Ohio redistricting thread

[Brittain33]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

[Brittain33]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

Oh, I just noticed that *SIX* of the Republican districts are R+5 or less. This is a dummymander that would collapse in a 2020-like environment. It’s beyond hubris to think you can drown Akron, Youngstown, and Toledo in Republican districts based on the 2016 results.

[Brittain33]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

Oh, I just noticed that *SIX* of the Republican districts are R+5 or less. This is a dummymander that would collapse in a 2020-like environment.

lol, R+5 in Ohio outside of Columbus or Cleveland is double digit Trump like Ohio 14th. This might backfire with the suburban Cleveland district a bit but everything else is Safe R.

You can’t anchor a district in Toledo or Akron and make it safe R. Besides, isn’t PVI based on the national results, not state results? R+4 on national results is a seat Biden’s probably going to win this year.

(EDIT) I checked the DRA link. That Toledo district is R+4 which means it just barely went to Trump. This is a dummymander, end of story.

[Brittain33]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

Oh, I just noticed that *SIX* of the Republican districts are R+5 or less. This is a dummymander that would collapse in a 2020-like environment.

lol, R+5 in Ohio outside of Columbus or Cleveland is double digit Trump like Ohio 14th. This might backfire with the suburban Cleveland district a bit but everything else is Safe R.

You can’t anchor a district in Toledo or Akron and make it safe R. Besides, isn’t PVI based on the national results, not state results? R+4 on national results is a seat Biden’s probably going to win this year.

(EDIT) I checked the DRA link. That Toledo district is R+4 which means it just barely went to Trump. This is a dummymander, end of story.

R+4 literally means combined PVI of 2016 and 2012. Which means 2012 numbers are still included lol. The Toledo district is literally trump +11 if you trace it on districtr
https://twitter.com/cacameronGOP/status/1282036322824118272

And the Cincinatti seat isn't even a dummymander even if it flips because that seat that doesn't affect any other seats besides Ohio 1st.

Ok, I’m corrected about Trump’s results in 2016, but what that means it went Democratic by a decent margin in 2012, and I know that part of Ohio went big for Obama in 2008. If Ohio swings back to parity as polls show districts like that are going to swing more than average for the state. I’d love to see the Sherrod Brown numbers for these districts.

[Brittain33]

I guess we’ll see this fall. If Trump wins Ohio by 2 or more points I’ll accept the shift is long term.

[Brittain33]

What was the last court appearance for, then, if not arguments?