UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[CumbrianLefty]

Ugh, that is probably the most depressing by-election result ever.

Its so bad its almost funny. Shades of Bradford West in 2012, even.

[CumbrianLefty]

An interesting detail is that the 'Sam' in the name of the independent 'Sam Lee' who took nearly ten percent is short for Samantha: she's a local businesswoman. I will admit that when I heard there would be a by-election here I assumed, given the reasons, the Labour shortlist would be AWS.

Yeah, whilst to blame this result entirely on Starmer is otiose (which hasn't stopped some people doing just that, obviously) the inescapable fact is that he was intimately involved with both the timing and choice of candidate (not to mention *how* that was done) in this byelection.

[CumbrianLefty]

Nuts when you think about it.

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1390590110052323331

Or is there maybe some actual correlation? "They (Labour) went down to Westminster and did nothing for us" is a refrain first heard in Scotland, then the North, again and again.

[CumbrianLefty]

There is now a thread up on Twitter about the outgoing Labour MP for Hartlepool, what they were in fact accused of doing and the murkiness of letting them back into the fold (basically unexplained, save for Hill's totally self serving spin that he had been "cleared") to stand again at the last GE.

It is fair to say it does not make pleasant reading.

There is a lot good about the British Labour party - one of the reasons it has endured for so long, even through being written off on more than one occasion. But in recent years belonging to it has become less and less of a pleasant experience, and more of more of a "faction first last and always" sewer.

(and yes, the left are certainly capable of being like this and have shown it since Starmer's election - but for maybe 15 years now, easily the worst offenders have been on the party's right)

Change, or die. You may not get another warning.

[CumbrianLefty]

Nuts when you think about it.

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1390590110052323331

Or is there maybe some actual correlation? "They (Labour) went down to Westminster and did nothing for us" is a refrain first heard in Scotland, then the North, again and again.

But not, at least, in wales today, where labour actually are in a position to do something.

Indeed, which shows just how good Drakeford actually is.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that is an.......over-simplistic reading of things. Labour going into a 2019 GE on an openly Lexit platform might have seen them lucky to get 150 seats never mind 200.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour would be hard pressed to be seen as more pro-Brexit than Boris Johnson shouting 'Get Brexit Done', yes. The trends could already be seen in 2017 anyway.

Yes.

Of course the Tories are doing well generally at these elections, and Labour not, but what we are also seeing in the local elections are the last "pre-Brexit" results being removed from the system.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that is an.......over-simplistic reading of things. Labour going into a 2019 GE on an openly Lexit platform might have seen them lucky to get 150 seats never mind 200.

Obviously Labour wasn't going to be pro Leave, but Corbyn was somewhat more neutral in 2017.

Yes, in 2017 the Labour approach to Brexit worked very well.

Unfortunately things polarised much further in the following few years, and not taking a firm line one way or the other became unviable. The final confirmation of this was the European elections (and the results of those put the fear of God into not just many Labour MPs, but several close to Corbyn)

[CumbrianLefty]

Well that "Heavy Woollen" mob are pro-Brexit (their big cheese is ex-UKIP) though it isn't their sole motivation and raison d'etre as it was for BxP.

But the first round voting for the W Yorks region shows a decent swing to Labour since the 2019 GE.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though the usual GALAXY BRAINS are likely suggesting Ed Balls already......

[CumbrianLefty]

Hartlepool is an absolute tossup as to who will win

Talk about expectations management.

This seat was easily won by Corbyn even in 2019, and when allegations against the Labour candidate were already known IIRC. BXP voters, who couldn't even bring themselves to vote Tory with that party running on a "Get Brexit Done" ticket, are very unlikely to vote Tory now; in this part of the world they are by and large ex-Labour. Add to that government by-election gains being rarer than hen's teeth.

This seat by all rights should be a Labour hold, even if they have troubles at local level. I doubt it would be fatal to Starmer's leadership, but failure to hold Hartlepool when a more toxic leader managed it would seriously undermine his position. You can imagine the crowing from the nuttiest parts of Labour.

Funny.

Not really, it was a fairly reasonable assumption at the time. The irony is that what happened was easy to "predict" if you don't know much about British politics, but quite surprising if you do (at least the size of the margin, but even the result itself). On Vote UK filled with British anoraks and generally centre-right leaning c. 70% of those voting in the poll thought it would be a Labour hold right up to the final day, including most Conservatives. The media narrative was that it would be a Tory win, but given the low quality of both political journalism and constituency polling in the UK that was hard to take entirely seriously.

Its one of those results that is "obvious" once it happens, but not before. And it drives home that Labour's election timing, candidate choice and actual campaign were all utterly disastrous.

