French presidential election, 2022

[brucejoel99]

I recall that in the aftermath of the 2nd round in 2017, it was leaked out that then-PM Cazeneuve would literally have not stepped down in favor of Le Pen's preferred PM, NDA, had Le Pen won, & the make-up of Parliament at that time would've enabled him to remain in office through the legislative elections in June, so if it actually happens this time around but Le Pen doesn't win a parliamentary majority, then doesn't her entire term end up being one of her in office, but not in power?

[rob in cal]

  As President, wouldn't Le Pen have the power to have referenda held on various issues, regardless of what an unfriendly national assembly would like?

[Logical]

I voted earlier today, after a very long line-up which took an hour and a half to get through. Cookies for anyone who can guess who I voted for.

Vote Blanc?

[MaxQue]

  As President, wouldn't Le Pen have the power to have referenda held on various issues, regardless of what an unfriendly national assembly would like?

No, a referendum needs President + PM or President + both chambers.

[Canis]

I voted earlier today, after a very long line-up which took an hour and a half to get through. Cookies for anyone who can guess who I voted for.

Jadot?

[Hash]

Polling summary time:

Macron - almost all firms have him on 26%, but a handful push a little higher. None below 26%, none above 28%.

Le Pen - more diversity here: a high of 25% and a low of 21% with most hovering in between the two, generally slightly tilting towards the lower end.

Melenchon - between 16% and 18% with most settling on 17%.

Zemmour - French firms pretty much all have him on a functional 9%, but foreign firms who have had a go show higher figures.

Pecresse - French firms have her on either 9% or 8%, but those foreign firms who have had a go show lower figures.

Jadot - between 4% and 5%.

Roussel - between 2% and 3% with the consensus being a functional 3%.

Lassalle - between 2% and 3%.

Hidalgo - 2%.

Dupont-Aignan - between a functional 2% and 3%.

Poutou - 1%.

Arthaud - microscopic.

What I'm mostly getting here is that there is a lot of herding going on and that even moderate polling errors could upset a lot of apple carts if they were to occur.

An interesting metric measured by the two top pollsters, Ifop and Ipsos, is the 'vote certainty' - about a quarter or a bit less of those certain to vote were still not completely settled on their choice. Macron and Panzergirl have their vote well tied down, with 80-90% of their voters certain of their choice for them; Zemmour and Mélenchon also have pretty solid votes, with 75-80% of their voters certain of voting for them in the end. On the other hand, Pécresse and especially Jadot have a good chunk of their current voters still not completely certain (around 65-70% of Pécresse voters are certain, 45-55% of Jadot voters are certain).

The last big Ifop poll for Le Monde showed the following second choices of those who were uncertain of their choice:



Macron and Mélenchon would appear to be those who stand the best chance of benefiting from Jadot and Pécresse's wavering voters (although Panzergirl can hope that some Zemmour hesitators vote for her strategically). The same poll also showed the low-high ranges if half of the hesitating voters switched to their second choice:

Macron 25-28.5%
Panzergirl 21-24.5%
Mélenchon 15.5-19%
Zemmour 8-10%
Pécresse 7-9.5%
Jadot 4-6%

Jadot?

Congratulations!

[Canis]

Polling summary time:

Macron - almost all firms have him on 26%, but a handful push a little higher. None below 26%, none above 28%.

Le Pen - more diversity here: a high of 25% and a low of 21% with most hovering in between the two, generally slightly tilting towards the lower end.

Melenchon - between 16% and 18% with most settling on 17%.

Zemmour - French firms pretty much all have him on a functional 9%, but foreign firms who have had a go show higher figures.

Pecresse - French firms have her on either 9% or 8%, but those foreign firms who have had a go show lower figures.

Jadot - between 4% and 5%.

Roussel - between 2% and 3% with the consensus being a functional 3%.

Lassalle - between 2% and 3%.

Hidalgo - 2%.

Dupont-Aignan - between a functional 2% and 3%.

Poutou - 1%.

Arthaud - microscopic.

What I'm mostly getting here is that there is a lot of herding going on and that even moderate polling errors could upset a lot of apple carts if they were to occur.

An interesting metric measured by the two top pollsters, Ifop and Ipsos, is the 'vote certainty' - about a quarter or a bit less of those certain to vote were still not completely settled on their choice. Macron and Panzergirl have their vote well tied down, with 80-90% of their voters certain of their choice for them; Zemmour and Mélenchon also have pretty solid votes, with 75-80% of their voters certain of voting for them in the end. On the other hand, Pécresse and especially Jadot have a good chunk of their current voters still not completely certain (around 65-70% of Pécresse voters are certain, 45-55% of Jadot voters are certain).

