The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[henster]

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/julian-castro-says-hes-likely-to-challenge-trump-in-2020
Seems to me that Julian is in...I don't know what to think about this.

I actually think that Castro will do better then people expect. He'll probably be the only Hispanic at the big debate. (sorry but Virgin Garcetti is going to be on the edge of the undercard debate) No way he's the nominee though. I figure he bets big on Nevada but drops out afterwards.

I don't see him making the main debate, which will kill his campaign. Same for Garcetti, most who end up in the undercard debate will drop out before Iowa because almost none of them will make it to the main one. Only Fiorina made it out of the undercard and only because the rules had to be changed for her.

[henster]

Hickenlooper, while in NH, says he's "leaning strongly" towards running:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/john-hickenlooper-leaning-strongly-toward-a-2020-presidential-run

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ooooOOOOooOooOoooOhhh

Another person who won't make the main debate stage.

[henster]

Brown's presidential campaign ended the moment the race was called for Mike DeWine, with the way the Senate it loosing right now any Dem Sen/GOP Gov is a no go.

[henster]

Harris has been “building a network for black candidates”:

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/kamala-harris-is-building-a-network-for-black-candidates.html

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Bernie was the only Senator to endorse Gillum in the primary. I guess he just wasn't the right type of black for Harris. Harris endorsed white Buffy Wicks over black Hispanic lesbian immigrant Jovanka Beckles. You only hear about identity politics when it benefits the establishment candidate.

It's not like she endorsed Graham and tried to take Gillum down. But go off

She did endorse Buffy Wicks over Jovanka Beckles and Nancy O'Malley over Pamela Price. And she certainly didn't endorse an actually progressive black woman named K. Harris who ran for Senate in Delaware.

WHY DIDN'T SHE ENDORSE JOHN JAMES? SAD!

I'm sure she would've endorsed James had actually gotten a serious primary challenge (sarcasm).

Had Abrams and Gillum won they'd obviously would've been kingmakers in the primary, having no one right now in either FL/GA obviously leaves things up in the air. Abrams would've definitely endorsed Harris while Gillum maybe Booker but its moot atp.

[henster]

Harris's team has poached O'Rourke's digital consultant

Boo. If anything will guarantee a Trump reelection, it's a Kamala Harris candidacy.

Um why. She's not nearly as toxic as say Warren.

I'm starting to think about the nuisances candidates have won't matter. Look at Sinema, with all her baggage she managed to pull off a win riding on anti-Trump coattails.

[henster]

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that Marianne Williamson is going to be 2020's Carly Fiorina. A successful businesswoman and compelling speaker who will surge after a few good debate performances and then plummet back down due to a small, under-funded campaign that can't withstand the debate bump.

Williamson is a lot less rich than Fiorina...but there's a chance this could be true.

I think that's more likely to be Tulsi Gabbard than anyone else but she may end up making the main debate stage anyways.

[henster]

These boring white male Senators have zero chance. They will lose as badly as Dodd did in 2008.

I really wonder what's going through their head to make them think they'd have any shot. Honestly it's not hard to read the trends of what base of the Dem party wants. It's female and non-white, its pretty obvious too but so many are intent on wasting their time and money.

[henster]

Let me make it clear, Trump’s 2020 opponent will win if she can fit in a clear contrast with him, esp. visually, that is a female, young, policy-oriented, with government/service experience, eloquent, with a low pitch voice.

Find someone with these features, and stop enlisting dumb old white males.

Gabbard probably fits those categories she's visually appealing and has a nice soothing voice plus the military background. But she has a huge amount of baggage but so did Trump so who knows.

[henster]

What appeal does Deval Patrick have?  Does he have any distinguishing features that I just don't know of?

He's one of only two elected black Governors ever elected and a decent orator, Obama was even accused of plagiarizing from Patrick back in 2008.

[henster]

Gabbard was  in New Hampshire today, and was asked about 2020.  She said that she’s “seriously considering” a presidential run, but has no specific decision timeline in mind right now:

https://www.civilbeat.org/2018/12/tulsi-gabbard-for-president-i-am-seriously-considering-it/

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Gabbard would legit be the worst Dem nominee in years. She's horrific.

Excellent news! She would be forced out of the HI primary if thats the case, depriving her of her house seat. She wouldnt win the presidential primary, and would just be one of the longshots who throw everything away for an iota of a chance.

Personally I think this is why she won’t run. She knows she can’t win - at least this cycle - and she’d be throwing away her congressional seat and platform. Also, if Sanders runs she loses her biggest asset of being able to run as a Sanders supporter.

Can't she run for both at the same time?

[henster]

What appeal does Deval Patrick have?  Does he have any distinguishing features that I just don't know of?

He has great optics/character. A decent mix of progressive/establishment beliefs. One of the few African American governors in U.S. history.

Suffers from a lack of national popularity and a lot of ties to the Democratic establishment.

In a competitive primary, I can see his campaign going identically to that of Scott Walker's in 2016. Popular governor to the politicos, wins a poll or two, does good for a month or so and his campaign proceeds to nosedive completely.

His biggest challenge is making it into the main debate and not the undercard debate. This will become a huge problem for a lot candiates like Bullock as well with little name ID. I mean nobody's talking about him outside of this forum and some blogs, he has less than 40K followers on twitter and 50K on FB. The rules are going to have to be pretty lax for him to make it to the main debate.

[henster]

Politico on Gillum.

I love Gillum and Abrams as much as (probably more than) I love Beto but to the people asking why the latter gets more attention than the former two, I would think the answer is obvious: Beto has federal experience, while Abrams only has state experience and Gillum doesn't even have that. Beto should run; Abrams should run for Senate; Gillum should wait and see what 2022's like in the Senate and Governorship in FL. Or maybe US House?

