Ohio redistricting thread

[Torie]

Well, it turned out the algorithm had some programing errors, but in the end there was great rejoicing, as it made the map even more wonderful, including that OH-04 is almost perfect in population without another county cut. Notice too that Jim Jordon not only now lives in his district, but also that the district has almost no Democrats, so thus unleashed, Jim can be Jim without having to endure the stress of filtering himself.

In all events, be sure to savor that each and every MSA in the state is now both properly covered and nested, with the exception of the Youngstown one, where the real estate shortage dictated that Trumbull be detached from Mahoning (be sure not to miss how clean the detachment was however, almost bloodless), as well as the glorious accomplishment that the Akron MSA is now given the respect it deserves at last, as opposed to being some sliced and diced suburban appendage of Cleveland. I expect something soon there will be named in my honor, perhaps one of the trails in the Cuyahoga National Park, that the pack so very much enjoyed between hospital visits.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbb60b9-e614-4b79-9e7f-42bbf59fc68c

[Torie]

Sorry you took it that way. I deleted all references to you.

[Torie]

Here is a bit less compact looking alternative for the Columbus MSA that nevertheless scores the same per the algorithm (erosity is measured by state highway cuts between county seats) that makes OH-15 more competitive. So it would prevail given that it makes the map more proportional. Even though I love it so, "compacting looking" is not a thing in the algorithm. It also just so happens to cause all of Columbus to be in just two CD's rather than 3 (well not quite all, still 11K short, unless one allows CD's to be non contiguous to the extent the precincts are not contiguous, which I did on the map itself, and that works - barely - no wait, still 2 precincts short).

[Torie]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

[Torie]

Here is an OH map drawn as best I can to hew to the Muon2 rules. Those rules in part are driven by covering and nesting of CD’s in recognized multi-county metro areas. Sometimes when they change, it changes the map such as when the Canton metro area added Carroll County as well as its home county of Stark to it. That increased the value of keeping Stark whole and in the same CD as Carroll. The only metro area that does not get the maximum score is Youngstown, which had to be split. Something had to be split given the traffic jam in the NE corner of the state between the Cleveland, Akron, Canton and Youngstown metro areas.

I doubt the Pubs will be this generous, but maybe.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fd39f645-37d7-4cf0-bf46-59f1e1bfba73

[Torie]

I drew it based on an algorithm, which except as a tie breaker, ignores partisan effects. You can characterize it as you like, and opine that the real line drawers have their own priorities, and that is fine. My "generous" comment was based on what the Pubs would think, not what you would think.

What I was doing was an exercise that because based on neutral rules, that make sense, it becomes harder to characterize as an unfairly partisan based on partisan motives. Arguing what is partisan or unfair in the abstract is something I just do not do anymore. I like to draw maps based on exogenous neutral rules and see how they play out, and how they will fly in court, or should.

The partisan lean image was wrong because it used a composite number rather than the 2020 Trump number. And thus the Dems are on the cusp of 2 Columbus area CD's in any event.

If you want to draw a map as to what you think the Pubs will do with a friendly court go for it.

[Torie]

I drew it based on an algorithm, which except as a tie breaker, ignores partisan effects. You can characterize it as you like, and opine that the real line drawers have their own priorities, and that is fine. My "generous" comment was based on what the Pubs would think, not what you would think.

What I was doing was an exercise that because based on neutral rules, that make sense, it becomes harder to characterize as an unfairly partisan based on partisan motives. Arguing what is partisan or unfair in the abstract is something I just do not do anymore. I like to draw maps based on exogenous neutral rules and see how they play out, and how they will fly in court, or should.

The partisan lean image was wrong because it used a composite number rather than the 2020 Trump number. And thus the Dems are on the cusp of 2 Columbus area CD's in any event.

If you want to draw a map as to what you think the Pubs will do with a friendly court go for it.

