The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[PaperKooper]

I, for one, enjoy your thoroughness, Mr. Morden, and hope you continue it.  This thread is a great resource for staying abreast of all the news and speculation. 

[PaperKooper]

Not to be rude, but can we keep this thread on topic?  It's for news about potential candidates. 

[PaperKooper]

Are we going to have to have a A team and B team debates like the Republicans did in 2016?

Yes, but with a twist.  The DNC said they would randomly assign candidates to debates on two sequential days if necessary. 

[PaperKooper]

At the end of this interview:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/02/17/sotu-sherrod-full.cnn

Brown says he'll have a timetable for a 2020 decision in the next three weeks or so (actually, I didn't quite make out if he was saying that he'll have a timetable in the next three weeks, or that his timetable is the next three weeks), and that his chances of running are about 50/50.  When pressed on that some more, he says maybe it's actually 51/49.

After listening to the interview, I'm leaning towards that his timetable is the next three or so weeks, but I agree it isn't very clear. 

[PaperKooper]

Tomorrow's President's Day, so I guess there's some chance that someone uses the symbolism to announce (at least an exploratory committee).  Probably won't happen, but it's a possibility.  Could be Sanders.  Otherwise, I'm actually wondering if Swalwell might pull the trigger as early as tomorrow.  Not sure he's ready yet, but he's been talking recently as if it's more imminent.  And he's in Iowa right now, where he was born.  Maybe he takes the opportunity to announce there.  If not Sanders or Swalwell, then I don't know who else might announce as early as tomorrow, if anyone.  Inslee?

If no one announces on President's Day, then I guess there's also Washington's Birthday later in the week.

Bloomberg and O'Rourke are the other candidates who have said they will decide this month, although I tend to think Bloomberg is waiting for Biden to decide.  All three are at least somewhat plausible for surprise annoucements on President's Day. 

[PaperKooper]

OK, guys, get ready for a huge update on Democratic primaries news:

- At present, only Kamala, Gillibrand and Booker candidatures matter. Bernie and Warren doesn't count as they are both being engaged in a brawl (of their own fault) with DNC;

- Although doesn't leading in the polls, Booker seems to be running the most measured and deliberative campaign (electability will be the major issue in 2020, no matter what progressives would say), he's currently doing some intensive lobbying in East Coast big capital areas (Boston, NYC, Philly, DC);

- Kamala is in cahoots with Kirsten. They both formed loose-fitting campaign alliance as they are both women, both in similar age, both from coasts (Kamala from West, Gillibrand from East), but Gillibrand's campaign have no real strategy or something in a long run, she's said be to going around Harris political influence anyway;

- Bernie and Warren are publicly seen as a fellow partisan compatriots, but behind the scenes they are harshly chasing each other, and it seems that Bernie winning this race as of now;

- Biden still and still and still and still and still procrastinates. The thing is that he receives different feedback when talking to grassroots and to Democratic strategists and staffers;

- Kirmala (portmanteau of Kamala and Kirsten) openly attacked Bernie and Warren and their progressive minions for doing what they are doing within the frames of DNC, they both even wanted to bring this case to FBI or to block DNC's support for these two, but DNC boss, Perez ruled out these decisions, because these problems within Democrats could as well get to the circles close to GOP

Do your sources still say that Sherrod Brown has a lock on the VP slot?

[PaperKooper]

Does the reasoning behind Biden's forever-dither really come from his son's widow dating his other son? Is that what 'family considerations' is code for? Are there awkward and embarrassing details about that love triangle that would come out in the scrutiny of a campaign?

I doubt it.  Biden publicly acknowledged and approved of it last year (might have been two years).  It's certainly a really strange situation, but it's probably not really connected to Joe. 

[PaperKooper]

Thanks for posting the updates on Cuban and Amash.  Finding sources on those types of people is always tricky. 

[PaperKooper]

Bloomberg not running probably means Biden is. 

[PaperKooper]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/13/politics/florida-mayor-wayne-messam-2020-committee

Wayne Messam launched an exploratory committee.