It's usually a bad idea to question shonky margins in crosstabs, although the lack of weighting by education is a more serious concern.
Lean D -> Tilt D, but deep down we all know this is an immutably tilt R state.
Changing rating because of one poll is ridiculous. As GeorgiaModerate rightly pointed out, if Biden actually has a modest lead here, a tie and polls with larger leads are both to be expected. But if this is the low end of his range and the best Trump can get, Biden is still clearly favored.
It's not ridiculous with a poll of this quality and this close to election day (negative marks for not weighting by education, but otherwise fine). FL was a weak lean D in my book and now it is a strong tilt D.
1. The crosstabs and weighting make the poll’s quality suspect. Even quality pollsters sometimes have outliers and just bad polls.
2. Because of the fact that even quality pollsters are not infallible, and also for the reasons I stated which you completely failed to address (expected range, margin of error, etc.), it is ALWAYS wrong to overreact to ANY one poll from ANY pollster. Period. Unless and until more polls come out that in aggregate suggest Biden’s overall lead has declined here — hell, when was the last time Trump even led here, which he definitely would in some if this race was truly this close? — changing your overall view of the state of the race is a foolish, ridiculous, irrational kneejerk reaction. End of story.
