The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Mr. Morden]

Beto opts not to run for Senate, will likely announce Presidential bid in the coming weeks.

Here's the relevant quote:

Beto O'Rourke has decided not to run for Senate next year against Republican incumbent John Cornyn and likely will announce a campaign for president soon, people close to the former El Paso congressman told The Dallas Morning News Wednesday.

Numerous people close to O'Rourke said they expect him to announce his presidential campaign within weeks. For his own part, O'Rourke on Wednesday wouldn't reveal his future political plans except to say he has made up his mind.

"Amy and I have made a decision about how we can best serve our country," he said in an exclusive statement to The Dallas Morning News. "We are excited to share it with everyone soon."

This was four days ago now, and I'd say it's actually kind of unusual that we haven't heard any followup news about O'Rourke planning his announcement.  By which I mean, presidential candidates don't often publicly admit that they've made a decision until they have the public rollout planned, and details of said launch are leaked to the press.  In most cases, for that matter, they don't admit that their decision has been made until the day they tell the world what that decision is (though again, details of the rollout plan often leak well before that).

This doesn't mean that I've grown skeptical that O'Rourke is going to run.  I'm assuming he is running, or else he already would have told us he wasn't.  But the fact that he made a public statement saying that he's come to his decision while still dithering on when/where to make that announcement seems to be a sign that he's not doing things the normal way.  It reminds me a little of Gabbard's weird rollout, except she actually said what her decision was before the rollout was ready.

[TheSaint250]

Hickenlooper is in:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-hickenlooper-2020-former-colorado-governor-announces-run-for-president/

Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper has tossed his hat into the Democratic presidential ring. He announced his 2020 candidacy early Monday with a campaign video that hits the highlights of his career as a two-term governor and two-term Denver mayor. He addresses recession, droughts and floods, and the mass shooting in Aurora in 2012.

Hickenlooper just finished his second term in the statehouse. He was a popular, pro-business governor. He left Colorado with a strong economy and his tenure was marked by an emphasis on consensus-building.

It's that record that he's touting in the campaign video. "I'm running for president because we need dreamers in Washington but we also need to get things done," Hickenlooper says in the video. "I've proven again and again I can bring people together to produce the progressive change Washington has failed to deliver."

As governor, Hickenlooper also signed an expansion of Medicaid in 2013. He has not expressed support for a single-payer health system.

[136or142]

Democrats (and quite a few independants) DO love Joe Biden. Lots of Ds on this sub and Bernie bots on other social media platforms seem to dislike him though, making it seem as though he is unpopular.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/422084-biden-tops-2020-dems-for-favorability-rating-in-new-poll

They like Joe Biden as he is now, the former VP to a President they strongly like and admire.

If/when he runs for President as championing the pre-2016 status quo, and inevitably has multiple gaffes, they aren't gonna like him as much. He may not implode but his numbers are gonna come down to Earth pretty fast.

This was the same thing when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was retired from politics from 2012-2015.

Also, Eric Holder has announced he isn't running for President.

[morgieb]

What do people think of the odds of the Democrats still considering getting in? It sounds like Beto's all but certain to do so, Bullock looks very likely (but could be squeezed out?), Biden is a likely yes, Swalwell and McAuliffe sound somewhat likely to take the plunge, Brown looks more likely than not, Bloomberg's about 50/50, Bennet and de Blasio possibles but probably less than 50/50 at this point and the rest probably won't take the plunge.

Are my theories correct?

[Tender Branson]

It should be noted that out of 14 major declared candidates so far (incl. Yang and Marianne), only 6 are women.

And of the 15 who are mentioned by the media to weigh a candidacy, 14 are men ...

[Mr. Morden]

Holder says he won't run:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/04/politics/eric-holder-not-running-2020/index.html

"Though I will not run for president in 2020, I will continue to fight for the future of our country through the National Democratic Redistricting Committee and its affiliates," Holder, who served under President Barack Obama, wrote in a Washington Post op-ed. He did not provide a reason for his decision.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

I have a feeling Swalwell is waiting for something to do with the Russia investigation -whether it's the Mueller report or something else - before he announces. He's all-but-certain to, made all the preparations, but he's yet to pull the trigger. Every time he's on the news, and boy does he love the cameras, it stems from his spots on the Judiciary and Intelligence committees. Maybe he's waiting for it to ramp up some more. Maybe he wants to be the 'investigate (and impeach) Trump' guy. Maybe he sees that as his lane.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Holder says he won't run:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/04/politics/eric-holder-not-running-2020/index.html

"Though I will not run for president in 2020, I will continue to fight for the future of our country through the National Democratic Redistricting Committee and its affiliates," Holder, who served under President Barack Obama, wrote in a Washington Post op-ed. He did not provide a reason for his decision.

