Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

Lol @ Wayne Allyn Root being the Libertarian Nominee.

Unfortunately, I needed someone and Wikipedia didn't give me much at quick glance. I'm open to superior suggestions.

[Maxwell]

Lol @ Wayne Allyn Root being the Libertarian Nominee.

Unfortunately, I needed someone and Wikipedia didn't give me much at quick glance. I'm open to superior suggestions.

Nah he's likely. I'm just laughing at him as a person.

[KingSweden]

Lol @ Wayne Allyn Root being the Libertarian Nominee.

Unfortunately, I needed someone and Wikipedia didn't give me much at quick glance. I'm open to superior suggestions.

Nah he's likely. I'm just laughing at him as a person.

He's an odd duck, that's for sure.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Vermont

Presidential: Clinton easily carries Vermont 66-29.

VT-Governor: Phil Scott cruises to reelection after a competent, low-key first term against a no-name Democratic opponent.

VT-AL: Peter Welch retires after seven terms in Congress to pursue appointment to the Presidency of the University of Vermont. Attorney General Tim Ashe announces his intention to run as an independent in the mold of Bernie Sanders and largely clears the field, with no serious Democrat running and a former Douglas chief of staff running for the GOP. Ashe wins with nearly 60% of the vote. I+1, though he will caucus with Democrats.

VT Legislature: Democrats retake a seat captured by Progressives in the previous election and Republicans gain/lose no net seats.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 11
Pence/Rubio: 0

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Massachusetts

Presidential: MA reverts somewhat back to its mean after its monster margin for Clinton in '16, giving her 63% of the vote to Pence's 35%.

MA-Sen: Ed Markey is reelected with nearly 70% of the vote over Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito, who runs an anemic campaign and does not attract the widespread support of a Charlie Baker, who has continued to maintain his refusal to get involved with national politics, even eschewing a speaking opportunity at the RNC.

MA Congress: The entire delegation is returned without issue.

MA Legislature: Democrats take one seat back in the Senate, otherwise the House stays the same.

Electoral Vote Count

Clinton/Heinrich: 22
Pence/Rubio: 0

Connecticut

Presidential: Pence manages to see a more respectable performance in CT, seeing Romney's 40% of the vote while not quite reaching his raw vote total as Clinton carries the state with 58%.

CT-1: John Larson announces his retirement from Congress after eleven terms. His son, State Sen. Tim Larson, is elected to replace him in the primary, tantamount to election in this safe D district.

CT-3: Rosa DeLauro retires from Congress after fifteen terms. She is replaced by Edward M Kennedy, Jr., a prominent name in New England politics and the son of former Senator Ted Kennedy.

CT Legislature: Democrats retake one seat in the House, Senate stays static.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 29
Pence/Rubio: 0

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Rhode Island

Presidential: Clinton's numbers fall back slightly from their 2016 heights, posting 62% to Pence's 35%.

RI-Sen: Jack Reed, long thought of as a lifer in the Senate, stuns the political world when he announces his intention to retire after four terms in November 2019, shortly after his 70th birthday. The retirement sets off a scramble of speculation about his replacement - top choices for national Dems, Gina Raimondo and James Langevin, are both boxed out by outside groups, with organized labor and other left-wing groups flexing their muscles to prevent Raimondo from looking at the race, and NARAL and EMILY's List opposing a Langevin candidacy.

With the two top-tier candidates out, Clay Pell jumps in again to rematch the 2014 Gubernatorial primary against Angel Taveras, and Treasurer Seth Magaziner enters the race, too. David Cicilline, likely due to his serious baggage, decides not to run, with the thinking going that he will seek the Governorship in 2022. Magaziner beats out Pell, who once again comes across as an trophy husband with little more than a famous last name, as well as Taveras, who is starting to come across as a perennial candidate, and goes on to win the general election with more than 60% of the vote.

RI Legislature: Senate stays the same, while Democrats retake one House seat lost in 2018.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 33
Pence/Rubio: 0

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

New York

Presidential: Clinton's numbers come down from their 2016 blowout levels, carrying her adopted "home" state 64-34, a three-and-a-half percent decline from her 2016 banner year.

NY-1: Lee Zeldin continues to dominate in his district, flying back every weekend to meet constituents and cutting a moderate tone in Congress, emphasizing his work on VA reform with Reps. Seth Moulton and Dakota Meyer (R-KY). Zeldin easily wins over Montauk dentist Torry Christian (fic).

NY-2: Steve Bellone, Suffolk County Executive, decides to finally challenge for Congress in a slightly D-trending district. He faces Phil Boyle, who has been even more moderate on economic matters than Peter King and not the kind of neoconservative, polarizing figure King was either. In an upset, Bellone knocks out Boyle, 51-49, in this swingy district. D+1.

