2020 New York Redistricting

[Tintrlvr]

Well, before any maps are finalized at least, I wanted to share my Democratic map of Long Island:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/236eca69-d22c-4260-b0fd-0824d8092483

This is better for Suozzi than the Assembly map (Biden+14) while also pressuring LaLota in a Biden+8 district.

NY-01: Biden+8
NY-02: Trump+15
NY-03: Biden+14
NY-04: Biden+16

[wbrocks67]

Letting Lawler's district go and not make it more Dem would be completely idiotic. Him, Molinaro and Williams should be the top 3 targets out of the gate.

[Dan the Roman]

This map sucks and the Senate/Jefferies needs to fix it.

https://twitter.com/politicswolf/status/1762505742211330211?s=46

This really seems to suggest Democrats are less confident about trends in Long Island and Staten Island and comparatively more optimistic about their chances in the Hudson Valley.

If you look at crossover voting for the past two decades a Presidential+9 LI district tends to vote like a Presidential +2 Hudson Valley one.

[Dan the Roman]

The leaked spin seems to be Democrats are looking to balance NC which means 3-4 gains and they appear to be counting NY03.

I also get the distinct impression that the heavily downstate and NYC congressional delegation is both ideologically and socially a poor match for the Assembly Ds. On the otherhand, the Senate is full of partisans like that.

[GALeftist]

lol they had better not pass this. This would arguably worse than the current map

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Assembly has posted a map. It will be interesting to see if the senate signs on or diverges like it seemingly wants to.


https://newyork.redistrictingandyou.org/?districtType=cd&propA=cong_nyirc_20240215&propB=cong_legamend_20240226&selected=-73.77410380901841,40.98053601355112#%26map=6.86/42.844/-77.03

Changes:

NY-03 withdraws from the south Oyster Bay/Massapequa region and some of those suburbs go in NY-02. NY-03 trades them for Huntingdon and NY-01 picks up the parts NY-02 east of Mastic Beach. Makes the marginal NY-01 go from marginally Biden to marginally Trump.

No changes to most of lower NYC, including not giving Jefferies the Barclay center or his house. Probably ensures his disapproval of this one as well.

NY-16 trades Wakefield for Eastchester and Co-op city. Despite the framing of this last night, this probably marginally hurts Bowman. This requires NY-15 dropping some of the south Bronx to NY-14.

Minor changes to NY-17 in Beekman town in Dutchess.

NY-18 still contains all of Orange unlike he IRC map. It gets the rest of Duchess but loses much of the interior of Ulster compared to both previous plans. This is to keep Ny-19 competitive, but one wonders in Ryan would aprove of the outcome coming from Ulster.

Upstate west of Binghampton is the same as the IRC map. East of it though there are changes. NY-20 compacts in Saratoga to grab Amsterdam. NY-19 now goes into Rensselaer.

Time for the State Senate to kill it with fire!

[Tekken_Guy]

Is there a reason they won’t go for a Hochulmander again after they were so willing to do it last time?

[GALeftist]

NY Dems need to get Latimer tf out of Albany. I’m sorry but your personal congressional ambitions come second to preventing the rise of fascism in this country.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NY Dems need to get Latimer tf out of Albany. I’m sorry but your personal congressional ambitions come second to preventing the rise of fascism in this country.

In what universe is this even remotely Latimer’s fault?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/asinmarx/status/1762538171009569041?s=46

[Arizona Iced Tea]

NY Dems need to get Latimer tf out of Albany. I’m sorry but your personal congressional ambitions come second to preventing the rise of fascism in this country.

Dems call gerrymandering undemocratic and then do it anyway and say it's to preserve democracy. Absolutely hilarious.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/asinmarx/status/1762538171009569041?s=46

Not only is none of this substantiated, as the user in question appears to be some literal rando, but 2/3 of the villains listed don't make any sense.

Regarding Suozzi: shoring up his seat was always in the cards. What happened on Long Island in 2022 basically necessitated a more conservative strategy, as we lost literal double digit Biden seats in an embarrassing rout. In terms of which seat to shore up, NY-04 being Biden +15 means that such a GOP win could be excused as the result of midterm dynamics (POC base didn't turn out, GOP wave with Whites in the state) that won't be in place for 2024. NY-03 does not have this luxury, as its a way more white seat that's only Biden +7; a shore up was practically one of the few requirements of the map (especially with his return to congress).

Regarding Latimer: It should be pretty clear from the district map that he had very little, if any, influence on the map's proceedings. The only change NY-16 witnessed was in picking a different AA area in the Bronx over another AA area in the Bronx. The general consensus is that such a move was done to help Bowman, so theoretically if you want to blame anyone (though the true blame should rest with the NY State Assembly having cold feet), it should go to Bowman.

[Smash255]

Is there a reason they won’t go for a Hochulmander again after they were so willing to do it last time?