If Gillum were governor-elect, maybe (though he shouldn't've abandoned the state after two years). Ex-mayor Gillum? No.

I mean how about Paulette Jordan she outperformed Hillary by 10 points! Or Fred Hubbell he almost won too, James Smith had a respectable performance against McMaster... The bar is really being lowered, I know Trump but there's a difference between running having never run for anything before and running after losing a huge race.

[henster]

Harris and Biden were spotted together in DC... Which makes me think either she was trying to convince him not to run or he was trying to convince her to be his VP in the primary. Or they did just had a friendly chat about whatever.

https://twitter.com/adamslily/status/1072964861456457728

[henster]

https://twitter.com/amanbatheja/status/1073709813123739648

Seems like a lot of hubris from Biden thinking people will bend over backwards to be his VP through the primary. I have no idea why Beto or any other major candidate would hitch onto a Biden ticket.

[henster]

There will be at least 3 vets running if Buttigieg runs which is pretty impressive for the party. Unfortunately all of the likely candidates are lower tier, wish we had more viable vet candidates considering many were part of the success in 2018.

[henster]

There will be at least 3 vets running if Buttigieg runs which is pretty impressive for the party. Unfortunately all of the likely candidates are lower tier, wish we had more viable vet candidates considering many were part of the success in 2018.

Duckworth would be a strong candidate but has shown no signs that she's running.

Duckworth not running is the biggest disappoint for me, she has so much political talent. Literally the best attributes Dems could hope for in a candidate.

[henster]

Buttigieg is a classic book deal candidate I've put Ojeda in this category too but he seems like more of  grifter than anything. Buttigieg is looking to earn his spot as a commentator on CNN/MSNBC, the alternative is fading into obscurity with no where to go in a red state.

[henster]

I'm worried Gillibrand will play too much Identity politics. Out of all the females candidate she is likely to play woman's card. Right now she has a steep hill to climb. I think voters will perceive her is saying what they want to hear rather than what she believes in. It's easy to accuse her of pandering.

It just won't work when there are a bunch of other women running. She needs to distinguish herself, one thing that sets her apart from most of the field is that she's the only young mother. That would be really endearing with women primary voters and parents, she needs to be pushing family issues instead of feminism.

[henster]

Dunno if we caught this, but

https://twitter.com/petebuttigieg/status/1075031309632892930?s=21

The Mayor is headed to Iowa!

I don't understand Buttigieg hype.  The guy was mayor of a city of 100,000.  South Bend isn't in the top 10,25,50, or even 100 cities.  According to Wikipedia it's ranked 301 in the US.  And he's not even like Ojeda, who has a message that's especially different from the party mainstream.  Don't get me wrong, I don't hate the guy, but Pete Buttigieg just doesn't seem like Presidential material at this time.

But if this is how we're going to do things, Boulder Mayor Suzanne "Zan" Jones 2020!  She runs the 280th largest city in the US.

I think Trump's win has really eroded the idea that a president needs tons of prior experience.

This I really do not understand - are we seriously taking Trump as the benchmark of credibility now?

And a businessman is not really a bad spring board to run for President, it is an executive position. Any CEO of a large company will most likely deal a lot with policy and oversees an organization as complex as the federal government. The responsibilities of a Mayor are far smaller, it's usually diluted by a city council and their role is largely fixing potholes and passing ordinances.

[henster]

This participation trophy candidacy trend lately with Dems is weird, oh you lost but you still can run for President even if you lost a completely winnable race. It's infuriating considering there are perfectly good Dems out there like Klobuchar who seriously have amazing electoral records.

[henster]

Bernie on the debate stage with a dozen other people 20-30 years younger than him is going to be such a jarring visual. Bernie and Beto in the same frame or Tulsi, he will definitely look out of place, imagine if he starts having a coughing fit too.

 

[henster]

I don't want to hear about Brown's ex-wife incident from cons endlessly for the next two years.

[henster]

It's pretty weird to not have your HQ in your home state, I mean Kamala has virtually no ties to Atlanta or Baltimore. Is being in the Eastern timezone that important?

[henster]

Kamala's biggest problem at this point is Cory Booker, she can't dominate the South as long as he's in the race. If either one stays in too long then they probably doom each others chances and greatly help Beto and other white progressives.

[henster]

Buttigieg probably won't be able to win a statewide race in Indiana. I see him getting a cabinet position (HUD or Transportation) in the next Democratic administration.

Also T-Mac would be a terrible nominee for the Democrats. As you pointed out, he's the ultimate DC insider in every way possible. Trump can just dust off the "Drain the Swamp" playbook and it will work just as well as it did against Hillary. He's even been under investigation for shady business dealings. Stunts like drinking rum on live TV just come off as pandering. Plus Bernie types will be completely turned off by him.

You're right about Buttgig. I hadn't really considered it but "presidential campaign as an audition for the cabinet" has actually become pretty common lately.

I agree T-Mac would be a bad candidate on many levels, I'm just pointing out that if he's serious about running then he will be treated as a major candidate by the media and by "conventional wisdom", not reduced to the level of Buttgig _{(btw note that I'm not saying anything about how he'll actually perform in the primary, just saying how seriously his campaign will be treated. He could very well end up as the Jeb! of 2020)}

I think McAuliffe is at the bottom of the totem pole at least when it comes to old white dudes running. Inslee and Hickenlooper both have more impressive records than him, honestly T-Mac didn't really accomplish all that much as Gov thanks to the GOP, but still. What is he really going to run on besides restoring felon rights and vetoing a bunch of bills?