[CumbrianLefty]

They should run a candidate because they’re a national party with 200 seats in the Commons. They’ve gotta fly the flag even if it doesn’t do very much good. Plus, whilst I don’t think the Lib Dems have a hope in Hell of winning the seat, Labour running a candidate lessens the chances of the anti-Tory vote coalescing around them. It would hardly be great optics if the Lib Dems win/come close in a safe Tory seat months after Labour losing a traditionally safe seat to the government (and yes, obviously, different circumstances but that’s not how it would play in the media).

I know it was a different time and all that, but back in 1993 the general view of the LibDems was that Labour putting up token candidates in Newbury/Christchurch helped rather than hindered them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Nothing really surprising although Labour didn't do that bad although this is a seat they need to win if they want to win back Scotland, but did narrowly outperform 2017.  However, I've found Scotland often swings in opposite direction of England and as mentioned above lots of unionist tactical voting.

I don't think this is actually that common (though the 2010 GE was one occasion when it did happen)

[CumbrianLefty]

There's a non-zero chance of Labour losing their deposit in this by-election.  Would this be seen as "Labour in disarray" or would it not be all that big a deal?  When last did one of the two big parties lose a deposit at a Westminster seat?

If the race is viewed as a Tory-Lib Dem contest then it wouldn't be that surprising. Labour lost their deposit at the Richmond Park by-election and I think almost did in Bromley and Chislehurst where they came fourth.

At this point I would be surprised if Labour didn't lose their deposit, and would think it reflected badly on the Lib Dem campaign.

LibDems surely need the Greens to also lose theirs to have any chance.

[CumbrianLefty]

No it wouldn't be surprising as such, but Greens are briefing they plan to campaign hard in this one.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour have selected a candidate, thereby annoying various "progressive alliance" people on Twitter.  She's a Slough councillor (Cippenham Meadows ward) and cabinet member, Natasa Pantelic.

Did they miss the Greens announcing they would stand a candidate?

[CumbrianLefty]

Some online chatter that an "interesting" poll for Chesham & Amersham could be in the offing.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Tories should have thought outside the box and run Paul Halloran.  Alas.  At least our candidate is semi-local.

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

Quite possibly might have lost as many votes as he gained.

Galloway appears to be sticking his oar in regarding this one, btw.

[CumbrianLefty]

To which the obvious retort is - it didn't hurt them in Hartlepool.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour maybe just needs to make people aware he voted Tory in the recent Holyrood elections.

[CumbrianLefty]

Would be interested to know people's early thoughts/predictions on this

Nominating Cox's sister was the right move for Labour here. B&S seems to be a better fit for Labour's current coalition than Hartlepool too. I'd be surprised if Labour lose here. If they go then Starmer is done.

Who replace him that case any leavers???

A pure leaver I think would be unlikely. More likely is someone with a more "nuanced" position ala Nandy. But I struggle to see Rayner not winning the nomination if Starmer's leadership proves untenable.

During his actual leadership Starmer has already shifted Labour a lot on Brexit, he doesn't even want to renegotiate the Brexit deal. Given how much complaining there has been from Remainers about this, the more likely alternative is that a new Labour leader starts attacking the Brexit deal more, when it is likely in Labour's interests to move on.

But that's partly down to Starmer being seen by many (not entirely fairly, but that's the nature of the beast) as an "ultra-remainer" prior to the last GE. Another hypothetical leader such as Burnham or Nandy wouldn't have this baggage, so might actually be able to critique the Brexit outcomes better.

(btw I remain doubtful that Rayner actually wants the job, her not standing last year was no accident)

[CumbrianLefty]

Halloran as Reform Party candidate (they haven't announced anyone yet) is the persistent rumour.

Tbh not sure if Galloway counts as "far left" these days either.....

[CumbrianLefty]

I also note no sign of the Leftie S***posters Internet Meme Party after their Hartlepool flop.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunday Times has an article claiming that Galloway is basically going to take the entire ‘muslim’ (their words) vote and doom Labour

It really does have the whiff of an uncritical pro-GG puff piece.

Then again, after Hartlepool it makes some sense for Labour people to fear the worst.

[CumbrianLefty]

Thing about Hartlepool is, the original (49-42 Tory lead) byelection poll was probably pretty accurate at the time - when the campaign was just getting under way.

A good effort from Labour might still have turned that sort of margin around, instead we got what was maybe their most maladroit byelection offering since Crewe and Nantwich in 2008.

This one is likely to be close enough for a good campaign to make a difference.

Which is both an opportunity and warning for Labour.

(btw I'm not sure that the margin in B&S will resonate either, all that will matter is the result. Even a narrow defeat would put Starmer's leadership into possibly terminal crisis - but the obverse of that is a razor-thin hold could, likely successfully, be spun by his people as a "turning of the tide")