Turkey referendum, 2017 (user search)
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  Turkey referendum, 2017 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Turkey referendum, 2017  (Read 20316 times)
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 11,882
Spain


« on: April 16, 2017, 08:44:20 AM »

Prediction: 48% yes, 52% no. I honestly think the Hayir camp can win. I believe that people don't react well to a campaign that is too focus on "me or chaos" and in the current Turkey's environment there's probable many Turkish that are afraid to express a support to the No side.

An important thing to add, before the November election in 2015 (when we saw an increase in the AKP support) there was an escalation of tension between the turkish government and the kurdish population that Erdogan used in his favor. The coup was last year but the tension has decreased substantially. I don't think (from what I'm reading) that the conflict with the EU helps Erdogan the same way the Kurdish conflict helped him in 2015.

Very relevant picture:



For those that don't speak Spanish:

Politician: Either us or chaos
Crowd: Chaos! Chaos!
Politician: It's ok, that's us as well

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Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 11,882
Spain


« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2017, 09:39:56 AM »

Wait, it's apparently 17:40 right now in Turkey (at least in Ankara). Why are they counting votes so early? Do polls really close at like 17:00 there?
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Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 11,882
Spain


« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2017, 10:26:48 AM »

I think Istanbul is a good bellweather for this referendum? If no pulls ahead there maybe it has a shot at winning.

Though I'd be surprised if it was 52-48 like Brexit, let alone closer.
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Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 11,882
Spain


« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2017, 10:42:37 AM »

I thought it was the dankest timeline?
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Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 11,882
Spain


« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2017, 12:18:31 PM »

Good to see that our Turks are the 2nd most fanatical in Europe ... Tongue

I'm actually happy to see that only 19% of our Turks support Erdogan. Still 19% too many but not bad.
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