47% to 46%.

More people in Northern Ireland also think there will be a united Ireland within 10 years, by a margin of 48% to 44%.

If anyone has a subscription to the Sunday Times, that would be lovely.  

[Frodo]

More than half of people in North want referendum on a united Ireland
Half of people in Scotland also want an independence referendum, according to a new opinion poll.

JUST OVER HALF of people in Northern Ireland want a referendum on Irish unity in the next five years, according to a new opinion poll.

The Sunday Times commissioned polls in Northern Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales to gauge people’s views on the future of the United Kingdom.

In Northern Ireland, 47% of people surveyed want to remain in the UK, while 42% of people are in favour of a united Ireland and 11% are undecided.

When asked if they supported a border poll being held in the next five years, 51% said yes and 44% said no.

Among people under the age of 45, supporters of Irish reunification lead by 47% to 46%.

More people in Northern Ireland also think there will be a united Ireland within 10 years, by a margin of 48% to 44%.

If anyone has a subscription to the Sunday Times, that would be lovely.  

Thanks!

I'd rather Northern Ireland waits until around 2030 before holding a referendum even if there is a (bare) majority for it now.  I don't see any need to rush into it without the necessary preparation for reunification.  

[Frodo]

To everyone concerned about possible terrorism on the part of desperate Protestant paramilitaries in the event of Irish reunification -how do you feel about having the United Kingdom offering sanctuary (for lack of a better word) in Britain to all Northern Irish Protestants who cannot countenance living under the Irish Republic, especially for those who can't otherwise afford to move?  After all, presumably they are already British citizens, and therefore they don't need visas.  

[Frodo]

It appears the British (at the very least) won't mind seeing the end of Northern Ireland as a distinct political entity, as it would be one less burden they have to deal with:

Shock poll in Britain shows 30 percent want Irish unity
Another 38% of respondents said that they neither supported nor opposed Irish unity, while only 11% were opposed to the idea.

[Frodo]

They may want to have a referendum vote sometime this decade, but that will only happen if at least 50% of them support reunification with Ireland, per the Good Friday Agreement:

Majority of Northern Irish voters want vote on staying in UK

Two-thirds of voters in Northern Ireland believe there should be a vote over its place in the UK, but only 37% want it to take place within the next five years, according to a new poll for the Observer.

Some 31% of voters said there should be a vote at some point about Northern Ireland’s place in the UK but after 2026, the LucidTalk poll found. A further 29% said there should never be such a vote. There is currently a seven-point lead for Northern Ireland remaining part of the UK should any vote take place.

Asked to state how they would vote, 49% said they would back remaining in the UK, while 42% backed being part of a united Ireland, with 9% saying they did not know. Other recent surveys have put support for a united Ireland much lower. The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey, published in June, suggested that 30% backed a united Ireland.

[Frodo]

Time is clearly on the nationalist side -they just have to campaign hard for it to make reunification a reality:

Border poll: Voters in Northern Ireland under 45 would opt for a united Ireland says survey

Voters in Northern Ireland under the age of 45 would opt for a united Ireland, according to a new poll.

However, more people overall would vote for the north to remain part of the UK if a border poll was held now.

The LucidTalk survey for the Belfast Telegraph found that 49% of respondents were in favour of staying in the UK with 39% choosing Irish unity.

But a united Ireland proved to be the most popular choice for people aged under 45, while respondents who were middle-aged and pensioners showed the strongest support for the Union.

The poll comes amid increasing debate on the constitutional question.

[Frodo]

It is a good idea not to rush this:

United Ireland forecast to cost at least £6.8bn, report says

Uniting Ireland is forecast to cost in the region of at least €8bn (£6.86bn) annually and could potentially increase to €20bn (£17.15bn) a year, according to a study by a Dublin-based think tank.

The analysis by the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) looks at how much the north would need to be subsidised in the event of Irish unity.

Professor John Fitzgerald, one of the report’s two authors, said the cost of absorbing Northern Ireland into a new 32-county state would put pressure on finances and likely lead to an “immediate, major reduction” in the population’s living standards.

Together with co-author Prof Edgar Morgenroth, the analysis suggests the cost of unification could be substantially reduced if significant changes were made to the structure of the north’s economy that would raise its productivity.

Prof Morgenroth said some of the costs of integration would eventually be offset by the benefits of unity but that this would take “some considerable time”.

In case anyone is curious, in 2009 it was calculated that it cost $1.9 trillion (or 1.3 trillion euros) to reunite Germany.