State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Landslide Lyndon]

No special elections today?

Yes but their are a number of special elections next week.

A boatload of them in New York.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Am I reading correctly? On Twitter I'm hearing the AD142 R candidate is going to caucus with the Dems.

Yes, he is a labor Democrat who runs on the Republican line.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Republicans are winning Assembly District 5 in a Landslide.

Has your kiddie diddler conceded yet?

[Landslide Lyndon]

True, I would’ve liked to expand Clinton’s margin here, but it shows that indepdents are strongly on our side for November. Plus, look at the Election Day voting: 13-point advantage for Dems. Great news for us in states like PA that don’t have early in-person voting.

These Cuban districts are still strongly Republican downballot. These wins by Democrats are nothing to sneeze at.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Next week:

Arkansas
See also: Arkansas state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 16   
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 29   
[show]☐ Arkansas House of Representatives District 83

From what I have seen these are all 65%+ Republican seats.
So expect Limo and krazey having a field day next week when the Dem candidates lose by 20 points or so.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Won't change anything but yeah, any party that has a modicum of respect for itself should kick out all people who take advantage of it and then sleep with the enemy.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Next week:

Arkansas
See also: Arkansas state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 16   
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 29   
[show]☐ Arkansas House of Representatives District 83

From what I have seen these are all 65%+ Republican seats.
So expect Limo and krazey having a field day next week when the Dem candidates lose by 20 points or so.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It’s not good riddance Felder will have the same position he always has had come next year lol just Dems guaranteed their majority will be one seat smaller with this stunt

It won't make it smaller since Felder caucuses with the GOP anyway.

No, when Dems pick up the senate in November he would’ve switched. It does make it smaller.

And no, he isn’t going to lose lol. I don’t think you know what a hot take is OneJ

So the Democrats lost the support of a craven opportunist with no principles other that personal and political profit. Devastating loss indeed.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Walker did not comment on the SD-1 race directly, but he did post this article in a complaint about the "hatred of the left": https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/06/wisconsin-democrat-candidates-use-trump-tactics/

He also posted this:  @BarackObama and his big government allies finally announced what we’ve always known, they’re targeting our race in Wisconsin. We need your help to stand up and combat their out-of-state money and attacks. Support our bold reforms: https://t.co/I8C41wuTtE

Snowflake Scott is in for a rude awakening this November.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I was expected #thepersistence to tweet how they "got in the runoff with 30% of the vote" and how this showed how strong Reps are, but he didnt even mention it.

James Woods
‏Verified account @RealJamesWoods

#Republicans must vote in droves to have a fighting chance. Remember: you’re not only facing #Democrats. You’re fighting dead voters, illegal alien voters, and repeat voters. That is, if you can even get to the polls past Black Panthers intimidating you.

I think we just found who pandaguinea is.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A 17-point swing is nothing to be ashamed of. Good to see that Democrats remain energized.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Arizona doesn't have special elections for the state legislature, IIRC.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Republican State Senator Don White of Pennsylvania has announced his resignation today, triggering a special election. He won in 2016 with 68% of the vote.

Do we have presidential numbers?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Next special election is on the 19th in VA HD 86. It's a safely democratic district that Clinton carried by 35 points - but Republicans are contesting the race, and the margin will tell us a lot about the impact of Northamgate and whether the disappointment we've seen in Minnesota and Georgia is being reflected elsewhere in the country.

Isn't this the election where the Dem candidate posted antisemitic stuff on facebook?
If yes then maybe he'll underperform, so you'll have the chance to declare again the Democrats demise.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Frankly I expected this guy to do worse after his vile facebook posts came out.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Remember when LimoLiberal insisted that the Texas special election like a month before 2018 meant Hurd was safe, Cruz would win by double digits, and Republicans would hold the House? I also remember when Oklahoma special elections meant Gov. Edmondson was inevitable.

Now, this kind of inflammatory rhetoric is why people want you banned from Atlas.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Okay, after reading more about Lamont, I'm not as surprised about losing in Connecticut anymore. 

Raising taxes on groceries?

Having all vehicles pay tolls?

Eliminating the estate tax?

This governor is awful, no wonder people are at pissed at CT Dems.   They deserved this loss. 

Lol, I remember when he was the "progressive" candidate against Lieberman.

Ha was the anti-war candidate. Other than that I don't remember any other issues where the two of them fundamentally disagreed.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wow Dem candidate ran even ahead of Obama. What a hack can't beleive it. It's a safe D seat at the state leg level.

Thanks - glad you seemed to enjoy my maps! Sounds like your planning on making better ones yourself?

No, man, I'm not in the mapmaking business. My point was pretty obvious one. If you do public work, post it online, I hate to break it down to you but you could be criticized. It's a shock, I know. However I really didn't even criticize your maps or talked about how hard you do your job. I only pointed out that you were comparing apples to oranges, special election results vs presidential election in the same seat. Better comparison for sure is with the state leg election from the same year in which Trump won. Random observer on twitter and even here notes big swing to Dems but it would be a slightly different story if we compare 2016 state leg with this special. Your passive agressive tone that followed a normal comment is really something. Reminds me of 2016 election twitter in early vote reporting.. Remember, bias isn't what you report rather what you don't.

Dude, you are a run-of-the-mill right-wing troll and you are criticizing a national treasure like Miles.
Take your toys and go home before this becomes too embarrassing.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Miles, glad you "reappeared" here. Big thanks for your maps! It became my habit to look regularily at Decision Desk Twitter. One question: you have excellent knowledge of Southern politics. We discussed Mississippi in details recently. But what about Louisiana legislative elections? Term limits will cause very big turnover there, as lot of people, elected in 2007 (first time, when term limits were applied) are term-limited himself. Especially problematic, IMHO, is situation with few remaining white Democrats. If i am not mistaken - only 3 of them (Brown, Carter and White) may run for reelection, and chances of electing new ones in their seats, are,  usually, not good (many retiring white legislators come from 65-85% Trump districts). Your expertise would be very useful here...

It's been a while my friend! I've still been lurking around and uploading old races to the database here, but I'll likely post a bit more as Louisiana gets closer. Lots of interesting stuff happening in the legislature.

Miles has been contracted to make maps for Cook Political and Sabato before. Until anyone of us reaches that level, we do not have the right to decide what he makes and what he doesn't - unless he asks for input.

Thanks! It was great to work with them. Funny thing is they asked me for a lot of Presidential maps to help handicap downballot races. But now, I'm being told Presidential numbers are irrelevant

You really don't have any idea of the amount and quality of the work Miles has consistently created and published, do you?

I'm surprised Miles even acknowledged the existence of this insignificant right-wing troll.
He must have had a slow day at the office.

Yeah, sometimes you just have to go for it on these slow days! The vast majority of you guys are awesome and I'm happy to put out the content, but always inevitably a few who just want to complain.

There was an special legislative election in Alabama last year. My map compared it to the 2017 Senate result. Jones' performance was/is obviously about the ceiling for Democrats there, so of course they underperformed him. Had a guy saying I should have compared to 2016 President instead. Can't win sometimes!

In any case, looking forward to mapping more of these special elections this year!

Keep going Miles. You and Lunar are making this forum proud.