2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Fascinating. What about CA-51?

The vomit-inducing monstrosity they came up with going from Chula Vista to Needles?

Biden+36 -> Biden+21. That's the other thing flipping Issa.

Ah, just as I suspected. East County is just not large enough to really push it into the R column, far from enough.  And at least a very large minority, perhaps a majority, of the people in it are probably still in urban San Diego County.

Yeah. Chula Vista/Otay Mesa/etc is getting close to half the district.

What is the partisan lean for CA-10 and where would Garamendi run and what would the partisan lean of his seat be?

CA-10 becomes Trump+1 per Wasserman and I honestly think Garamendi is due to retire, being 76 and all.

[Greedo punched first]

Fun fact: On that map, my backyard fence is the line separating CA-47 and CA-48.

[S019]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Fascinating. What about CA-51?

The vomit-inducing monstrosity they came up with going from Chula Vista to Needles?

Biden+36 -> Biden+21. That's the other thing flipping Issa.

Ah, just as I suspected. East County is just not large enough to really push it into the R column, far from enough.  And at least a very large minority, perhaps a majority, of the people in it are probably still in urban San Diego County.

Yeah. Chula Vista/Otay Mesa/etc is getting close to half the district.

What is the partisan lean for CA-10 and where would Garamendi run and what would the partisan lean of his seat be?

CA-10 becomes Trump+1 per Wasserman and I honestly think Garamendi is due to retire, being 76 and all.

I read upthread that 1 was Lean R, but what exactly is the Trump margin and could a Garamendi v LaMalfa election be in the cards, or would he not want to fight such an election?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fun fact: On that map, my backyard fence is the line separating CA-47 and CA-48.

Poetic.

[BoiseBoy]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Fascinating. What about CA-51?

The vomit-inducing monstrosity they came up with going from Chula Vista to Needles?

Biden+36 -> Biden+21. That's the other thing flipping Issa.

Ah, just as I suspected. East County is just not large enough to really push it into the R column, far from enough.  And at least a very large minority, perhaps a majority, of the people in it are probably still in urban San Diego County.

Yeah. Chula Vista/Otay Mesa/etc is getting close to half the district.

What is the partisan lean for CA-10 and where would Garamendi run and what would the partisan lean of his seat be?

CA-10 becomes Trump+1 per Wasserman and I honestly think Garamendi is due to retire, being 76 and all.

I read upthread that 1 was Lean R, but what exactly is the Trump margin and could a Garamendi v LaMalfa election be in the cards, or would he not want to fight such an election?

CA-01 here is about Trump +5.9. I would guess Garamendi retires.

[Greedo punched first]

How did CA-48 become more GOP while losing south OC and becoming more working class?

[S019]

How did CA-48 become more GOP while losing south OC and becoming more working class?

It picked up Asian cities that swung heavily to Trump such as Westminster.

[Greedo punched first]

How did CA-48 become more GOP while losing south OC and becoming more working class?

It picked up Asian cities that swung heavily to Trump such as Westminster.

That makes sense. Garden Grove and Westminster took a hard right turn. Are wealthy whites becoming more Democratic than blue collar whites and Vietnamese-Americans in OC? Is this a realignment of its white voters?

[Gass3268]

How did CA-48 become more GOP while losing south OC and becoming more working class?

It picked up Asian cities that swung heavily to Trump such as Westminster.

That makes sense. Garden Grove and Westminster took a hard right turn. Are wealthy whites becoming more Democratic than blue collar whites and Vietnamese-Americans in OC? Is this a realignment of its white voters?

But then the Vietnamese-Americans jumped back to Newsom in the recall.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

My district (CA-24) gets bluer in this proposed map by taking the more Republican/purple areas of San Luis Obispo County (Paso Robles, Templeton, Atascadero) into Panetta's seat. I don't like how SLO County is being split.

[Greedo punched first]

How did CA-48 become more GOP while losing south OC and becoming more working class?

It picked up Asian cities that swung heavily to Trump such as Westminster.

That makes sense. Garden Grove and Westminster took a hard right turn. Are wealthy whites becoming more Democratic than blue collar whites and Vietnamese-Americans in OC? Is this a realignment of its white voters?

But then the Vietnamese-Americans jumped back to Newsom in the recall.

Are you assuming GOP Assemblywoman Janet Nguyen is DOA in 2022? They seem to be swing voters.

[H. Ross Peron]

How did CA-48 become more GOP while losing south OC and becoming more working class?

It picked up Asian cities that swung heavily to Trump such as Westminster.

Also lost Laguna Beach which is a liberal enclave in coastal Orange County going back decades due to a large artistic and gay community.

[Greedo punched first]

How did CA-48 become more GOP while losing south OC and becoming more working class?

It picked up Asian cities that swung heavily to Trump such as Westminster.

Also lost Laguna Beach which is a liberal enclave in coastal Orange County going back decades due to a large artistic and gay community.

Harley Rouda is from Laguna Beach. He filed to run in CA-48. What will he do now?

[Oryxslayer]

Here's a list of all the competitive seats.

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1453105713132150785?s=20

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1453105715879432192?s=20

And there is CA-01 which is now a narrow Trump seat. Only seats I would really be disappointed about looking at it from a purely D perspective would be the successors to CA-07 (incorrectly labeled CA-04 here unless we treat CA-03 as the cut seat) and CA-10. Porter is the clear winner, though that was natural given Irvine's transformation.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Do the population deviations seem high on this draft map? Some districts are plus or minus almost 5%.

