FL-NBC/Marist: TIE

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Enjoy the retirement home Joe!

Biden can easily win the election without carrying Florida lol.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's usually a bad idea to question shonky margins in crosstabs, although the lack of weighting by education is a more serious concern.

Lean D -> Tilt D, but deep down we all know this is an immutably tilt R state.

Changing rating because of one poll is ridiculous. As GeorgiaModerate rightly pointed out, if Biden actually has a modest lead here, a tie and polls with larger leads are both to be expected. But if this is the low end of his range and the best Trump can get, Biden is still clearly favored.

It's not ridiculous with a poll of this quality and this close to election day (negative marks for not weighting by education, but otherwise fine). FL was a weak lean D in my book and now it is a strong tilt D.

1. The crosstabs and weighting make the poll’s quality suspect. Even quality pollsters sometimes have outliers and just bad polls.

2. Because of the fact that even quality pollsters are not infallible, and also for the reasons I stated which you completely failed to address (expected range, margin of error, etc.), it is ALWAYS wrong to overreact to ANY one poll from ANY pollster. Period. Unless and until more polls come out that in aggregate suggest Biden’s overall lead has declined here — hell, when was the last time Trump even led here, which he definitely would in some if this race was truly this close? — changing your overall view of the state of the race is a foolish, ridiculous, irrational kneejerk reaction. End of story.

Of course we shouldn’t overreact to any one poll.

But this is far from the only poll showing Biden badly underperforming among Latinos, especially in Florida.  He was also losing Latinos in the Q poll of Florida last week, and the Miami-Dade poll also published today shows him running 13 points behind Hillary.

It’s worth remembering that Florida was one of the few states to buck the Democratic tide in 2018, and one of the biggest culprits was the perception that Bill Nelson was out of touch with Latinos.

And it’s also blatantly obvious that Biden is almost entirely ignoring immigration as an issue in his campaign.  He seems determined to repeat Nelson’s mistakes.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Atlas after seeing one poll: "Eh, it's just one poll. Throw it in the average"


Also Atlas after seeing one poll:

FL is lean R.

Cubans have had enough BLM terror.

Just throw the whole state away, for the love of God

Ugh...worst poll for Biden in months IMO.

Lean R state remains Lean R...

Forget Puerto Rico. Can we give FL back to Spain free of charge?

Florida gonna Florida.

Of course we shouldn’t overreact to any one poll...

[Buzz]

Y’all keep saying “one” poll.  We just had a Q poll showing him up only 3.  If Quinnipiac only has him up 3, Trump is tied at worst.

[wbrocks67]

The sample for Hispanics was 130. So... yeah.

[MplsDem]

Does anyone know if Marist counts those with 2 year degrees in the "college graduate" category?  Because 42% seems high for FL.

[krb08]

This poll obviously isn't good news for Biden but what is with this forum and overreacting so much? Biden and Trump are tied in a state Trump won and people are acting like the world is ending. Florida is a tossup, we've all known that. Biden is underperforming with Latinos but equally overperforming with seniors, a demographic with much higher turnout. It's one poll showing a close race with two entire months to go.

Calm down. Demographic crosstabs always have small sample sizes and Latinos are notoriously difficult to poll. Even if the crosstabs are accurate, Biden has another path to victory with senior voters. Plus, Harris is visiting Miami on Thursday and her Carribean roots could benefit the campaign there. This isn't even close to over.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They are releasing polls, little by little, they should release all the swing state polls

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Florida is a tossup, we've all known that.

It is certainly not true "we've all known" that Florida is a toss-up.  Even Cook has Florida as Lean Dem right now.
  
If Biden is tied in Florida at the same time as he is up 8 nationally, there is something seriously wrong with his campaign there, and it appears more generally something seriously wrong with his appeal toward Latinos.

Biden's chances in the 538 projection have fallen 12 points in Florida in the past two weeks, while remaining steady nationally and rising in several other swing states.  His messaging and optics are largely ignoring Latinos and the issues most important to them, and it is showing.

[krb08]

Florida is a tossup, we've all known that.

It is certainly not true "we've all known" that Florida is a toss-up.  Even Cook has Florida as Lean Dem right now.
 
If Biden is tied in Florida at the same time as he is up 8 nationally, there is something seriously wrong with his campaign there, and it appears more generally something seriously wrong with his appeal toward Latinos.

If you didn’t know that it’s a tossup, that makes you misguided, as well as Cook for that Lean D rating. Florida doesn’t respond to the national environment with big swings and it never has. Obama didn’t even win it by 3 in 2008. This freakout over a SINGLE tied poll and its small subsamples is ridiculous, and I stand by that. Especially considering Florida’s history of being decided by <2 point margins.

