Irish Election Results Thread

[Dan the Roman]

Imagine what would have happened with FPTP. It would be like Canada 1993, even with transferable votes. Actually especially with them.

[Dan the Roman]

Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

If FG take 4 from 5 in Mayo, as seems quite possible, it'll be the first time ever in Ireland a party has taken 4 in a 5-seater.

FF didn't in 1974?  I know they got 2/3 in a bunch of Dublin constituencies where they were expected to get 1/3, and I had assumed that in rural areas 5-seaters were drawn where it was expected FF, then often capable of winning a majority as they did in '74, would get 3/5 instead of 3/4 or 2/3 in 4- or 3-seaters.  I figured if they overperformed in Dublin they might have overperformed in rural 5-seaters given their landslide victory overall in that election.

You mean 1977?

[Dan the Roman]

Fianna Fail seems on track to do a bit better than the exit suggested (Fine Gael & Labour look just about bang-on) - perhaps there was a tiny last-minute rally round them, or, as one commentator suggested earlier, they had those votes all along but people were too embarrassed to tell pollsters they would still vote for Fianna Fail.

I think this was also one explanation offered for the stronger-than-expected Tory vote in 1992.

FG seems to have done some excellent vote management which should make the rally largely moot vis-e-ve the seat predictions. But we will have to wait until tomorrow to see.