Ohio redistricting thread

[Stuart98]

Tried my hand at an Ohio map



2016 presidential vote: 8 R - 7 D

2016 two party vote (via districtr, doesn't quite match up with the DRA districts because districtr uses different precincts)

01 - D 55.1, R 44.9
02 - D 33.4, R 66.6
03 - D 27.2, R 72.8
04 - D 47.1, R 52.9
05 - D 26.3, R 73.7
06 - D 50.6, R 49.4
07 - D 57.0, R 43.0
08 - D 46.7, R 53.3
09 - D 40.5, R 59.5
10 - D 28.6, R 71.4
11 - D 48.8, R 51.2
12 - D 50.6, R 49.4
13 - D 51.6, R 48.4
14 - D 64.3, R 35.7
15 - D 57.3, R 42.7

[Stuart98]

Edited to improve compactness (and potential legality issues)



New 2016 vote share:


01 - D 57.1, R 42.9
02 - D 31.0, R 69.0
03 - D 26.2, R 73.8
04 - D 47.2, R 52.8
05 - D 25.1, R 74.9
06 - D 50.6, R 49.4
07 - D 57.0, R 43.0
08 - D 46.7, R 53.3
09 - D 40.5, R 59.5
10 - D 30.4, R 69.6
11 - D 48.8, R 51.2
12 - D 50.4, R 49.6
13 - D 51.3, R 48.7
14 - D 64.3, R 35.7
15 - D 57.3, R 42.7

[Stuart98]

Tried doing an R gerrymander under the cube root rule with 24 districts (note: I apportioned with 693 total districts but included DC and PR as states; otherwise Ohio would have had 25 districts).



Conclusion: Potency of R gerrymandering would be significantly reduced w/ more districts. (And even this map required bending the rules a few times, eg splitting Hamilton and Summit thrice and Cuyahoga four times).

[Stuart98]

Fair-ish map I guess, more of a very light GOP gerrymander, but whatever


https://davesredistricting.org/join/f0acdedc-4596-44d7-8ae1-bd171342fecc

I think the possibility of a Franklin/Delaware seat is underrated especially since Democrats can push for a commission if they don't get the concessions that they want, and it's tough to justify tri cuts of Franklin for any reason other than partisanship, when you can get neat cuts like this.

Your 15th is illegal; all districts must either be completely contained in a county or contain a whole county.

Your 14th and 4th are legal, but ugly as hell.

[Stuart98]

Did a fair cube root rule map of Ohio.
Several counties are split more times than is legally permitted. In the case of Cuyahoga, Hamilton, and Franklin, this is because it's difficult or impossible to stick few enough cube root rule districts inside them. In the case of Butler and Lorain, this is because it was the only way to ensure that the 2nd and 18th districts (respectively) contained a whole county. This results in an annoying snake in the 2nd's case. Clinton won 10/24 districts in 2016. Biden probably lost the 13th (Clinton barely won it) but he might have picked up the 2nd and 17th.

[Stuart98]

Here's one that not only fits the legal parameters, but also keeps every GOP representative in his district (except perhaps Wenstrup or Chabot, both within Hamilton County). 



Cincinnati district (Chabot) is Trump+3 in 2020
Green (Wenstrup) and purple (Turner) nearby are Trump +10
Latta vs Kaptur in the northwest, mostly Latta's turf.  Trump +11.6
Davidson gets yellow district, Trump +34.  It's ugly because Jim Jordan lives in the southern end of the red district (Trump+24)
Gonzalez gets lavender near Cleveland, Joyce the dark navy blue in the northeast, both Trump +10 or 11
Akron district is open, Trump +5.
Gibbs gets grey Canton district, adds Youngstown: Trump +20
Bill Johnson for light blue Ohio River district, Trump +33
Balderson's green district is Trump +24
and the last pink district (tbd in the special election) is Trump+21

You've got several districts that are illegal because they have non-contiguous county cuts. Dark blue's Cuyahoga cut, mint green's Franklin cut, green's Warren cut, and purple's Greene cut are all illegal.

[Stuart98]

President 2020

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d5e128d7-a7c1-49ff-ae2f-d12616e77875

Basically 2-3 safe seats (Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinatti), along with some Lean D seats and the rest Solid GOP. One tilt R tossup centered on Dayton.

7 D - 8 R

Obviously never going to happen with the Ohio GOP at the helm.

Very illegal, you have a bunch of districts with dual county splits. A given pair of districts are only allowed to split one county between each other.