[BoiseBoy]

Do the population deviations seem high on this draft map? Some districts are plus or minus almost 5%.

Yes, and the districts will be altered as feedback is received.

[Dan the Roman]

2 points left and basically the same seat leave Garcia in an OK position; it was possible for him to be given a Biden+20 seat or so. Given his 2020 performance he may do OK in Biden+12.

By contrast Issa became an underperformer by the mid-2010s and even though I generally think the GOP will be OK in Biden+6 seats I wonder if Issa specifically might not be doomed.

I think Garcia is probably doomed the cycle after the first GOP majority. It will be almost impossible for a GOP incumbent to win a Biden+12 seat if they are voting for GOP legislative initiatives. And if they aren't, well the CA GOP despite top 2 has never really adapted to moderates in either party. Which means you get constant turnout battles.

I just am not sure Biden+10 or 12 or even 8 will make a difference then. Ie. it would have in 2020, but next time 2018 rolls around he will probably end up losing by 6+ anyway.

[Spectator]

2 points left and basically the same seat leave Garcia in an OK position; it was possible for him to be given a Biden+20 seat or so. Given his 2020 performance he may do OK in Biden+12.

By contrast Issa became an underperformer by the mid-2010s and even though I generally think the GOP will be OK in Biden+6 seats I wonder if Issa specifically might not be doomed.

I think Garcia is probably doomed the cycle after the first GOP majority. It will be almost impossible for a GOP incumbent to win a Biden+12 seat if they are voting for GOP legislative initiatives. And if they aren't, well the CA GOP despite top 2 has never really adapted to moderates in either party. Which means you get constant turnout battles.

I just am not sure Biden+10 or 12 or even 8 will make a difference then. Ie. it would have in 2020, but next time 2018 rolls around he will probably end up losing by 6+ anyway.

Garcia is probably in a tossup at best for 2022and would be toast in 2024 in an LA County-only seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Aren't  Latinos in the San Fernando Valley much more inelastically D downballot than in, say, the Central Valley?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Roughly what's the net change in number of trump and biden seats ?

[Spectator]

Roughly what's the net change in number of trump and biden seats ?

Basically a wash in its current crude form. Hardee’s and Steel’s seats become Trump 2020 seats (right now, could change) while Issa’s and Nunes’ become narrow Biden seats. There are a lot of marginal seats that could fall in a wave for either party, though, including LaMalfa’s, Valadao’s, Kim’s, and Bera’s.

[Oryxslayer]

Roughly what's the net change in number of trump and biden seats ?

Trump barely wins the successor CA-10 and CA-48 seats under these lines, though Biden wins the successor CA-50 and CA-22 seats, so its 45-7 cause dems down one through reapportioned. That said, there are only four seats I would say are Safe R on this map, whereas there are presently six or seven depending on your measure. GOP trades two safe seats for two swing ones of various loyalties and the CA-01 successor is marginal. The two marginals might not remain so: CA-48 is GOP by a tiny bit so moving a few precincts may change the topline, CA10 could drop the white precincts in the east of San Joaquin given Latino interests. I think the CA-08 successor got less competitive without Rancho Cucamonga though.

Of course there are new Dem marginal seats on the other side of the coin.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't like how SLO County is being split.

If SLO is to be split at all (and not doing so has big implications for Monterey/Santa Cruz/Santa Clara and Ventura/Los Angeles), Cuesta Grade is certainly the best possible place to do it. Don't you agree?

[Tekken_Guy]

Here's a list of all the competitive seats.

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1453105713132150785?s=20

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1453105715879432192?s=20

And there is CA-01 which is now a narrow Trump seat. Only seats I would really be disappointed about looking at it from a purely D perspective would be the successors to CA-07 (incorrectly labeled CA-04 here unless we treat CA-03 as the cut seat) and CA-10. Porter is the clear winner, though that was natural given Irvine's transformation.

I'd say that Jim Costa's seat could go down in a red wave. It's not that different from Valadao's.

[Tekken_Guy]

Roughly what's the net change in number of trump and biden seats ?

Trump barely wins the successor CA-10 and CA-48 seats under these lines, though Biden wins the successor CA-50 and CA-22 seats, so its 45-7 cause dems down one through reapportioned. That said, there are only four seats I would say are Safe R on this map, whereas there are presently six or seven depending on your measure. GOP trades two safe seats for two swing ones of various loyalties and the CA-01 successor is marginal. The two marginals might not remain so: CA-48 is GOP by a tiny bit so moving a few precincts may change the topline, CA10 could drop the white precincts in the east of San Joaquin given Latino interests. I think the CA-08 successor got less competitive without Rancho Cucamonga though.

Of course there are new Dem marginal seats on the other side of the coin.

Rancho Cucamonga itself is currently in CA-31 so CA-08 couldn't have dropped it. It actually appears to have gotten more competitive as it dropped a lot of small Republican towns around Joshua Tree and 29 Palms to CA-36 and some of the GOP-leaning suburbs north of Rancho Cucamonga to CA-27, but picked up Redlands, which is a Democratic-leaning city.