VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Jeppe]

Virginia flipped blue in 2016 at 9:55 PM Eastern, for reference.

[Jeppe]

Loudoun County (NOVA suburb): 10am check indicates 34,759 voters of 242,313 total reg voters. 14.34% turnout.

[Jeppe]

Prince George County, VA estimates 19% turnout @ 10am - SE of City of Petersburg and greater Richmond area

City of Alexandria at 10am - 26,285 total votes (includes 6,151 absentee) = 29.04% turnout #VirginiaElection #VAGov

Turnout for Albemarle County (surrounding City of Charlottesville) 9 AM turnout check was 14.02% of registered voters. #Election2017  #VAGov

City of Petersburg turnout @ 9 am was 12% (includes absentee’s) #VirginiaElection #VAGov

[Jeppe]

The 10am check with City of Richmond, Virginia has 17% turnout on average #VirginiaElections #VAGovRace #Election2017 

[Jeppe]

So, from the very little data we have, it seems like turrnout is very high in NoVa, staggering in black areas, and really staggering in rural white areas.

[Jeppe]

Fairfax City voters are turning out to vote today. 3,412 voters before 11 a.m. We are at 29% including absentee. Impressive #ElectionDay 

[Jeppe]

So, from the very little data we have, it seems like turrnout is very high in NoVa, staggering in black areas, and really staggering in rural white areas.

Where you getting the rural thing from? I haven't seen any tweets on that

Somebody posted about Bristol, a small 70% Republican southwest Virginia city. Their turnout was half of Fairfax City at 11 am.

[Jeppe]

So, from the very little data we have, it seems like turrnout is very high in NoVa, staggering in black areas, and really staggering in rural white areas.

Where you getting the rural thing from? I haven't seen any tweets on that

Somebody posted about Bristol, a small 70% Republican southwest Virginia city. Their turnout was half of Fairfax City at 11 am.

Staggering means overwhelming

It also means unsteady too, but you’re right, bad choice of words.

[Jeppe]

James City County (Williamsburg area) in Virginia had 12.69% turnout @ 9 Next check noon. #Election2017  #VirginiaElections

[Jeppe]

I'm starting a Google docs spreadsheet to better track turnout and compare them against other turnout in other counties.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kwE1_XMLOZy-WWDRS5Jzf1I-anVbT2OH7w1g4QFL_Zs/edit?usp=sharing

[Jeppe]

Turnout in Arlington is now 37% at noon.

[Jeppe]

If poll turnout is at 29% and absentee turnout is 8%, total turnout should be 37% right? Arlington is throwing me off a bit.

[Jeppe]

42% of actual turnout or of 2013 turnout?

Actual turnout, 42% of registered voters have voted.

[Jeppe]

Keep in mind that Falls Church is tiny though. Alexandria, Arlington, and Fairfax are where the votes are. The small independent cities like Falls Church are only a few thousand votes.

[Jeppe]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kwE1_XMLOZy-WWDRS5Jzf1I-anVbT2OH7w1g4QFL_Zs/edit#gid=0

I'm keeping track of turnout reports here too, for reference.

[Jeppe]

I wouldn't suggest other side focus too much on anecdotal turnout reports but that's just me I guess, both sides are hyping it up for a let down

It's not really anecdotal if they're coming from the county itself, and reporting for the entire county, not just individual precincts.

[Jeppe]

What is the pundit prediction for the 13th HoD district?

Danica Roem outraised the incumbent $800k to $350k, so she has a fairly good shot. Clinton beat Trump by 14 points in the district, so it gives Roem some room to breathe too.

[Jeppe]

Including absentee and early votes, Fairfax County is at 36.7% turnout at 2 pm.

[Jeppe]

Honestly, things seem pretty similar to 2013. I don't think I'd call it a Democratic victory yet, at least not till we see turnout reports after working hours.

[Jeppe]

Jonathan Martin‏ @jmartNYT  6m6 minutes ago
Precinct check-in!

Rosslyn in Arlington Co (#19)

‘13:1326 votes
As of 3:15 today: 1132 votes

Steady line of voters in rain, mostly women

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/927995226865766406

That's my precinct !

[Jeppe]

When was the last time a D won statewide by 10 points or more? I honestly have no idea. Chuck Robb in 1988, maybe?

I think this counts, no?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2013

Not to mention Mark Warner in 2008.