[Tintrlvr]

The poll has a 47-43 approval rating amongst Latino voters. CIVIQS have it 34-64. It could just be a Trump heavy sample that influences the poll.

It's a common problem in Florida polling to just poll whatever Latino voters you can find, even though Latino voters in Florida (compared to other states) are quite politically diverse, especially on the Cuban-not Cuban axis. If you overpoll Cubans compared to other Latinos (or vice versa, although overpolling Cubans is more common as they are wealthier/older/more established and thus more likely to pick up the phone), you're going to get a really wonky sample. In other states with significant Latino populations, that's much less of an issue as most Latino voter groups vote relatively similarly.

The age breakdowns are just inexcusable.

But I liked my joke of posting the 1996 map.

[Brittain33]

It’s funny how literally one good, credible state poll for Trump a few days after he got pummeled in national polls unleashed an enormous wave of pent-up enthusiasm here. People were really missing a sense of competition in the race!

[President Johnson]

Flawed poll due to reasons already mentioned. Tilt Democratic.

[solidcoalition]

Enjoy the retirement home Joe!

Biden can easily win the election without carrying Florida lol.

Right, but if Trump wins Florida and Pennsylvania...come on man, what are the odds?

[ProudModerate2]

Enjoy the retirement home Joe!

Biden can easily win the election without carrying Florida lol.

Agree.
But Biden should not give-up on FL (or NC).

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It's not healthy that whenever a poll that doesn't show Biden dominating comes out half the forum goes into panic mode and acts as if Trump is leading by double digits while the other half immediately  dismisses the poll because they find something about the sub-samples they don't like.  

Neither of those reactions are particularly relevant.

If you look at the 538 average it's clear that Florida is close at the moment and has been tightening. And we have seen recent evidence that Biden is under-preforming Clinton and Obama ('12) with Cubans in the state. That means the Biden campaign needs to increase its efforts in the state. People in Miami-Dade who voted for Clinton in 2016 can be convinced to vote for Biden in 2020, if you put in the effort instead of panicking or being complacent.  

Thankfully the Biden campaign seem a lot more level-headed than the average Atlas poster. When we got those bad Wisconsin polls they seemed to take those seriously and increased their efforts there while not running for the hills because unbeatable Trump was gonna win again.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Enjoy the retirement home Joe!

Biden can easily win the election without carrying Florida lol.

Agree.
But Biden should not give-up on FL (or NC).

No ones saying he is or will. Hell, isn't Harris in Miami today?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It’s funny how literally one good, credible state poll for Trump a few days after he got pummeled in national polls unleashed an enormous wave of pent-up enthusiasm here. People were really missing a sense of competition in the race!

Between Trump losing in a Carter-esque landslide or a Kerry-esque squeaker, I think Democrats secretly hope for the squeaker

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist thought Gillum was going to win the state by 4, and don’t get me started on Senator Bill Nelson LOL

Because an incorrect poll in a previous election invalidates every future poll by that pollster, right?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Enjoy the retirement home Joe!

Biden can easily win the election without carrying Florida lol.

Agree.
But Biden should not give-up on FL (or NC).

No ones saying he is or will. Hell, isn't Harris in Miami today?

*Thursday.

[Senator Spark]

Those Latino numbers!

[MillennialModerate]

Lol and the collapse begins. Florida is such a joke

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This poll is the first data point since March that makes me genuinely worried that the race is shifting and Biden is in trouble. Tied in FL means Biden is probably up 2-3% nationally and holding together an electoral lead by the skin of his teeth. Hopefully there will be better news.

The possibility of a 300+ EV Biden win that will be decided by midnight seems to be evaporating. My guess at this point is Biden gets 278 EVs and we'll be waiting on results in WI, PA, and AZ into the wee hours.

[Dr. Arch]

This poll is the first data point since March that makes me genuinely worried that the race is shifting and Biden is in trouble. Tied in FL means Biden is probably up 2-3% nationally and holding together an electoral lead by the skin of his teeth. Hopefully there will be better news.

The possibility of a 300+ EV Biden win that will be decided by midnight seems to be evaporating. My guess at this point is Biden gets 278 EVs and we'll be waiting on results in WI, PA, and AZ into the wee hours.

That's not how FL works relative to the nationwide margins.

[wbrocks67]

This poll is the first data point since March that makes me genuinely worried that the race is shifting and Biden is in trouble. Tied in FL means Biden is probably up 2-3% nationally and holding together an electoral lead by the skin of his teeth. Hopefully there will be better news.

The possibility of a 300+ EV Biden win that will be decided by midnight seems to be evaporating. My guess at this point is Biden gets 278 EVs and we'll be waiting on results in WI, PA, and AZ into the wee hours.

This poll literally has the two tied among <45 year olds when HRC won by 16 and Nelson won by 27. I wouldn't be stressing too much about it.