Pbrower and OC in a serious contest on who can out stupid the other. Could Pbrower really be bested by a robot? Stay tuned.
Do you understand what a 28% approval rating really means for an incumbent Gobernor or Senator? Even if it is an outlier (which is possible) it is inconsistent with "likely to win re-election". That is almost Corbett '14 territory.
What is possible with such a low approval rating for an incumbent ?
1. He could be enmeshed in a scandal.
2. He could be a bad ideological fit for his state.
3. He might be failing at the job.
4. The political winds are changing, and not to his benefit.
We can rule out #1 -- scandal.
#2 -- he barely won during the Tea Party wave in 2010, and with a different electorate less amenable to the Hard Right, he loses. Pennsylvania is slightly-D, so a Republican has to be very good to get re-elected.
#3 -- he has wisely avoided the limelight, but it is questionable that he has done anything for Pennsylvania. It may be to his credit that he has stayed away from the pork barrel -- but it is bad for political survival.
#4 -- possible, but I can't see the evidence for it to my satisfaction yet.
An earlier PPP poll (late November) showed him with a 36% approval rating, which is not quite so abysmal -- but it is poor.
He has inordinate work to get re-elected. Just about everything has to go right for him to get re-elected. He will need
(1) an unusually-weak opponent
(2) a political climate much like 2010 or 2016, which is asking for much
(3) successful legislation with his name on it
(4) a major scandal involving the Democratic Party (especially the President)
(5) copious funding of his electoral campaign
Putting money on the Toomey campaign could quickly become a waste of money, and it would be perceived as such quickly. The Republicans have 23 other incumbent Senators to defend, and he will be among the three with races that they can most afford to lose. They are not going to risk the re-election of Kelly Ayotte to protect Pat Toomey, especially if they see Senators Kirk of Illinois and Johnson of Wisconsin going down to defeat.