I would draw one, but sadly Dave’s redistricting app and my computer don’t see eye to eye so all I can do is comment on other people’s maps.  It is very frustrating

Re: Franklin County: surely community of interest is a vital part of any neutral redistricting principles?

Also, I think you double-bunked Balderson and Johnson as well. 

The law actually requires that as much as Columbus as possible be in one CD. So it is, with almost all of the balance in another CD. The map nests two CD’s in the Columbus metro area and the third covers the the balance, while minimizing the erosity. The algorithm was developed  years ago and not reversed engineered. As it turns out the huge swing to the Dems in the high income Columbus suburbs has made the partisan difference rather small with the Dems getting their two seats rather soon.

Of course the Pubs won’t be going there. The Dems will be shut out. The exercise was about drawing a map that is bullet proof legally in my view.

[Torie]

Here is a map that puts most of Latta's precious Wood County into OH-05. It does not change the partisan balance at all from my previous "fair and balanced" map that got your blood to run so hot.  The thing is, is that Wood is not all that Pub.If Latta wants it, he can have it. In a neutral metrics map it is part of the Toledo metro and should stay with it, but MSA integrity is Greek to the rubes who did not even master Latin because they didn't get into Harvard or something.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3f10b8c8-e4fa-45ba-b016-2aa1079643ca

[Torie]

Here is a map that puts most of Latta's precious Wood County into OH-05. It does not change the partisan balance at all from my previous "fair and balanced" map that got your blood to run so hot.  The thing is, is that Wood is not all that Pub.If Latta wants it, he can have it. In a neutral metrics map it is part of the Toledo metro and should stay with it, but MSA integrity is Greek to the rubes who did not even master Latin because they didn't get into Harvard or something.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3f10b8c8-e4fa-45ba-b016-2aa1079643ca

My critiques were in two categories: 1) things I care about that the legislature and Courts won’t (fair map issues like the Franklin County situation) and 2) things Republicans will care about.  You still double-bunked Balderson and Johnson, Turner and Davidson (or depending on where the latter runs, Davidson and Jordan).  You did address the Latta issue though and as you say, Wood County isn’t some blood-red Republican stronghold.

It is almost as if it were not legal for a rep to live outside their district.  In NYS, at the rate things are going, it will be an oddity if a rep does live in their district. 

[Torie]

Not as much as Boehner would. 😝

[Torie]

Jim Jordan has found a home, and there was great rejoicing. Badger will be the next Dem nominee to run against him, and the debates between there will become the stuff of legend. It may well be that just as was the case with Buckley and Vidal, prudence will dictate that they will need to debate from separate rooms. Meanwhile, map junkies will be amazed that the array of OH-03, OH-12, and OH-15 come within 99 people of a perfect county fit, while seamlessly nesting and covering the Columbus MSA.

Mr. X immediately files a lawsuit to make Jordan’s district more Dem, and is sanctioned by the Ohio Supremes for his hubris upon motion, by yes, you guessed it, Jim Jordan, thereby causing his curriculum vitae to be further enhanced by the twin titles of legislative and judicial terrorist (Trump of course retaining his iron grip on the executive terrorist title).



https://davesredistricting.org/join/3f10b8c8-e4fa-45ba-b016-2aa1079643ca

[Torie]

The perfect is the enemy of the good.  

He can carpetbag to OH-15 in any event. Much of his district is already in it. Or OH-06, and Johnson can move to the northern part of his existing district.

[Torie]

The perfect is the enemy of the good.  

He can carpetbag to OH-15 in any event. Much of his district is already in it. Or OH-06, and Johnson can move to the northern part of his existing district.

Johnson lives way down in Marietta and represents much of OH-6 already, he ain’t moving.  And if we say OH-15 belongs to Balderson then you’ve drawn out Carey who has even more pull than Balderson.

I’m already assuming Davidson and Weinstrup are fine carpetbagging in your latest map, lest you think I am utterly without mercy

OH-13 lacks representation, and Zanesville is not all that different from Youngstown and environs is it (e.g. no gay pride parades)? What we cannot do is mess with the MSA's! That is the constraint.