That sucks, I was hoping he' d run and have the (many) Obama admin skeletons dragged out of the closet by his opportunistic rivals. But then again, the worst Obama era scandal took place when Loretta Lynch met Bill on the tarmac to begin plotting the coup.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/04/joe-biden-2020-1200671

A source close to McAuliffe confirmed that “Terry is watching Biden and feels that they appeal to a similar set of voters, but Biden’s decision will not be determinative of Terry’s.”

Similarly, a source familiar with Bloomberg’s decision-making process said of Biden that “he’s a factor. He’s not the factor.” As a self-made billionaire who’s ready to spend as much as $500 million in the 2020 cycle, Bloomberg is already polling and conducting focus groups.

Bloomberg had planned to announce his intentions last month and then postponed it to this month, leading to speculation that Biden’s presence was causing a delay — a position denied by Bloomberg aides. They say that, contrary to conventional wisdom in progressive circles, there’s a relatively broad base of moderate Democratic voters in the primary who won’t vote against a candidate simply for being a white male.

[RaphaelDLG]

It should be noted that out of 14 major declared candidates so far (incl. Yang and Marianne), only 6 are women.

And of the 15 who are mentioned by the media to weigh a candidacy, 14 are men ...

It's weird, it doesn't seem that way.  A lot of the candidates overall are men, and the tippy top tier (Bernie, Biden, Beto, Harris) is pretty male, but a lot of the second tier contenders are female (Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Warren).

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Democrats (and quite a few independants) DO love Joe Biden. Lots of Ds on this sub and Bernie bots on other social media platforms seem to dislike him though, making it seem as though he is unpopular.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/422084-biden-tops-2020-dems-for-favorability-rating-in-new-poll

They like Joe Biden as he is now, the former VP to a President they strongly like and admire.

If/when he runs for President as championing the pre-2016 status quo, and inevitably has multiple gaffes, they aren't gonna like him as much. He may not implode but his numbers are gonna come down to Earth pretty fast.

Additionally, he's out of step with the Democratic Party on multiple issues that the party is undeniably starting to moving left on (primarily economic issues). If Biden ends up winning the nomination and then wins the presidency, he'll rightfully face a lot of scrutiny from the left for not being progressive enough, if at all.

And on top of that, Biden seems a very likely target for #MeToo accusations, either sincere or GOP-generated.  Both from Thomas' confirmation hearings and the regular appearances of "Creepy Uncle Joe".

He would be a very poor choice for nominee. Fortunately, I doubt he's running.

[Mr. Morden]

What do people think of the odds of the Democrats still considering getting in? It sounds like Beto's all but certain to do so, Bullock looks very likely (but could be squeezed out?), Biden is a likely yes, Swalwell and McAuliffe sound somewhat likely to take the plunge, Brown looks more likely than not, Bloomberg's about 50/50, Bennet and de Blasio possibles but probably less than 50/50 at this point and the rest probably won't take the plunge.

Are my theories correct?

It sounds like O'Rourke has already decided to do it, but is just prepping an announcement.  After him, the next most likely to run are probably, IMHO, Swalwell and Brown.  On the other end of the spectrum, my guess is that de Blasio and Merkley are the least likely among those who are publicly mulling a run.  (Abrams is lower, but I don't know that she'd even count, since she hasn't explicitly said that a run for president is on her radar.  She's just dodged the question while explicitly saying that she's thinking about a Senate run, unlike the others at this point.)  Maybe Moulton and Ryan would also fit in the sub-50/50 category.

But everyone else is in between, somewhere in the 50/50 zone, IMHO.  So that's Bennet, Biden, Bloomberg, Bullock, and McAuliffe.  Not sure exactly how to order them.  Yes, I realize that Biden is at ~80% to run on PredictIt, but I think people are overreading his bluster.  Looking at both what he's said publicly, and the behind-the-scenes, it sounds like there's much more uncertainty.  Also, Bullock is another one that I might have thought about rating higher, but the fact that he's talking about waiting until May to decide leads me towards skepticism, so I'm still only at ~50/50 on him.  Maybe higher than that, but not by a lot.

[Grassroots]

Democrats (and quite a few independants) DO love Joe Biden. Lots of Ds on this sub and Bernie bots on other social media platforms seem to dislike him though, making it seem as though he is unpopular.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/422084-biden-tops-2020-dems-for-favorability-rating-in-new-poll

They like Joe Biden as he is now, the former VP to a President they strongly like and admire.

If/when he runs for President as championing the pre-2016 status quo, and inevitably has multiple gaffes, they aren't gonna like him as much. He may not implode but his numbers are gonna come down to Earth pretty fast.

Additionally, he's out of step with the Democratic Party on multiple issues that the party is undeniably starting to moving left on (primarily economic issues). If Biden ends up winning the nomination and then wins the presidency, he'll rightfully face a lot of scrutiny from the left for not being progressive enough, if at all.

