Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.

Maybe they lost their darts.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Charles Franklin, the Marquette Law pollster, has an interesting thread on the SurveyMonkey results: https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/939351655715430401.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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Who stands to benefit from this? Or can't we tell?

Madison County includes Huntsville, and Tuscaloosa is home to the University of Alabama.  In theory, these should be good areas for Jones.  Another post upthread also mentions high absentee requests in Montgomery and Jefferson (Birmingham) which are also areas Jones needs.  It also mentioned upticks in Houston (Dothan) and Etowah (Gadsden), which should be strong Moore areas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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Who stands to benefit from this? Or can't we tell?

Madison County includes Huntsville, and Tuscaloosa is home to the University of Alabama.  In theory, these should be good areas for Jones.  Another post upthread also mentions high absentee requests in Montgomery and Jefferson (Birmingham) which are also areas Jones needs.  It also mentioned upticks in Houston (Dothan) and Etowah (Gadsden), which should be strong Moore areas.

A little more on this:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Everyone person voting for Moore I know is voting assuming he will be expelled by the Senate.

That's a very shaky assumption.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Jones may very well win, but him winning by double digits just isn't possible. Missouri is much more liberal than Alabama.

Sure, no one said he would win by double digits, just that there's a possibility he outperforms the polling average by a lot like Northam or McCaskill.

Yeah, I think Jones winning by 5-6% wouldn't be incredibly surprising given the circumstances here, and the fact that this is a low turnout special election two weeks before Christmas.

With all the headlines and hubbub, I wouldn't be so sure about that whole "low turnout" thing.

Didn't the Alabama AG predict 20% turnout?

He started at 25%, lowered it to 20% due to voter "frustration and exhaustion", then raised it to "at least 25%" due to the very high absentee ballot requests.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Horrible that Grumps died and left us with Fuzzy Bear and Arkansas Confederate as our resident olds. We really do need to set age floors and ceilings.

*ahem*

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson poll tweets that their poll released tomorrow morning will show one candidate taking control

Emerson Poll Podcast‏ @EmersonPodcast
New @emersonpolling -> One candidate TAKES CONTROL in #ALSen - Has Doug Jones completed the COMEBACK v #RoyMoore ? Find out Monday morning on the podcast | SUBSCRIBE:

https://twitter.com/EmersonPodcast/status/939914880316002304

I hate this.

It will all be over soon.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

I feel confident in predicting that the final result will be somewhere between these two polls.

At this point, I'm not even confident in that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Hang on, why are we shifting our estimates towards Jones? Just because of Fox?

Fox polls usually favor the republican slightly, so the fact Jones is up by nearly double digits in a poll by them is extremely good news for liberals, and most people on this site are liberals. Of course, overall these past two polls haven't changed the average, my best guess is that it was 2 polls in highly democratic or republican areas.

I thought FOX polls actually favored the Dem slightly, at least last year.

Fox polls conducted by Anderson & Shaw (as in this case) are rated A by 538 with a bias of D+0.4.  538 also has an entry for Fox polls conducted by Opinion Dynamics, which is rated B and R+0.5.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

I am extremely ready for this election to be over.

Just try living here.. I can't wait for the constant commercials, phone calls, mail, etc. to stop.

Those of us in metro Atlanta sympathize (#ga06).  Cheer up, it will all be over soon.

[GeorgiaModerate]

When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?

No idea.  I'm not even sure we know who they're from.  Hopefully at least one will be a high-quality pollster and not some nocturnal aviation company.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Of the two polls still coming out, I am not joking, one of them just announced that it could be a narrow lead for Moore, a tie, or a narrow lead for Jones (Monmouth.)

Here's the Monmouth poll: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AL_121117/

With 2017-based turnout model:

Jones 46
Moore 46

With higher turnout:

Jones 48
Moore 45

With lower historical turnout:

Moore 48
Jones 44

[GeorgiaModerate]

More from SurveyMonkey...long but interesting: https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/past-vote-vs-intention-an-alabama-senate-race-update/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, the big day is here.  A few words of advice:

1. Don't read too much into anecdotal turnout or weather reports.

2. Ignore trolls.

3. If there are early exit poll results, take them with a grain of salt.

4. Have fun!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looks like its going to rain in Birmingham and Montgomery today. Jones is done.

There is a 0% chance of rain in both cities, according to intellicast.com

Reported for (ongoing) trolling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A good writeup on what benchmarks Jones may need: https://medium.com/@ZacMcCrary/what-ill-be-watching-on-election-night-in-alabama-5ee7e10a68d8

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

What a surprise.

Yeah, the word "surprisingly" was the only surprising part of the statement.

[GeorgiaModerate]

early reports of extremely high turnout in Shelby county suggest massive win for JEB!

But what about Waukesha County?

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is sounding like GA-06 were people thought the higher turnout favored Ossoff but it actually pulled Handel over the line due to sheer numbers

One difference is that the massive early vote in GA-06 made election day turnout reports hard to figure (or rather, even harder than they already are.)  AL doesn't have no-excuse absentee voting, so the vast majority of votes will be cast on E-Day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Since the ballot records can be destroyed immediately after the election, I imagine Moore will be officially pronounced the winner, whatever the networks say.

The AL GOP needed to be exposed and prosecuted for their blatantly obvious fraud in 2002 (they didn't even try to hide it well). When you let them get away with it once, they'll do it again and again.

Didn't someone say that a court had ordered them to preserve the records?

Also, five hours until polls close.

Yes, but I saw a report that the AL Supreme Court stayed the order.  http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364430-alabama-supreme-court-stays-order-to-preserve-voting-records-in-senate

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Moore is seen as toxic to so many GOP leaning voters, why did he win the primary by a comfortable margin?

Why didn't they come out and vote against him in the runoff?

The scandal story broke after the runoff.  If it had happened earlier, I'm sure Moore would have lost.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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