NY-3: The CleaNY scandal touches on Steve Israel, implicating his knowledge, though not complicity, in some of the issues plaguing the New York political establishment. Israel faces his tightest challenge in years, with State Senator Jack Martins running against him as a reformer. Israel pounds Martins for his votes against marriage equality, the MTA and his longstanding perch in Long Island politics, with Martins retorting that Israel is a hypocrite as a 20-year veteran of Congress and with a close relationship to leadership. Israel manages to skate by even as Clinton dominates in his district, only winning 50-46 with third-party candidates atrophying votes Martins could have used.

NY-7: Now-controversial Velazquez, harangued by months of rumors of campaign improprieties, pay-to-play, her involvement in the CleaNY probe and her votes in favor of the financial industry in the past queue her up for a major primary challenge when she bucks expectations and combatantly announces her intention to seek another term. State Senator Daniel Squadron - a former Schumer aide - is the clear choice to challenge her, and the race boils down to an old Brooklyn/new Brooklyn divide, with Squadron enjoying the support of gentrified neighborhoods while Velazquez leans on Hispanic and black voters in the district. Squadron hypocritically attacks Velazquez for her Wall Street ties while raking in thousands in donations from big banks, and manages to edge her in the contentious primary, tantamount to election in the heavily-Democratic district and giving Schumer a close ally in the House ranks.

NY-11: Mike Cusick survives again, staving off James Oddo to stay in office 54-45 percent. His moderate record and strong ties to Staten Island continue to protect him in a seat that is trending D, but very slowly. D hold.

NY-12: Carolyn Maloney retires after 28 years in Congress. Though there is initially speculation that Chelsea Clinton or husband Marc Mezvinsky might run, both of them pass on the opportunity. The primary shapes up as a Manhattan vs. Queens affair, with State Rep. Dan Quart running against City Councilman Costa Constantinides. Constantinides wins by a surprisingly comfortable margin against the favored Quart, tantamount to election in this district.

NY-13: Adriano Espaillat retires due to the CleaNY probes and is replaced by Ydanis Rodriguez, who wins a wide-open primary as the favorite.

NY-15: After thirty years in Congress, an ill and weak José Serrano retires, leaving his Bronx seat open. Bronx President Ruben Diaz, Jr. is the consensus choice to replace him, winning with little primary opposition.

NY-17: Nita Lowey retires at 83 after thirty-two years in Congress. The Democratic primary pits State Rep. Ken Zembowski, Jr. against former Senate IDC member and fellow Rockland County resident David Carlucci. Carlucci's participation in the IDC earns him few friends, even in this moderate district and with his promises that he will be a "loyal Democrat in the United States Senate." Zembowski easily wins and dispatches Rob Astorino 56-42.

NY-23: Svante Myrick survives yet again against Philip Palmesano, this time winning 53-47 in another competitive race.

NY Legislature: Democrats pick up a seat in the Senate to expand their majority to 33-30. Dems gain two seats in the Assembly to go to a 106-44.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 62
Pence/Rubio: 0

[KingSweden]

Some notes on the New York results: Obviously, CleaNY had a huge effect here, and both Schumer and Bharara were instrumental in asking several important NYC Dems to retire. The effect shifts the age of the New York delegation from an average in their late 60s to mid-50s, and would have gone even younger had Israel been defeated and Nadler and Engel retired. In all, over a hundred combined years of seniority and experience left the New York delegation this election as part of a conscious effort by the DCCC and New York Democratic Party to make their party younger and more inviting after CleaNY and with Schumer and Hillary Clinton the two biggest names in the party.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

New Jersey

Presidential: Clinton wins New Jersey with 59% of the vote instead of 61%, and barely campaigns here while Pence and Rubio actually make a fairly solid investment in hopes of making Clinton spend money here without actually believing they can win. In their favor - poor poll numbers for Governor Fulop and the Democratic-led Assembly. The Clinton campaign calls their bluff and mostly ignores the state.

NJ-Sen: Despite mediocre approval ratings, Cory Booker emphasizes his work on criminal justice reforms and is easily reelected over State Rep. Jack Ciatarelli, 60-40.

NJ-12: The only big Congressional race in New Jersey, with Bonnie Watson Coleman retiring after three terms in office. She is replaced by State Senator Nicholas Scutari. D hold.

All other incumbents are easily reelected.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 74
Pence/Rubio: 0

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The numbers out of NH don't bode well for Pence.

