Which is more likely to flip? Arizona and Georgia or Iowa and Ohio

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Arizona>Iowa>Georgia>>>>Ohio

This. Georgia (and Texas) will be ahead of Iowa by 2024, however. Right now, I'm thinking there is a >60% chance AZ, PA, WI, and MI vote Dem, which would extend downwards to 45% FL, 40% IA, 35% GA, 25% OH, and 20% TX.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Arizona and Georgia, mostly because of Ohio, but I feel like both, especially Georgia, are overrated as democratic prospects.

Stacey Abrams just lost by 1 point but Georgia is overrated as a Democratic prospect?

My thinking is you can subtract 1 point for candidate quality, 2 for miderm wave, anf add 2 for trends. another for trends, and in 2020 you get a 47-51 Trump victory. Keep this to 2024 and you get a 51-48 Dem Victory (subtracting one for Trump not being on the ballot.) The same math applies to Texas.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Arizona>Iowa>Georgia>>>>Ohio

This. Georgia (and Texas) will be ahead of Iowa by 2024, however. Right now, I'm thinking there is a >60% chance AZ, PA, WI, and MI vote Dem, which would extend downwards to 45% FL, 40% IA, 35% GA, 25% OH, and 20% TX.

If Dems win the Presidency in 2020 with less than 320 EV , TX will take a longer time to flip . Especially if that Dem is Bernie or Warren.


If Dems win the WH in 2020 without OH and TX, TX probably stays solidly GOP in the 2022 midterms and in 2024 probably barely even contest it. TX is not going from Likely R to Tilt D with a Dem in the WH. The most probable scenario is it stays at Likely R in that case.

[TarHeelDem]

The correct answer is North Carolina.

[RaphaelDLG]

Arizona and Georgia, mostly because of Ohio, but I feel like both, especially Georgia, are overrated as democratic prospects.

Stacey Abrams just lost by 1 point but Georgia is overrated as a Democratic prospect?

Call me when we come close to winning something statewide in a non-R pres midterm blue wave year/win something period.

Two years is a short period of time for GA to continue to trend sufficiently, absent Trump getting slaughtered

[pbrower2a]

1. Pennsylvania
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin
4. Iowa
5. Arizona
6. Florida
7. NE-02
8. North Carolina
9. Ohio
10. New Hampshire (D to R)
11. ME-02
12. Texas
13. Nevada (D to R)
14. Montana
15. Minnesota (D to R)
16. Indiana
17. Kansas
18. Missouri


51. Idaho
52. Massachusetts
53. Maryland
54. Wyoming
55. NE-03
56. District of Columbia


 

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

1. Arizona (60% chance of a Democratic victory)
2. Georgia (40%)
3. Iowa (35%)
4. Ohio (25%)

[MT Treasurer]

1. Arizona (60% chance of a Democratic victory)
2. Georgia (40%)
3. Iowa (35%)
4. Ohio (25%)

Oh boy, now you’ve #triggered Atlas.