[Torie]

In other news, this iteration is quite an effective Pubmander while hewing to all the right metrics, and would score very high under the Muon2 rules. Pity that apparently both the Pubs (at least some of the Pub politicians) and Mr. X would hate it.     One would think making Jim Jordan sweat like a pig hog would make it all worth it, but probably not. So sad. It's really quite fabulously gorgeous.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/247a02d0-0668-485c-904f-985a27ed4192

[Torie]

So what do we think will happen with Huffman v. Neiman? It was GVR'd in light of Moore v. Harper, but it would seem that that decision only further confirms that OHSC did, in fact, have the authority to strike down Ohio congressional districts as partisan gerrymanders. Will it matter?

Only the extreme interpretation of SLT would have reversed the Ohio S. Ct. ruling, which nobody endorsed. That is because the Ohio Constitution actually has language that proscribes unduly favoring one party, just like NYS. So the ruling is alive and well, albeit toothless apparently.

A new map will probably be drawn, which the now more Pub friendly court will find does not unduly favor one party. Just how hackish that decision will be depends on what the map looks like. If it both does now follow neutral redistricting principles and screws the Dems, and the S. Ct. upholds it, that will be very hackish.

[Torie]

So what do we think will happen with Huffman v. Neiman? It was GVR'd in light of Moore v. Harper, but it would seem that that decision only further confirms that OHSC did, in fact, have the authority to strike down Ohio congressional districts as partisan gerrymanders. Will it matter?

Only the extreme interpretation of SLT would have reversed the Ohio S. Ct. ruling, which nobody endorsed. That is because the Ohio Constitution actually has language that proscribes unduly favoring one party, just like NYS. So the ruling is alive and well, albeit toothless apparently.

A new map will probably be drawn, which the now more Pub friendly court will find does not unduly favor one party. Just how hackish that decision will be depends on what the map looks like. If it both does now follow neutral redistricting principles and screws the Dems, and the S. Ct. upholds it, that will be very hackish.

The OHSC can just reverse the ruling on the same ground the North Carolina court did which would reinstate the existing map.

They could, but the Pubs probably want more (they were restrained by the "Rino" judge now emeritus and pulling out weeds in her rose garden), so a new map is more probable. The issue now is whether the new map is a pig or a hog. Ohio and NC are the great equalizers to reverses elsewhere for the Pubs. Line drawing is going to get worse before it gets better. It's war out there.

[Torie]

So what do we think will happen with Huffman v. Neiman? It was GVR'd in light of Moore v. Harper, but it would seem that that decision only further confirms that OHSC did, in fact, have the authority to strike down Ohio congressional districts as partisan gerrymanders. Will it matter?

Only the extreme interpretation of SLT would have reversed the Ohio S. Ct. ruling, which nobody endorsed. That is because the Ohio Constitution actually has language that proscribes unduly favoring one party, just like NYS. So the ruling is alive and well, albeit toothless apparently.

A new map will probably be drawn, which the now more Pub friendly court will find does not unduly favor one party. Just how hackish that decision will be depends on what the map looks like. If it both does now follow neutral redistricting principles and screws the Dems, and the S. Ct. upholds it, that will be very hackish.

The OHSC can just reverse the ruling on the same ground the North Carolina court did which would reinstate the existing map.

They could, but the Pubs probably want more (they were restrained by the "Rino" judge now emeritus and pulling out weeds in her rose garden), so a new map is more probable. The issue now is whether the new map is a pig or a hog. Ohio and NC are the great equalizers to reverses elsewhere for the Pubs. Line drawing is going to get worse before it gets better. It's war out there.

How exactly are Republicans going to handle the ruling? Ruling in favor of the Republicans overturns the ruling and reinstates the current map. Ruling in favor of the Democrats would order a redraw. Do they hackishly side with the Democrats so that a redraw can happen, or do they side with the GOP in a way that allows a redraw anyway? Or do they just reinstate the current map?

