Can Romney win without Florida? Discuss with maps etc.

[morgieb]

Well can he?

Because his path's looking a lot harder with Ryan as the Veep.

[krazen1211]

Nope. Ohio is optional, Florida is mandatory. It's a good thing that the people of Florida generally prefer Republicans.

[Adam Griffin]

It's possible, I suppose. Something like this:

Romney 272
Obama 266

Or this:

273 Romney
265 Obama

[BaldEagle1991]

NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

That's like asking if Obama can still win if he lost CA and NY.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This is the absolute best I can see Romney do if he loses Florida, and I doubt he does this well in that event.

Obama: 272
Romney: 266

Florida just has too many EVs and was won too narrowly by Obama last time for Romney to be able to win nationally while losing Florida.

[Brittain33]

Nope. Ohio is optional, Florida is mandatory. It's a good thing that the people of Florida generally prefer Republicans.

They like Medicare even more.

[Donerail]

It's a good thing that the people of Florida generally prefer Republicans.

Really? I seem to recall Florida having a Democratic Senator who's going to win re-election, an extremely unpopular Republican governor, and the state having gone for the Democrats 3 out of the past 4 Presidential elections. The FLGOP is in power in the Legislature, but that's because they've gerrymandered themselves into power and won't relinquish it.

[NHI]

Possible, but not probable.

[Wisconsin+17]

Not gonna happen.

[krazen1211]

It's a good thing that the people of Florida generally prefer Republicans.

Really? I seem to recall Florida having a Democratic Senator who's going to win re-election, an extremely unpopular Republican governor, and the state having gone for the Democrats 3 out of the past 4 Presidential elections. The FLGOP is in power in the Legislature, but that's because they've gerrymandered themselves into power and won't relinquish it.

That's a bizarre line of spin, given that they also have a Republican senator, that Republican governor had to win election in the first place, and unless you are assigning your own results to FL-2000, the 3rd isn't correct either.

[krazen1211]

Nope. Ohio is optional, Florida is mandatory. It's a good thing that the people of Florida generally prefer Republicans.

They like Medicare even more.

That's an interesting hypothesis that has yet to be tested. Not that such is an either/or proposition.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

No, just as he can't win without Ohio.

Face it, electoral vote map is a huge problem for Romney and he needs all those key states to survive.

[DrScholl]

No, that makes the math almost impossible. If he's lost Florida, he's already lost the election.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

No and that is because if Ryan causes a collapse in Florida, it will likely ruin Mitt in NV, CO and AZ, which have large and typically Republican retirement concentrations. That said, I think Ryan can sell himself and that will be his task for the next week or two. When Romney reaches Florida in his four state tour, I would dump Ryan off in the state and have him visit it from end to end over the course of several days. I can think of no better place for him to start his solo tour of the state, then at The Villages.

[Donerail]

It's a good thing that the people of Florida generally prefer Republicans.

Really? I seem to recall Florida having a Democratic Senator who's going to win re-election, an extremely unpopular Republican governor, and the state having gone for the Democrats 3 out of the past 4 Presidential elections. The FLGOP is in power in the Legislature, but that's because they've gerrymandered themselves into power and won't relinquish it.

That's a bizarre line of spin, given that they also have a Republican senator, that Republican governor had to win election in the first place, and unless you are assigning your own results to FL-2000, the 3rd isn't correct either.

Said Republican Senator did not win a majority of the vote, said Republican governor barely squeaked past a poor campaigner in a Republican wave year and only won by blowing millions of his own dollars on the race,  and I'm using what the actual result of the popular vote was after a recount, not after the SCOTUS took it upon themselves to stop democracy.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Is that what caused Gore to lose his own home state?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Sometimes I think Sam isn't an FF. Then I read his posting history.

[Donerail]

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Is that what caused Gore to lose his own home state?

Read under what would happen if a statewide count occurred.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Gore's home state is Florida?

[Thomas D]

Before today I didn't have him winning WITH Florida.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Technically, he could lose Florida and still get 509 EVs, but that's not happening.