Utah 2006: Hatch vs. Matheson

[Yates]

I recall a poll in late 2005 in which 48% of Utahns favored a new Senator, while only 45% were satisfied with Orrin Hatch.  I forget the exact wording of the poll question.

Had Jim Matheson run, how successful would he have been?

[Verily]

54-44 Hatch.

[Yates]

I generally agree with that assessment.

[© tweed]

I'd obviously have voted for Hatch like any decent human being.

[RBH]

Hatch 50
Matheson 43
Constitution Party 4
Personal Choice 2
Libertarian 1

[Adlai Stevenson]

I'm going to predict that Matheson actually wins very narrowly, 48%-47%.  Hatch only won 62% versus 31% for the Democrat; he somewhat underperformed for Utah.  Does anyone else think Matheson will one day be elected a Senator or possibly more likely Governor?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Does anyone else think Matheson will one day be elected a Senator or possibly more likely Governor?

I like Matheson's chances to be a governor someday but not senator.  I think in this scenario Hatch wins 55-41

[Rob]

48%-47%.  Hatch only won 62% versus 31% for the Democrat; he somewhat underperformed for Utah. 

Not really; Democratic presidential nominees and statewide candidates can normally crack 30 percent and take a county or two. But for whatever reasons, Gore and Kerry underperformed.

[True Democrat]

57-40

[Adlai Stevenson]

48%-47%.  Hatch only won 62% versus 31% for the Democrat; he somewhat underperformed for Utah.

Not really; Democratic presidential nominees and statewide candidates can normally crack 30 percent and take a county or two. But for whatever reasons, Gore and Kerry underperformed.

I was referring to Hatch? 

[Rob]

... yeah, and my point is that if you take the Democratic percentage into account, Hatch's performance wasn't unusually poor. Give him the far-right vote that went for the Constitution candidate, and he wins 66-31. That's virtually identical to his (and George W. Bush's) 2000 margin.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Still it would have been interesting if he had faced a challenge; either in the primary or the general.  There seems to be some sentiment for change or an anti-Hatch movement in Utah; some of it in the Republican Party.

[Yates]

Perhaps if Steve Urquhart continued his primary challenge against Hatch, Matheson would have been able to win.

[Rob]

Well, the problem is that most of this discontent comes from the right. People that dislike Hatch because he's too "liberal" aren't going to support a Democrat, even one as conservative as Matheson.  

He would have cracked 40 percent, but no Democrat will come close to winning in Utah. The Democrats ran a popular, right-leaning congressman in 1992. He was defeated 55-41 by a political novice named Bob Bennett.

[AndrewTX]

54-44 Hatch.