Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

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There's no evidence to support the idea that Moore will be expelled. Anyone who uses that as a justification to vote Moore is either delusional, hasn't paid any attention, or just using that as an excuse because they're embarrassed to vote for a molester.

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Also 40 pro-choice/54 anti-abortion makes more sense.

But not that much more, it's still much higher than I'd expect from Alabama.

Pretty consistent with abortion bans shockingly failing last decade at the ballot in South Dakota and Mississippi

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Moore's lead right at the callable line. About 90% confidence level now.

Jones max still at 50.5 percent here.

Nobody cares about your homecooked model.

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Should we be concerned that there are no votes in from Shelby County yet?

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My made up model says Jones 110% to win!!!!1

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NYT coming back to Jones!

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My model assumes that the swing vote is no greater than 2/x where x is the total number of votes counted. I've tested it for countless elections, and it's only once been wrong - the PA election this year calling against Trump.

So in this example, 65 percent of the vote is in.

So 2/65 = 3.07. That added to Jones gives us 45.3 + 3.07 = 48

This is under 50 percent so Jones cannot catch Roy Moore.

Within 2% I won't call until 90 percent is in. The model is less good with really close elections.

I also give it an extra percent before I call the election - a 'fudge factor' if you will so that takes care of the 1% off calls, as in PA for Clinton. I also try to call the 'downswings'. Has to have two sections above the callable point.

At 1/x the candidate has a 'statistical lead' meaning that the other candidate is officially behind.

Wow, it really is just something you made up rather than a statistical analysis of precinct results. I (thought I) was just jerking your chain.

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CNN says Jones won't take office until January.

I thought special election winners took office immediately?