They might not be confident that the Courts would uphold the districts.  Keep in mind the Courts didn't say you are free to Gerrymander, but rather than the 2022 districts were temporary and it should go back to the IRC.    While the IRC drawn map was voted down, the maps drawn by the Legislature largely keep the framework of the districts the IRC drew.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/asinmarx/status/1762538171009569041?s=46

Not only is none of this substantiated, as the user in question appears to be some literal rando, but 2/3 of the villains listed don't make any sense.

Regarding Suozzi: shoring up his seat was always in the cards. What happened on Long Island in 2022 basically necessitated a more conservative strategy, as we lost literal double digit Biden seats in an embarrassing rout. In terms of which seat to shore up, NY-04 being Biden +15 means that such a GOP win could be excused as the result of midterm dynamics (POC base didn't turn out, GOP wave with Whites in the state) that won't be in place for 2024. NY-03 does not have this luxury, as its a way more white seat that's only Biden +7; a shore up was practically one of the few requirements of the map (especially with his return to congress).

Regarding Latimer: It should be pretty clear from the district map that he had very little, if any, influence on the map's proceedings. The only change NY-16 witnessed was in picking a different AA area in the Bronx over another AA area in the Bronx. The general consensus is that such a move was done to help Bowman, so theoretically if you want to blame anyone (though the true blame should rest with the NY State Assembly having cold feet), it should go to Bowman.

Suozzi being shored up through Huntington rather than Queens mean that LaLota got a small boost.

Latimer wanting to keep as many white Westchester Dems as possible to beat Bowman meant that NY-17 stays Biden+10 and winnable for Lawler.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/aaronnarraph/status/1762526902130978864?t=LFhzv6XSEaPcC_nJdo...

Wild rumors flying about right now, this is just one of them, but the core is the numerous thoughts is that the senate is going to do something different.  As has been noted many times here, the senate is both more 'partisan-loyal' than the House since it has so many comparatively new Dems, and it has colleagues running for congress whose votes are necessary for this thing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Screw NY Dems if they pass this.

All they did is make the map uglier to appease incumbents, barely changing partisanship of districts.

If you’re not going to gerrymander, just leave the current map in place jeez.

[Spectator]

Screw NY Dems if they pass this.

All they did is make the map uglier to appease incumbents, barely changing partisanship of districts.

If you’re not going to gerrymander, just leave the current map in place jeez.

I’m just confused as to why bother going through all this hassle for essentially no change

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It's political theatre ya'll! It's going to be an aggressive gerrymander

[Tekken_Guy]

I still have a hunch this is all a smokescreen like the “fair” Florida legislature-drawn maps of 2022 were for the DeSantismander.

[Oryxslayer]

The House will take up the Senate Venue bill on Wednesday.

Also:

https://twitter.com/YanceyRoy/status/1762577557726105972?t=r_iW0eNW1BYaqWEKZeI9i...

The GOP really shouldn't have their guys saying this. Cause if the Senate does end up aquesing to the House, then the eventual map is good for them. But coming out and revealing this is just poking Jeffries and asking him to once again publically say "anything good for the GOP is bad for us," and demand a harsher product.

[MillennialModerate]

Anyone want to explain wtf is happening here.

This makes zero sense.

For the record if NC and OH went fair - I’d be okay with it. But…. they didn’t. So WTF?

[Spectator]

Anyone want to explain wtf is happening here.

This makes zero sense.

For the record if NC and OH went fair - I’d be okay with it. But…. they didn’t. So WTF?

Ohio did stay fair.

[GALeftist]

Anyone want to explain wtf is happening here.

This makes zero sense.

For the record if NC and OH went fair - I’d be okay with it. But…. they didn’t. So WTF?

Ohio did stay fair.

Ohio is definitely not fair. A fair Ohio map would have a seat within Hamilton county, a likely D seat in northern Franklin County, and a tossup seat based in Lorain and western Cuyahoga.

[Brittain33]

NY Dems need to get Latimer tf out of Albany. I’m sorry but your personal congressional ambitions come second to preventing the rise of fascism in this country.

Dems call gerrymandering undemocratic and then do it anyway and say it's to preserve democracy. Absolutely hilarious.

As has been explained about eleven billion times, Democratic members of Congress repeatedly voted to ban gerrymandering but would be absolute morons to unilaterally disarm as long as Republicans block those reforms and keep gerrymandering their own states.

[Tekken_Guy]

NY Dems need to get Latimer tf out of Albany. I’m sorry but your personal congressional ambitions come second to preventing the rise of fascism in this country.

In what universe is this even remotely Latimer’s fault?

Because Latimer’s demand to get as many white liberals as possible in his district make it harder to flip NY-17. The general consensus is that Lawler has a very good chance at winning re-election under the current lines because of Rockland’s exploding orthodox population (unlike D’Esposito or Williams who are widely seen as goners).