Marquette poll of WI: Biden+5

[Gass3268]

I would also like to see a NYT/Siena poll here. Their methods are similar to Marquette, but their screen is a little less tight.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313897198522900481?s=20

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313897581492273156?s=20

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313896242947260417?s=20

[redjohn]

Seems that WI is inching closer to becoming the tipping-point state as PA swings into Biden's column.

A bit of an overreaction to one poll. We've had multiple other high quality polls of Wisconsin closer to the 6-8 range.

Recent high-quality polls have shown the race in PA is more like Biden+8, whereas Wisconsin is probably slightly to the right of that. Could change, but Biden is favored in either state. Just thinking that WI possibly puts Biden over the top.

Winning without WI is far easier than winning without PA, so I think Biden would take that trade.  Not to mention the resumption of clear Biden leads in Florida in the last week or so of polling. 

MU Law seems to always have about this margin for Biden regardless of how the national polls are swinging.  Points for consistency.

That's true. If FL goes to Biden, talk of WI/AZ is pretty much pointless. I'm operating under the assumption that FL is and always has been a tossup, despite polling favoring Biden recently. I could end up being wrong, but the state that went to Republicans in a Trump midterm is almost certainly not giving Biden any impressive margin.

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313897198522900481?s=20

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313897581492273156?s=20

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313896242947260417?s=20

All pretty good signs for Biden, even if the topline isn't great for him.

[wbrocks67]

If Biden has +3 favorable and Trump is -8 on approval then Biden definitely has more upside here.

[ExSky]

I would imagine this is closer to the final result...

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313893642080264194

I wouldn’t.  If your not solid Biden after this absolutely AWFUL week for Trump, what is going to make you decide him at the end?

Lmfao so this is the poll that’s locked in for you and none of the other ones?

[Buzz]

I would imagine this is closer to the final result...

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313893642080264194

I wouldn’t.  If your not solid Biden after this absolutely AWFUL week for Trump, what is going to make you decide him at the end?

Lmfao so this is the poll that’s locked in for you and none of the other ones?

They don’t call it the Gold Standard for no reason...

[redjohn]

I would imagine this is closer to the final result...

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313893642080264194

I wouldn’t.  If your not solid Biden after this absolutely AWFUL week for Trump, what is going to make you decide him at the end?

Lmfao so this is the poll that’s locked in for you and none of the other ones?

They don’t call it the Gold Standard for no reason...

The gold standard right across the border in IA showed Biden with 47% of the vote there, though. Biden is probably not as low as 46% in WI if he's tied with a higher number in IA.

[Gass3268]

I would imagine this is closer to the final result...

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313893642080264194

I wouldn’t.  If your not solid Biden after this absolutely AWFUL week for Trump, what is going to make you decide him at the end?

Lmfao so this is the poll that’s locked in for you and none of the other ones?

They don’t call it the Gold Standard for no reason...

Yeah, we have no reason to discredit it. Maybe add a point or two to Biden given the national environment and other polling here. Someone had a decent method of taking the most recent Marquette Poll and then averaging it with polling average. I think that works.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1313893749756489728

The trend is interesting.

[redjohn]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1313893749756489728

The trend is interesting.

If Biden closes the campaign strong, preferably with a final debate performance where Trump melts down and Biden scores more TV-worthy moments, he can win WI by a decent margin. Trump's path to winning relies on low turnout in Milwaukee and big swings to Trump among rural areas to make up for the swings towards Biden that will likely occur in Dane+WOW.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

This looks like a 2016 poll.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This looks like a 2016 poll.

Too much for my liking

[ProudModerate2]

I believe Biden will win WI by about +6/7, so it's about right.

[Gass3268]

47-42 when leaners are pushed. Also no difference between registered and likely voters.

[TC 25]

Not really indicative of a 10-point or 15-point national race.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Best poll for Trump all week, am I’m being 100% serious.

I agree. It shows that WI is certainly not gone for Trump.

[DaleCooper]

The undecideds seem weird to me, but Marquette has IIRC been consistently showing high numbers of Jorgensen, which I don't believe is accurate for a second. Throw it in the average, but I'm not concerned.

[Gass3268]

Undecideds appear to lean Democratic.

They are younger, widowed/never married, black or hispanic (whites are 100% decided), moderate or liberal, live in the City of Milwaukee.

[Ljube]

Four years ago, Marquette:

Clinton 44
Trump 37
Johnson 9
Stein 3

[New York En Marche!]

I would also like to see a NYT/Siena poll here. Their methods are similar to Marquette, but their screen is a little less tight.

Luckily Times/Siena is doing Wisconsin and Michigan next week

[It’s so Joever]

This is terrible for Biden...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

47-42 when leaners are pushed. Also no difference between registered and likely voters.

With leaners:

Biden 47% (-1)
Trump 42% (-2)
Jorgensen 4% (n/c)
Refused 1% (-1)
None/other 1% (+1)
Don't know 1% (-1)

[Xing]

Makes sense if Biden is up by 8 or so nationally. I don't see how this is "bad" for Biden when Marquette was very good in 2018 (they had a tie in the gubernatorial race and Baldwin +10 in the Senate race.) They do need to push undecideds more, though.

[wbrocks67]

Not really indicative of a 10-point or 15-point national race.

It's one poll.