They stall until the Pubs pass a new map, mooting the prior case.

[Torie]

These two maps score identically based on the algorithm I use, and have the same partisan division of the spoils. Which do you like better and why, the top or the bottom?



The version below in a most aesthetic and seamless manner causes OH-08 to cease to be competitive, but it fails for two reasons: 1) it has one extra county road cut between county seats (you have to go through OH-08 on the main highway to get from Akron in OH-07 to Cleveland in OH-11 in this version, while you don’t in the prior versions), and 2) even if the maps scored the same, when maps otherwise score identically, the one with the most partisan proportionality based on statewide percentages wins, and moving OH-08 from competitive to safe Pub is going in the “wrong” direction on that. So, the algorithm works well here.

[Torie]

In other news, this iteration is quite an effective Pubmander while hewing to all the right metrics, and would score very high under the Muon2 rules. Pity that apparently both the Pubs (at least some of the Pub politicians) and Mr. X would hate it.     One would think making Jim Jordan sweat like a pig hog would make it all worth it, but probably not. So sad. It's really quite fabulously gorgeous.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/247a02d0-0668-485c-904f-985a27ed4192

I like the map, but tbh that northeast OH config is pretty favorable to Dems; it keeps both OH-09 and OH-13 (renamed as OH-07 on your map) as competitive seats, in addition to creating 2 new competitive districts in Northeast OH (OH-08 and OH-14). I guess one could argue that trends in Northeast Ohio have generally been poor for Democrats, and that in time, all OH-07, OH-08, OH-09, and OH-14 will all become strongly R-leaning.

I would also be curious how much black population OH-14 takes from OH-11 here? Taking too many blacks out of OH-11 could make it less functional and be a VRA and/or 14th amendment violation.

I'm personally curious if the OH GOP would be willing to split Franklin County 3-ways? Both their original map and replacement map only split the County between 2 districts; one being the Dem pack nested entirely within the County and the other pairing the rest of the County with rurals. While you can make a decently R-leaning seat by pairing the rest of the County with deep red rurals, the only way to make a truly safe map would be to crack the County 3-ways.

Ofc the other big question is are Rs willing to just cede a Cinci seat to Dems at this point?

This exercise was about drawing the highest scoring map per the Muon2 rules, and see what one got. I think I did that. The maps are the highest scoring. Obviously, good looking maps can be drawn that zero out all the competitive districts, and leash the Dems to their three inner city cores.

Gingles is not in play. It's not possible to draw a Gingles CD anymore, and beyond that enough whites will vote for a black so the VRA does not apply anyway. Even if it did, OH-11 is black performing. A majority of Dem primary voters are Dem, and the whites in Shaker Heights, downtown, and around Case Western are used to voting for blacks.

Mr. X hates my Columbus act, but the law importunes to keep as much of Columbus in one CD, and I did that. It also minimizes the erosity, and within 99 residents, has a perfect nesting of all three CD's. Having either OH-12 or OH-15 take in all of the balance of Franklin, makes for an awkward map.

As to your map below, Mr. X thinks it will be Pub incumbent driven, and surely you can Pub up OH-13 in an aesthetic manner. What you did with OH-01 will test the limits of how hack the court will be, and the Pubs would be fools to go there. It poisons the whole map. What would be smart is screwing the Dems while having talking points that the screw was mere collateral damage for a map that accomplished other worthy goals. There was no bad intent.

You might provide a link to your map so that others can explore and mess with it.



Here is my Pub shut out map, ceding OH-01, that follows some of your cut throat tactics, that still has talking points to offer up to the Court as fig leaves for them to hide behind, no matter how disingenuous.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b8f269b7-08eb-4491-81af-b00662d1667f



Here is another iteration.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f8849bbb-4930-4afa-adb7-32a60238387d