[KingSweden]

The numbers out of NH don't bode well for Pence.

That quote from IceSpear in your signature is hilarious, Sanchez. That gave me the good chuckle I needed.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Delaware

Presidential: One of the rare Northeastern states where Clinton improves on her 2016 numbers, Delaware gives Clinton both a higher raw vote total and percentage, clocking in at 62% of the vote for her and she nearly wins rapidly growing Sussex County, though Pence still narrowly carries it in the end. The death of Joe Biden earlier in the year is cited as a factor in the strong support for the Democrat.

DE-Gov: This race is thrown into a flux by the death of Biden earlier in the year, as Ken Simpler dials back his campaign after Beau Biden's already-solid approval ratings skyrocket after his widely-lauded eulogy for his father. Simpler effectively abandons the campaign in late September and Biden cruises to a 70% victory.

DE-Sen: Chris Coons is easily reelected.

DE-At Large: Brian Pettyjohn, rated Roll Call's Most Vulnerable Incumbent the whole race, goes down with a fight, returning to Delaware almost every other day even when Congress is in session for community events and holds nearly a hundred town hall meetings just in 2020. Still, the strong blue tide in Delaware powers former Governor Jack Markell over the moderate and well-liked Pettyjohn, 61-39. D+1.

DE Legislature: The Senate holds pat, while Democrats gain three more seats in the House.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 77
Pence/Rubio: 0

Maryland

Presidential: Clinton's numbers here only decline somewhat - she gains in raw votes, but higher turnout than in 2016 also tightens her percentage and so she wins by 61%, matching Obama's 2012 margin of victory.

MD-6: David Brinkley faces a challenge from State Senator Brian Feldman. Though Feldman is slightly favored initially in the D-leaning district, Brinkley wages a frantic campaign to narrowly hold on to his seat, 52-48. R hold.

MD Congress: All other incumbents reelected.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 87
Pence/Rubio: 0

[Duke of York]

United States elections, 2020

Delaware

Presidential: One of the rare Northeastern states where Clinton improves on her 2016 numbers, Delaware gives Clinton both a higher raw vote total and percentage, clocking in at 62% of the vote for her and she nearly wins rapidly growing Sussex County, though Pence still narrowly carries it in the end. The death of Joe Biden earlier in the year is cited as a factor in the strong support for the Democrat.

DE-Gov: This race is thrown into a flux by the death of Biden earlier in the year, as Ken Simpler dials back his campaign after Beau Biden's already-solid approval ratings skyrocket after his widely-lauded eulogy for his father. Simpler effectively abandons the campaign in late September and Biden cruises to a 70% victory.

DE-At Large: Brian Pettyjohn, rated Roll Call's Most Vulnerable Incumbent the whole race, goes down with a fight, returning to Delaware almost every other day even when Congress is in session for community events and holds nearly a hundred town hall meetings just in 2020. Still, the strong blue tide in Delaware powers former Governor Jack Markell over the moderate and well-liked Pettyjohn, 61-39. D+1.

DE Legislature: The Senate holds pat, while Democrats gain three more seats in the House.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 77
Pence/Rubio: 0

Maryland

Presidential: Clinton's numbers here only decline somewhat - she gains in raw votes, but higher turnout than in 2016 also tightens her percentage and so she wins by 61%, matching Obama's 2012 margin of victory.

MD-6: David Brinkley faces a challenge from State Senator Brian Feldman. Though Feldman is slightly favored initially in the D-leaning district, Brinkley wages a frantic campaign to narrowly hold on to his seat, 52-48. R hold.

MD Congress: All other incumbents reelected.

MD Legislature: Democrats lose a seat in the Senate and gain a seat in the House, crossing the 100-seat threshold to hold a commanding majority.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 87
Pence/Rubio: 0

Great timeline and can;t wait for the rest of the 2020 election. Although as far as i know Maryland only holds its state legislature elections in midterms years. unless the legislature passed a amendment to change to two year terms. I wish this timeline would happen for real

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Delaware

Presidential: One of the rare Northeastern states where Clinton improves on her 2016 numbers, Delaware gives Clinton both a higher raw vote total and percentage, clocking in at 62% of the vote for her and she nearly wins rapidly growing Sussex County, though Pence still narrowly carries it in the end. The death of Joe Biden earlier in the year is cited as a factor in the strong support for the Democrat.

DE-Gov: This race is thrown into a flux by the death of Biden earlier in the year, as Ken Simpler dials back his campaign after Beau Biden's already-solid approval ratings skyrocket after his widely-lauded eulogy for his father. Simpler effectively abandons the campaign in late September and Biden cruises to a 70% victory.