The last big Ifop poll for Le Monde showed the following second choices of those who were uncertain of their choice:



Macron and Mélenchon would appear to be those who stand the best chance of benefiting from Jadot and Pécresse's wavering voters (although Panzergirl can hope that some Zemmour hesitators vote for her strategically). The same poll also showed the low-high ranges if half of the hesitating voters switched to their second choice:

Macron 25-28.5%
Panzergirl 21-24.5%
Mélenchon 15.5-19%
Zemmour 8-10%
Pécresse 7-9.5%
Jadot 4-6%

Jadot?

Congratulations!

I eagerly await my cookies lol

Also good choice of candidate my knowledge of French politics is limited but Jadot seems like a good guy and isn't a bigot he seems like hed make a great president it's unfortunate he'll probably only get 5%.

If the runoff is Macron vs Melenchon who do you think you'll vote for?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Had a rant about the constant bemoaning of "the death of democracy!!!" but I'll save it for the second round.

Best guess is that Macron will land in the middle to the lower end of his polling at 25% and Le Pen will land very close, maybe even higher thanks to momentum (one consistent trend of recent international polling is understating big swings right before the vote). Then Mélenchon at just under 20%, Zemmour 10%, Pécresse 6%, Jadot 5%

[VPH]

Am I reading that correctly--of the Macron leaners, nearly 20% would second preference Le Pen or Zemmour?

[Benjamin Frank]

How well has Macron actually governed in France?  My understanding, based partly on stereotypes of France, is that he came in with a reformist agenda, but like all French Presidents, was beaten down by the enormous and enormously powerful status quo interests- the farmers, the unions...

The French people, again based on maybe unfair stereotypes, seem collectively to me to be entirely contradictory - they are unhappy with their circumstances, but they resist change and then blame their leaders, rather than themselves for their circumstances.

[brucejoel99]

  As President, wouldn't Le Pen have the power to have referenda held on various issues, regardless of what an unfriendly national assembly would like?

No, a referendum needs President + PM or President + both chambers.

Without a friendly PM/Cabinet/Parliament by her side, wouldn't the powers that lie wholly within her prerogative (i.e., at her whim & hers alone) basically be limited to just dissolving/calling snap Assembly elections, referring laws & treaties to the Constitutional Council, appointing 3 of its 9 members if any presidential vacancies arise during her term, & selecting its President, with everything else - even treaties & military policy - dependent upon the PM's countersignature? I mean, hell, even her legislative "vetoes," such as they are (recommending "reconsideration" of a bill), would be very easily overridden.

On the other hand, Article 16's existence looks more & more problematic the closer & closer that Le Pen gets to the Élysée.

[Hash]

If the runoff is Macron vs Melenchon who do you think you'll vote for?

I have no strong opinions about such a runoff because I strongly dislike both individuals. I'd feel very comfortable and happy voting for April Ludgate (my 2017 first round vote) in this scenario.

I imagine I'll need to hold my nose and immediately vomit in the likely Macron/Le Pen runoff, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I know everyone has already moved on to fretting about the second round results, but I will save that for next week. Right now I'd like to say a few words on the candidates who are running to this first round and my choice.

I've decided to vote for Jadot. I'm not particularly thrilled with him, and my heart is still with Hidalgo, but their programs and priorities are ultimately pretty similar. They both believe in redistribution, on taking drastic action, and on unequivocally standing up to Russian aggression (more on that later). They are the only two candidates who fulfill all three of these non-negotiable criteria to my satisfaction (Roussel comes close, but I don't trust him entirely on the last point). But ultimately, Jadot is polling at 5% and Hidalgo is polling at 2%. I guess I want to do a mini-tactical vote and promote a candidate who has some chance of representing an alternative to Mélenchon on the left. The 5% threshold isn't just symbolic, either: it's the threshold for having your campaign expenses reimbursed. If Jadot crosses it, EELV will have a better shot at remaining a viable party. The PS has already lost this shot, and frankly, at some point they have to take responsibility for their sh**tty electoral results. It wouldn't have taken much to convince me to vote for Hidalgo, but if she's polling that low she must be doing something wrong. I still have a lot of respect for her, and I hope she goes back to being a great mayor of Paris - but boy what an embarrassing run.

