I saw an approval rating of 40% for Senator Boozman. In a high-participation election he could lose to a moderate Democrat, especially if Barack Obama loses relevance in the campaign.
Were you asleep in 2014? Did you not see how every single Democrat got stomped on? Not to mention his disapproval rating is probably less than 40%, but Democrats in Arkansas are a thing of the past.
Pat Hays only lost by eight points, which, all things considered, is a pretty respectable margin. I know it's a House race and much smaller electorate, but I'd hardly consider that getting "stomped on."