DE-At Large: Brian Pettyjohn, rated Roll Call's Most Vulnerable Incumbent the whole race, goes down with a fight, returning to Delaware almost every other day even when Congress is in session for community events and holds nearly a hundred town hall meetings just in 2020. Still, the strong blue tide in Delaware powers former Governor Jack Markell over the moderate and well-liked Pettyjohn, 61-39. D+1.

DE Legislature: The Senate holds pat, while Democrats gain three more seats in the House.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 77
Pence/Rubio: 0

Maryland

Presidential: Clinton's numbers here only decline somewhat - she gains in raw votes, but higher turnout than in 2016 also tightens her percentage and so she wins by 61%, matching Obama's 2012 margin of victory.

MD-6: David Brinkley faces a challenge from State Senator Brian Feldman. Though Feldman is slightly favored initially in the D-leaning district, Brinkley wages a frantic campaign to narrowly hold on to his seat, 52-48. R hold.

MD Congress: All other incumbents reelected.

MD Legislature: Democrats lose a seat in the Senate and gain a seat in the House, crossing the 100-seat threshold to hold a commanding majority.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 87
Pence/Rubio: 0

Great timeline and can;t wait for the rest of the 2020 election. Although as far as i know Maryland only holds its state legislature elections in midterms years. unless the legislature passed a amendment to change to two year terms. I wish this timeline would happen for real

Ah, of course. Duly modified.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Pennsylvania

Presidential: Clinton expands on her 2016 MOV even though both her raw vote total and that of Pence decline - she wins 54-45 on lower turnout. Pennsylvania continues its streak of voting D now to eight straight elections.

PA-6: Democrats decide to challenge Ryan Costello again, running Judy Schwank in a rematch attempt for her to gain back her old seat. Costello, sensing the danger, tacks to the center as he has done for most of his term and easily defeats Schwank to keep his seat, 55-45. R hold.

PA-7: Dominic Pileggi tries to take out Rep. Matt Bradford, who held on narrowly in 2018 and this time wins by a broader margin as Clinton carries the district by a healthy margin. D hold.

PA-8: Patrick Murphy faces a 2018 rematch with State Rep. Scott Petri. Though Petri keeps it close, Clinton's large margins in SEPA help carry the Murphy campaign over the line. The DCCC has to parachute in here to keep Murphy alive, though, since his campaign is rudderless and unenthusiastic despite the seat's competitive nature and he survives by only 2,000 votes, with Petri leading for much of the night. Murphy is almost immediately the GOP's top target in 2022. D hold.

All other incumbents are easily reelected.

PA Legislature: The Senate stays at 27-23 despite a massive investment by Democratic outside groups in the "2020 Project". The 2020 Project pays dividends in the House, however, where Democrats pick up eight seats, almost as many as in 2016, to cut the GOP advantage to a very narrow 104-99, an even closer margin than after 2016. However, many of these new Democratic incumbents are in seats that will be very friendly to Republicans in two years.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 107
Pence/Rubio: 0

[badgate]

Joe Biden died?! I'm quitting this tl

[KingSweden]

Joe Biden died?! I'm quitting this tl

No! Don't leave me like this!

[Ebsy]

I love reading this timeline. Keep it up.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

West Virginia

Presidential: Clinton's numbers here actually improve after a first-term investment in clean coal technology and an effort to court the kind of voters who have abandoned the party in recent decades. She only loses it 58-40, and Pence fails to hit Cruz-style numbers in the state.

WV Gov: Patrick Morrissey is reelected over Jeff Kessler, 58-40.

WV Senate: Shelley Moore Capito, having cut a moderate and pragmatic profile as Senator, cruises to an easy reelection over a no-name state rep, with Democrats having little desire to challenge her.

WV Congress: All three incumbents reelected.

WV Legislature: The Senate holds firm, while Democrats gain three seats in the House to cut the GOP advantage to 65-35.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 107
Pence/Rubio: 5

Kentucky

Presidential: The numbers for Clinton here decline somewhat - she gains more in raw votes, but higher turnout overall boosts Pence's vote share. Pence wins 56-42 in the Bluegrass State.

KY Senate: Mitch McConnell retires after six terms in office, despised by Democrats and not particularly well-liked by Republicans either, but leaves as one of the most influential Kentuckians since Henry Clay. His retirement sets off a firestorm, with close to a dozen Republicans at one point in the primary. Democrats quickly coalesce once again around Alison Lundergan-Grimes. Andy Barr emerges as the choice of the establishment and the grassroots have a diffuse, varied field since Massie is in the Governor's mansion and most other Congressmen in Kentucky pass on the opportunity. Barr wins the primary by a narrow margin.