After those two, I guess my third choice would have to be Roussel. There's something about his campaign that's deeply grating (all the emphasis on his quips is so transparently fake), but there's a lot to love about his platform. And, unlike the other NATO-skeptic leftists, he's actually admitted that he wouldn't pursue exiting NATO now because he understands the importance of being united in support of Ukraine. I have respect for that, and that's why I'm willing to take him seriously, unlike any of the other left-wing candidate.

If none of those three make it to the runoff (and obviously they won't), I would then have to vote for Macron over any of the other 8 candidates. This probably comes as a shock (it came as a shock to myself when I really thought it through), but it is, in my opinion, the only morally serious choice of someone who takes France's role in Europe and in the world seriously. I want to delve on that a bit more, because this is a fundamental shift in how I used to view things, and probably stands out from many of my fellow leftists' view on the matter. I had a discussion about it with Parochial Boy recently, but I don't think I've said all that was on my mind then.

All my life, I've put redistribution on top of my priorities. I still believe it is fundamentally the only tool capable of making capitalism a system worth living under and provide the basic level of dignity any human being is entitled in. That hasn't changed. FBM has deeply damaged it, continuing the work Sarkozy left off (and Flamby barely interrupted) of some-f**king-how giving France its Thatcherite revolution 3-4 decades later. It's destroying the fabric of French society, and directly feeding into the rise of fascism in France. I can basically sign off to everything PB has been saying about Macron for five years, and I've said much of the same thing myself.

This is the first time when I don't think this attitude is tenable any longer. I am actually willing to let France's social fabric be torn some more, if it means that the Ukrainian people have a better chance to defend themselves - if it means throughout Eastern Europe, people can have the confidence that we Westerners will have their back when they stand up to Russia. I've always political instincts on foreign policy that clashed with most of the left (on Israel, on humanitarian intervention in general, increasingly on the EU). I've never been shy about them, but I've also generally tried to put them aside to focus on what I thought really mattered - we all want massive wealth redistribution. Frankly, In retrospect, I think that attitude was a mistake even before February 24 (most working-class people aren't French, after all, and their lives are impacted by foreign policy decisions rather than by domestic social policy). But now, it's downright immoral.

What we are facing now is bigger than any social spending cut: it is a direct, frontal attack on all the values the left supposedly cares for: democracy, self-determination, freedom from ethnic and political persecution, you name it. I hope no one doubts I care deeply about the French working class - I hope I've demonstrated that throughout the year. But however bad life will be for the French working class under Macron, they are not going to have their houses bombed. They're not going to see their loved ones torn to pieces. They're not going to see their entire villages massacred. They're not going to see parts of their lands taken over and ruled by a foreign power that wants them compliant, speaking a given language, voting a given way, and that might quietly disappear them if they aren't. Putting redistribution ahead of this feels frankly obscene. And I'm only talking about how Ukraine is affected - but of course, this is not just about Ukraine. Ultimately, the fate of all of Europe is being settled there. People might say that even if Ukraine falls, Putin will never be crazy enough to attack NATO directly, but at this point, any premise that starts with "Putin will never be crazy enough to" has to be taken with extreme suspicion. And even if he doesn't invade militarily, we all know he has other ways of corrupting European democracies from the inside. He's been far more successful at that game than on the military front. And if he's met with anything but dogged resistance, he will encroach further. There is no doubt about it.

Now, Mélenchon was buddy-buddy with Putin and other foreign dictators for a while. He talks about the EU as a nuisance and actively wants to get out of NATO. The consequences of having someone like that in charge of the EU's largest military power would be catastrophic. Diplomatically, it would be almost as bad as Le Pen winning. I don't give a sh*t about his plan to soak the rich and raise the minimum wage, if his diplomatic stance is going to get more Ukrainian children killed. This is the choice I have right here. It's a rotten f**king choice, but it is one whose moral implications are clear. The same goes for Poutou and Arthaud, to a lesser extent. They're not Putin apologists, that much I can give them. But at the end of the day, their foreign policy would also embolden Putin (maybe even more so, since they might go even farther against the EU). Same with the undeniably iconic Lassalle, with the loathsome worm NDA, or with the two fascists who don't even bear naming. And as for Pécresse, I'm sure she wouldn't take us out of NATO or the EU, but she might still be friendlier toward Russia given her party's ties - not to mention she'd pummel the working class even worse than Macron.

Okay, I'm done. I guess it's not usual to spend more time defending my fourth choice than the previous three, but I had to defend this decision, if to no one else, at least to myself.

TL;DR: Jadot > Hidalgo > Roussel > Macron > Everyone else. It sucks but it's true.

