So what happens if it's voted down in the House? Do we get a Plan B on health reform, or does the GOP simply move on to some other issue?
Their entire agenda gets f'ed. They were planning on tackling tax reforms, an equally contentious issue, after their healthcare bill, and the current plan on tackling that is contingent upon their Obamacare replacement successfully being passed through budget reconciliation.
My understanding is that they can still do tax reform without this, except that any tax cuts passed through reconciliation would have to be temporary, with a 10 year time horizon. Not their preferred course, but I'm guessing that they'll go for temporary tax cuts rather than no tax cuts.