WV-03: Williams out

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Someone needs to get him some fundraising. He can seriously put this seat into play.

You don't need too much cash to run in WV-03 tbh but I hope he's seeking Our Revolution/PCCC endorsement. I don't think Bernie will endorse him due to fear of backlash since he supported Trump in 2016 because apparently anyone who supports Trump is automatically bad and the Democrats shouldn't appeal to Trump voters that in the past have been open to the right Democrat.

This is almost certainly getting him frozen out of most/all national money, tbh. And he's at war with the Manchin network, so he's likely to get any in state money as well.

Which sucks, because:

Ojeda is very high energy.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

But Justice was the king of the DINOs

Point is he ran as a Democrat. While WV does have a strong partisan lean on the presidential level, the parties there aren't that strong in general.  People in southern West Virginia especially, are more likely to vote Democrat down ballot then a lot of other places. This district is gonna be Joe Manchin's best district in 2018 for that matter. In a 10% win statewide, I could see Manchin winning this district by like 15 points. If there are that many voters willing to support Joe Manchin then I don't think it's unreasonable to imagine Ojeda having a shot in this district, especially given how strong a candidate he is.

Which incidentally is one of the reasons that Manchin should suck it up and send some money Ojeda’s way. Hav No a strong congressional campaign in this district will only benefit him.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

But Justice was the king of the DINOs

Point is he ran as a Democrat. While WV does have a strong partisan lean on the presidential level, the parties there aren't that strong in general.  People in southern West Virginia especially, are more likely to vote Democrat down ballot then a lot of other places. This district is gonna be Joe Manchin's best district in 2018 for that matter. In a 10% win statewide, I could see Manchin winning this district by like 15 points. If there are that many voters willing to support Joe Manchin then I don't think it's unreasonable to imagine Ojeda having a shot in this district, especially given how strong a candidate he is.

Which incidentally is one of the reasons that Manchin should suck it up and send some money Ojeda’s way. Hav No a strong congressional campaign in this district will only benefit him.

No way. Manchin should not be throwing money away at pointless stuff like that.

I’m not sure you understand how 1) fundraising works or 2) how the downticket boosts top of ticket turnout.