[KaiserDave]

A pleasure to read your analysis Antonio. Really it is. I agree with most of what you said, almost all. I have come to slightly different conclusions and have a ranking along these lines.

1. Hidalgo
2. Jadot
3. Poutou
4. Macron
5. Roussel
6. Melenchon
7. Dupont-Aignan
8. Arthaud
9. Pecresse
10. Lassalle
11. Le Pen
12. Zemmour

That said. You make an interesting case for Roussel>Macron, I was merely perturbed over Roussel's support for the PRC. I also think there is perhaps some merit for a first round Melenchon vote to stave off Panzergirl. But of course, you are French, and I am not! I appreciate your words of wisdom, and I share your angst over the French and Europe at large political situation. I hope things get better soon.

[Horus]

Sticking with my Poutou endorsement.

[brucejoel99]

My 1st round prediction:
Emmanuel Macron (LREM): 26.3%
Marine Le Pen (RN): 22.2%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI): 17.7%
Eric Zemmour (R!): 9.3% (slight overperformance, as alluded to by Al)
Valérie Pécresse (LR): 7.3% (slight underperformance, as alluded to by Al)
Yannick Jadot (EELV): 5.3% (may Antonio's vote help EELV remain viable for a long, long time to come)

My wayyy-too-early 2nd round prediction:
Macron (LREM): 55.6% (like in 2017, I presume that Panzergirl panic following the 1st round will lead to voters who would've otherwise abstained from the 2nd round voting for Macron, albeit at not nearly as high a rate as 5 years ago)
Le Pen (RN): 44.4%

[PSOL]

I think while Melenchon will outdo polling, he won’t get past 17-18% as the left he could pull is pretty much locked on to their respective pillars. Those wanting to engage in tactical voting over voting for Potou, Roussel, and especially LO have already done so two weeks ago. Meanwhile, I think LO will do not that badly in polling compared to their previous result.

Macron will win easily, albeit it will be close, and to say otherwise is ludicrous.

[Coldstream]

I’d vote: Hidalgo, Jadot, Roussel/Macron (unsure in what order between these two, both are bad but better than the alternatives). I’d vote Hidalgo because I thinks she’s the best even though is essentially virtue signalling at this point.

Prediction:

Macron 26%
Le Pen 22%
Melenchon 16%
Zemmour 10%
Pecresse 8%
Jadot 5%
Roussel 3%
Hidalgo 2%
Lassalle 2%
Dupont-Aignan 2%
Arthaud 1%
Poutou 0.5%

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I voted earlier today, after a very long line-up which took an hour and a half to get through. Cookies for anyone who can guess who I voted for.

I thought you were Canadian?

Anyway Predictions:

Macron: 24%
Le Penn: 23 %
Melenchon: 19%
Zemmour: 6%
Hidalgo: 5%

[Logical]

Turnout at 12pm is 3% lower than 2017. I think it'll end up just a little bit over 70%.
https://twitter.com/2022Elections/status/1513097213823569925

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513115084591095814?s=20&t=eNyci1I70...

Apparently S-S-D turnout is down 10%, which should be both a symbol of the Left's disunity and the fact that Melenchon isn't a good replacement.

[Zinneke]

My prediction is that the RTBF will announce the results at 19.59 just to get one over the French. At least some of my taxes go to good causes.

[parochial boy]

Big turnouts in the RN strongholds of Vaucluse and Pas-de-Calais, but also in Lot and Dordogne which have been fairly responsive to Mélenchon brand leftism. This is all the Atlas habit of predicting things wrong based on over interpreting turnout patterns in any case. The midday turnout numbers are usually a fairly weak predictor of final turnout - it was 22% in both 1995 and 2002 and the final turnout wound up at 80% in 95 and 72% seven years later.

I'm quite curious to see if Mélenchon comes top in any of the big cities this year. He did in a few in 2017, but on a smaller gap to Macron overall. Lille is probably the best bet; followed by Montpellier. Beyond that, Rennes and Grenoble usually have the biggest left wing votes, but aren't particularly primed towards the Mélenchoniste left - so expect a big Jadot over vote in both (even if Rennes had an unusually big Hamon over vote in 2017 down to the Britanny connection.

[njwes]

Very par for the course to see so many "leftists" bowing down at the altar of nightmarish neoliberal orthodoxy (as they almost always do, in all Western countries) to vote for Macron

[Hash]

I voted earlier today, after a very long line-up which took an hour and a half to get through. Cookies for anyone who can guess who I voted for.

I thought you were Canadian?

I have dual citizenship.