French presidential election, 2022

[Tirnam]

More details on the Ipsos/Cevipof poll

On Macron
- 38% have a positive view of his presidency
- 23% like him and his policies, 16% like him but dislike his policies, 12% dislike him but like his policies, 49% dislike him and his policies

Judgment on the candidates's personalities
3 candidates have a strong base : Macron, Le Pen and Mélenchon. The others have a hard time to seduce even among their party's base. Bertrand is in the middle.
But overall the candidates are not well liked.

Would ... do better than Macron?
Le Pen - Better 28%, Same 25%, Worse 47%
Bertrand - Better 21%, Same 57%, Worse 22%
Mélenchon - Better 16%, Same 29%, Worse 55%
Jadot - Better 14%, Same 43%, Worse 43%
Hidalgo - Better 14%, Same 41%, Worse 45%

[Tirnam]

More details on the Ipsos/Cevipof poll

On Macron
- 38% have a positive view of his presidency
- 23% like him and his policies, 16% like him but dislike his policies, 12% dislike him but like his policies, 49% dislike him and his policies

Judgment on the candidates's personalities
3 candidates have a strong base : Macron, Le Pen and Mélenchon. The others have a hard time to seduce even among their party's base. Bertrand is in the middle.
But overall the candidates are not well liked.

Would ... do better than Macron?
Le Pen - Better 28%, Same 25%, Worse 47%
Bertrand - Better 21%, Same 57%, Worse 22%
Mélenchon - Better 16%, Same 29%, Worse 55%
Jadot - Better 14%, Same 43%, Worse 43%
Hidalgo - Better 14%, Same 41%, Worse 45%

Mélenchon really is disliked by the rest of the electorate; more than Le Pen. Striking.

He was quite popular during the 2017 campaign (56% favorable rating in April 2017) but he fell quite rapidly after the election, as he was a little bit of a sore loser (34% favorable in July 2017) and his reaction to the police raid on his party's HQ in October 2018 was a low point from which he didn't recover.
He is very good at campaigning but the challenge will be much harder this time: before 2018 he was almost always below 60% of unfavorable opinions, since 2018 he is at 70% unfavorable.

[Tirnam]

A few polls after the regional elections (Harris, Ipsos and OpinionWay were done between the first and the second round, Elabe after the second round).

Harris
Macron: 25-28%
Le Pen: 26-28%
Right: 16% for Bertrand, 10% for Pécresse and Wauquiez
Mélenchon: 10%
Jadot: 7-8%
Hidalgo: 6-7%

Ipsos
Macron: 24-27%
Le Pen: 24-26%
Right: 18% for Bertrand, 13% for Pécresse and Wauquiez
Jadot: 10%
Hidalgo: 8-9%
Mélenchon: 7%

OpinionWay
Macron: 26-31%
Le Pen: 24-25%
Right: 20% for Bertrand, 13% for Pécresse and 12% for Wauquiez
Mélenchon: 9-10%
Jadot: 8-9%
Hidalgo: 7%

Elabe
Macron: 29-31%
Le Pen: 23-25%
Right: 14% for Bertrand, 12% for Wauquiez, 11% for Pécresse
Mélenchon: 9-10%
Jadot: 6-7%
Hidalgo: 4-5%

For the second round, against Le Pen, Macron is at 55% with Harris, 60% with Elabe.

[Tirnam]

The constitutionnal council has published the first wave of nominations, only 313 today

MACRON Emmanuel 105   
HIDALGO Anne 48
PÉCRESSE Valérie 34
ROUSSEL Fabien 30
LASSALLE Jean 15
MÉLENCHON Jean-Luc 14
ZEMMOUR Éric 14
ARTHAUD Nathalie 12
JADOT Yannick 11
ASSELINEAU François 10
DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicola 10
POUTOU Philippe 4
LE PEN Marine 2
THOUY Hélène 2
KAZIB Anasse 1
KUZMANOVIC Georges 1

[Tirnam]

Macron has reached the 500 nominations to be candidate.

Macron : 529

Pécresse : 324
Hidalgo : 266
Roussel : 159
Arthaud : 138
Lassalle : 124
Mélenchon : 100
Jadot : 80
Dupont-Aignan : 77
Zemmour : 58
Asselineau : 56
Poutou : 54
Le Pen : 35
Taubira : 8

https://presidentielle2022.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/les-parrainages/parrainages-valides-par-candidat.html