And on top of that, Biden seems a very likely target for #MeToo accusations, either sincere or GOP-generated.  Both from Thomas' confirmation hearings and the regular appearances of "Creepy Uncle Joe".

He would be a very poor choice for nominee. Fortunately, I doubt he's running.

He's very likely to run, and the metooers can deal with it. Just because hes a straight white male doesn't mean they can just go after him without any actual evidence of anything.

Plus, they probably won't even go after him, because he's a democrat (Franken was a rare exception) and even if there is evidence against him of anything the media won't report it because again, he's a democrat. They only want to deflect the negative attention towards Trump.

[Harlow]

Democrats (and quite a few independants) DO love Joe Biden. Lots of Ds on this sub and Bernie bots on other social media platforms seem to dislike him though, making it seem as though he is unpopular.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/422084-biden-tops-2020-dems-for-favorability-rating-in-new-poll

They like Joe Biden as he is now, the former VP to a President they strongly like and admire.

If/when he runs for President as championing the pre-2016 status quo, and inevitably has multiple gaffes, they aren't gonna like him as much. He may not implode but his numbers are gonna come down to Earth pretty fast.

Additionally, he's out of step with the Democratic Party on multiple issues that the party is undeniably starting to moving left on (primarily economic issues). If Biden ends up winning the nomination and then wins the presidency, he'll rightfully face a lot of scrutiny from the left for not being progressive enough, if at all.

And on top of that, Biden seems a very likely target for #MeToo accusations, either sincere or GOP-generated.  Both from Thomas' confirmation hearings and the regular appearances of "Creepy Uncle Joe".

He would be a very poor choice for nominee. Fortunately, I doubt he's running.

He's very likely to run, and the metooers can deal with it. Just because hes a straight white male doesn't mean they can just go after him without any actual evidence of anything.

Plus, they probably won't even go after him, because he's a democrat (Franken was a rare exception) and even if there is evidence against him of anything the media won't report it because again, he's a democrat. They only want to deflect the negative attention towards Trump.

John Conyers? Keith Ellison?

[Sestak]

Democrats (and quite a few independants) DO love Joe Biden. Lots of Ds on this sub and Bernie bots on other social media platforms seem to dislike him though, making it seem as though he is unpopular.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/422084-biden-tops-2020-dems-for-favorability-rating-in-new-poll

They like Joe Biden as he is now, the former VP to a President they strongly like and admire.

If/when he runs for President as championing the pre-2016 status quo, and inevitably has multiple gaffes, they aren't gonna like him as much. He may not implode but his numbers are gonna come down to Earth pretty fast.

Additionally, he's out of step with the Democratic Party on multiple issues that the party is undeniably starting to moving left on (primarily economic issues). If Biden ends up winning the nomination and then wins the presidency, he'll rightfully face a lot of scrutiny from the left for not being progressive enough, if at all.

And on top of that, Biden seems a very likely target for #MeToo accusations, either sincere or GOP-generated.  Both from Thomas' confirmation hearings and the regular appearances of "Creepy Uncle Joe".

He would be a very poor choice for nominee. Fortunately, I doubt he's running.

He's very likely to run, and the metooers can deal with it. Just because hes a straight white male doesn't mean they can just go after him without any actual evidence of anything.

Plus, they probably won't even go after him, because he's a democrat (Franken was a rare exception) and even if there is evidence against him of anything the media won't report it because again, he's a democrat. They only want to deflect the negative attention towards Trump.

John Conyers? Keith Ellison?

Eric Schneiderman?
Also MeToo literally started with Weinstein, who was a noted Dem donor.

But it should be clear to anyone who reads this forum even a little bit that Grassroots is stuck in his own fantasy world.

[Roll Roons]

Democrats (and quite a few independants) DO love Joe Biden. Lots of Ds on this sub and Bernie bots on other social media platforms seem to dislike him though, making it seem as though he is unpopular.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/422084-biden-tops-2020-dems-for-favorability-rating-in-new-poll

They like Joe Biden as he is now, the former VP to a President they strongly like and admire.

If/when he runs for President as championing the pre-2016 status quo, and inevitably has multiple gaffes, they aren't gonna like him as much. He may not implode but his numbers are gonna come down to Earth pretty fast.

Additionally, he's out of step with the Democratic Party on multiple issues that the party is undeniably starting to moving left on (primarily economic issues). If Biden ends up winning the nomination and then wins the presidency, he'll rightfully face a lot of scrutiny from the left for not being progressive enough, if at all.

And on top of that, Biden seems a very likely target for #MeToo accusations, either sincere or GOP-generated.  Both from Thomas' confirmation hearings and the regular appearances of "Creepy Uncle Joe".

He would be a very poor choice for nominee. Fortunately, I doubt he's running.