The race is targeted by the DSCC as a potential pickup opportunity and Grimes runs a much sharper campaign than she did in 2020, though many Kentucky insiders are still privately skeptical about her chances. Barr, meanwhile, proves surprisingly vulnerable, trying to be all things to all people and running his campaign as if he has already won. Despite what appears to be a late surge by Grimes, Barr manages to raise enough questions about ethics issues for her and drums up a pro-coal message in eastern Kentucky to win 51-46, with a third-party candidate taking some votes too. Lack of enthusiasm for Barr by Paul/Massie voters is seen as causing his close call.

KY-1: National Republicans decide to challenge Dakota Meyer, son-in-law of Sarah Palin, in the primary after he both bucks the party leadership on issues where he throws his support in with the right and where he swings over to the Democrats. Stan Humphries runs against Meyer in a tin-eared and blatantly ambitious campaign, and Meyer attacks him as "running for Congress because he just wants to be in Congress." Meyer emphasizes his work with Seth Moulton and Lee Zeldin on veteran's care reform, reforms to the DoD, and enjoys considerable support from Palin, despite her faded-star reputation and a constellation of outside groups even though he does not score particularly well with the CoG and similar organizations. Meyer wins his primary by a surprisingly wide margin and cruises to reelection.

KY-6: Democrats initially debate making a play for this seat, while Republicans coalesce around Ryan Quarles as their nominee. A Lexington-area lawyer runs for Team D in a surprisingly weak attempt to contest this seat, and Quarles crushes him en route to a 60-40 win.

KY Legislature: Democrats hold the State House again, gaining one seat, and stand pat in the Senate.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 107
Pence/Rubio: 13

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

Tennessee

Presidential: Clinton improves her numbers in Tennessee as well despite not campaigning there other than appearances in Nashville and Memphis on behalf of Cooper and Cohen (more on that below). Pence carries the state 55-44, though turnout in markedly down in the Volunteer state from 2016.

TN Senate: Lamar Alexander, at 80 years old, calls it a career. The race to replace him gets wild, including several hard-right state legislators from across the state, though the consensus choice eventually becomes US Rep. Stephen Fincher, who despite facing concerns regarding his business activities and ethics is more palatable to most Republican donors and activists than the constellation of "borderline-unelectable" conservatives. Fincher still struggles to pull away in the primary and so Jim Cooper decides to give up his House seat to pursue the Senate seat. Fincher does manage to eventually dispatch of his closest competitor, State Rep. Matt Hill, but enters the general election bloodied. Cooper pulls close early in the fall, but Fincher campaigns against him as a "rubber-stamp for Washington liberals" and manages to win by more than polling showed, defeating Jim Cooper 53-42, with a libertarian in the race pulling votes from both men. R hold.

TN-1: Phil Roe retires after six terms, and State Rep. Timothy Hill decides to bandwagon off of his brother's support in the region in the primary to earn the Republican nomination with little contest, despite his penchant for off-color remarks and spotty ethical history. He easily wins in the fall election.

TN-5: Cooper's retirement after eighteen years in Congress leads to the election of State Sen. Jeff Yarbro, who promises to continue in Cooper's tradition of moderation, though he is certain to be slightly to the left of his predecessor and mentor.

TN-8: Out of a wide-open primary to replace Stephen Fincher emerges State Senator Brian Kelsey, who easily wins in the very conservative district.

TN Legislature: Republicans keep their 28-5 Senate margin, but lose two seats in the Tennessee house to drop to 71-28.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 107
Pence/Rubio: 24

[KingSweden]

Courtesy of badgate, who made these, here are some update maps:

Presidential

107-24

Senate

Medium color is results of an open seat, dark color is a re-elected incumbent.

Thanks badgate! There'll be more updates later.

[badgate]

Woo! No problem. I'll try to post a new map for every ten states or so if that's okay.

[KingSweden]

Woo! No problem. I'll try to post a new map for every ten states or so if that's okay.

That sounds great. One thing I noticed, too, is that New Hampshire is marked as an incumbent rather than open seat win - Joe Foster replaces Shaheen, who retires.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2020

District of Columbia

Presidential: I think we all know how this goes. Clinton with over 90% of the vote.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 110
Pence/Rubio: 24

[KingSweden]

Woo! No problem. I'll try to post a new map for every ten states or so if that's okay.

That sounds great. One thing I noticed, too, is that New Hampshire is marked as an incumbent rather than open seat win - Joe Foster replaces Shaheen, who retires.

And I forgot to write it, but Chris Coons is easily reelected.