2022 Estimated Generic Ballot by State

[prag_prog]

2022 Estimated Generic Ballot by state after taking into account for uncontested races and top 2 primary races that had same party candidates. This was done by SplitTicket folks - https://split-ticket.org/2022/12/12/estimating-2022s-generic-ballot

This has national generic ballot as R+1.6. Tipping point state would be Wisconsin at R+1.7, only 0.1 points to the right of national generic ballot.

[prag_prog]

One thing which I was bit surprised looking at this was NC being to the left of GA and only 2.7 points to the right of National generic ballot. In 2018, it was around 7 points to the right of national GB. In 2020, it was around 5-6 points to the right whereas this year, it's only 2.7 points to the right of national GB despite pretty poor Black turnout.

[prag_prog]

Also CCM survived in a very tough environment in Nevada

[prag_prog]

Also CCM survived in a very tough environment in Nevada

Largely attributable to Amodei's overperformance in Washoe County.

I am kind of surprised at Pennsylvania, even accounting for Fitzpatrick. I guess Lee underperformed as well. Generally other Democratic incumbents did better than Biden.

PA Electorate definitely wasn't that Dem leaning..it still had a pretty decent Dem turnout for a midterm under Dem President but it seems quite obvious that Shapiro & Fetterman's big wins were mainly due to persuasion. Someone on did math on twitter and said that Fetterman's margin would have been roughly 7 points if turnout in each county was similar to 2020

[prag_prog]

One thing which I was bit surprised looking at this was NC being to the left of GA and only 2.7 points to the right of National generic ballot. In 2018, it was around 7 points to the right of national GB. In 2020, it was around 5-6 points to the right whereas this year, it's only 2.7 points to the right of national GB despite pretty poor Black turnout.

I wouldn't read too much into this because the NC map was much more competitive, likely leading to greater Dem effort there. 

In general, this was a very Republican year in the South.  Even the VA margin was closer than Obama 2012.

hmm I don't think this map was that much more competitive than 2018, 2020. There were like just 2 districts with final margin <10 points. Also the effort put in NC was much lower than whatever effort Dems put in GA, AZ, NV etc. Even in Senate races, despite Budd's margin being 1.6 points more than Trump, he still underperformed Trump in Western NC and few counties in Central NC. This is despite Black turnout being quite abysmal in NC...NC counties with high Black % were the counties where Budd drastically overperformed Trump.