[Stuart98]

And here is a map that actually gets very close to a "fair" map. The Akron based CD, OH-14, was just about dead even for Trump 2020.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9014bb57-d79d-4f99-aad2-cf150a01e1e5

3-1-11 is not a fair map lol

[Stuart98]

Fair map:

[Stuart98]

Note: Part of Columbus is also in Fairfield county.

Your lawyering over what "significant portion" means is balderdash. My 3rd district includes 63% of Columbus (more if you restrict it to the Franklin portion of the city), and that portion of it accounts for 73% of the population of my 3rd district. Under no reasonable interpretation would that not qualify as "attempting to include a significant portion of the city in a single district". Contiguity of city chops, unlike contiguity of county chops, is not at issue in the law.

[Stuart98]

So, surprise surprise, the commission has officially failed to draw a map and congressional mapmaking is headed back to the legislature. What do we think is the most likely scenario now? Is there any chance that Republicans don't go for a four-year map? Will they try to split Hamilton twice and pair Cincinnati with a bunch of rurals, thereby saving Chabot? Will the Ohio Supreme Court get involved and, if so, what will they do?

Aren't there unambiguous, constitutionally binding rules against unnecessary county-splitting?

Technically I think the amendment passed in 2018 allows Hamilton County to be split twice as long as no actual cities within it are split. A bunch of laser eyes teens on Twitter have taken this to mean that they're going to go for a 13-2 map, but I tend to think that's pretty unlikely.

About that...

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1455910735834501128

[Stuart98]

Jesus christ that is horrific and not even efficient. It also looks objectively illegal( as in a judge can't ignore it) because of the Toledo seat.

Also 12/13/14 due to joint county splitting.

[Stuart98]

Senate plan is still illegal, 7 and 14 both split two counties between eachother. Unless I'm mistaken, the only situation where that's allowed is if both counties have a population over 400k.

EDIT: Hmm, the state constitution isn't actually clear on this.

    (7) No two congressional districts shall share portions of the territory of more than one county, except for a county whose population exceeds four hundred thousand.

Gonna be litigated, but Republicans probably have the case that only one of the two counties has to be over 400k. OHSC will throw it out for other reasons though.

[Stuart98]

lolhttps://twitter.com/dskolnick/status/1456331028373643273?t=NVn2ahjdhyobx-i3JmYRw...

[Stuart98]

quick and dirty attempt at making their map even worse

[Stuart98]

Why didn't democrats vote for it?

Because they plan on suing in court to get a map that is more compliant with the rules?

Ok but the court will likely be more pro-gerrymandering post 2022 and republicans will make an even more egregious map in 2026 and the courts won't strike that down

Won't a court-drawn map be in place for 10 years? If it's only in place for four then the 2018 initiative was even dumber than I thought.

[Stuart98]

I've done some further edits. These changes impacted 8 of 15 seats, though in the case of one district, it was merely to put in one precinct split for reasons of compliance with Ohio law.

The 12th can be made more competitive if it scoops into South Franklin and drops some deep blue parts to the 3rd.

That would make both the 12th and 3rd less compact. I'm stressing compactness, less county and township splits, and other types of CoI anyway, though I have expended some effort in making the map D-friendly on the margins due to Rs having significantly more solid seats, when it does not majorly disfavor any of those three goals. My Toledo CD is an example of such a move.

this is the latest iteration.

Your OH-9 breaks the Ohio constitution because it neither contains a whole county nor is entirely contained within a single county. A compliant map that only has 2 districts in Cuyahoga and attaches Lorain cannot be drawn.

That used to be my understanding of it, but I've since heard conflicting information.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351688.msg8332637#msg8332637

lfromnj is wrong about there being "no such rule", but it is phrased weakly ("shall attempt to" rather than just "shall").

(B)( 8 ) The authority drawing the districts shall attempt to include at least one whole county in each congressional district. This division does not apply to a congressional district that is contained entirely within one county or that cannot be drawn in that manner while complying with federal law.

[Stuart98]

Revised my fair Ohio map:



This should be fully compliant with all the legal requirements in Ohio.

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1509182216064143361

Uhhhh, doesn't this have the rather obvious problem that Ohio is only entitled to 15 representatives now but the old maps have 16 seats? Can hardly see how it would be legal to elect 16 reps.

Maybe he means a least-change map?
I dunno what a least-change map even would look like, though. Which seat gets chopped? 7?

This is what I was able to do for a least change.

Your black district is illegal, splits multiple counties without having a whole one.

[Stuart98]

Round and around and around she goes. Where she stops, nobody knows.

[Stuart98]

Fair, legal Ohio:

[Stuart98]

Don't they have to revisit this in two years regardless? What's the point here?