He's very likely to run, and the metooers can deal with it. Just because hes a straight white male doesn't mean they can just go after him without any actual evidence of anything.

Plus, they probably won't even go after him, because he's a democrat (Franken was a rare exception) and even if there is evidence against him of anything the media won't report it because again, he's a democrat. They only want to deflect the negative attention towards Trump.

John Conyers? Keith Ellison?

Well, Ellison got elected  AG so he's not a great example. But there's Eric Schneiderman and Ruben Kihuen.

[President Johnson]

Cuomo says he'll defer to Biden but hasn't completely ruled out a run if Biden doesn't. As usual, Cuomo's virulently contemptuous of the professional left.

To be clear, this interview is from January, but is only being reported on now:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/03/andrew-cuomo-thinks-hes-best-democrat-beat-trump/583642/

Here’s how Andrew Cuomo ends our first interview at the beginning of January, sitting in a chair in his office, after eating cookie No. 4 from the tray his staff prepared. I put a simple question to him: “Would you like to be president?” He dodges it over and over by talking about how much he wants to do his job as governor well. Finally he says, Well, Joe Biden is running anyway.

A lot of people think Biden is going to run, I acknowledge, and the former vice president certainly seems to be moving in that direction. But Biden looked like he was about to run in 2015 too, only to end speculation at the last minute. So: What if he doesn’t?

“Call me back,” Cuomo says, and puts his hand out immediately to shake, ending a conversation that lasted through a bathroom break and a theatrical phone call with his daughter, in which he begged her not to try cooking him dinner because she’d make too much of a mess of the pots.

I'd love him to run, he would be my number 2 or 3 choice after Bullock and Harris.

[Spiffy]

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1102769079394492416?s=21

Merkley announcement tomorrow?

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/jeff-merkley-announce-president-plans-2020-senate-oregon/

[Merkley] has debated joining an increasingly crowded field for president. He also is up for re-election next year.
.
.
.
The letter Merkley sent supporters Monday night didn’t tip his hand:

"Since Donald Trump was elected, I’ve been traveling from coast to coast helping organize our resistance and get our country back on track. I’ve gone to the border many times to call attention to Trump’s prisons for children, filibustered the brazen theft of a Supreme Court seat, and helped organize the fight for a Green New Deal.

I’ve had extraordinary encounters in every corner of the country with amazing people who are giving everything they have to create an America that works for all of us. And I’ve been thinking hard about what I can give, how I can make the best contribution to the vital work in front of us."

The letter closes with a fundraising appeal and a promise of answers Tuesday.

[Mr. Morden]

Cuban:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/mavericks/2019/03/04/mark-cuban-mulling-2020-presidential-run/3062906002/

“It really would take the exact right set of circumstances,” Cuban, who is also known for his role on the reality TV show "Shark Tank," said in an interview with the New York Daily News before his Mavericks lost to the Brooklyn Nets on Monday night.

“I haven’t decided anything yet. We’ll see what happens. It all comes down to how things play out. It’s not something I feel like I have to do," Cuban said.

But he did add that “There’s a lot of uncertainty with what’s going on with the Mueller report, there’s a lot of things that have to be figured out before we know how 2020 is going to play out.

“But (running for president is) something that if circumstances were right I would.”

Cuban said if he did run, it would be as an independent.

Clinton:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/04/politics/hillary-clinton-2020/index.html

"I'm not running, but I'm going to keep on working and speaking and standing up for what I believe," the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee told CNN affiliate News 12 Westchester.

"I want to be sure that people understand I'm going to keep speaking out. I'm not going anywhere," Clinton said.

[PaperKooper]

Thanks for posting the updates on Cuban and Amash.  Finding sources on those types of people is always tricky. 

[Mr. Morden]

Sherrod Brown's wife Connie Schultz says the couple will decide whether Brown will go ahead with a presidential run "in the next few days", though Brown himself still isn't promising an announcement before the end of March:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2019/03/03/ohio-sen-sherrod-brown-finished-tour-next-2020-run-president/3044928002/

During an interview with The Enquirer Saturday in South Carolina, Brown and Schultz seemed like they're leaning towards the senator running, even if they didn't say it in so many words.

"We have seven grandchildren," Schultz said. "You know how people will say, 'what answer will we have for our grandchildren, or our children down the road when they ask why we didn't do something? A lot of people say it to be philosophical down the road, but we were actually grandparents who could have done something about it."

Brown promised an announcement either way by the end of March somewhere in Ohio. They wouldn't get more specific than that. He said his family must sign off on it.

[Tender Branson]

It‘s pretty clear to me that Merkley will run for Senate again.

[Skye]

Yikes this is the 2016 GOP field all over again.

[Skye]

It‘s pretty clear to me that Merkley will run for Senate again.

You are right:
https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1102883595952287744