Lumine's Election and Political Tracker (Epilogue) - Tracker Closed

[Flake]

I was just about to enter that too

By the way it's from May 10th to May 13th

[Flake]

Poll #1: Northeast Regional Senate

Source: SWE Poll
Date: May 10th to 13th
Voters: 20
MOE: +/- 15.69%

Bore (LAB-RI): 45%
Deus Naturae (DR-NY): 55%
Sample size: 20

[Flake]

For the IDS Senate Race, I'd move it to toss-up, since Maxwell is leading in many polls.

[Flake]

Poll #6:
Source: BruhBruh Polling
Date: May 20 - 23, 2014
Voters: 40
MOE: 13.63%

BruhBruh Polling - Presidential Race #2

Governor DemPGH (Lab-OR)/Governor Windjammer (Lab-MN) - 38%
Former GM Sirnick (TPP-NY)/Governor Dallasfan65 (DR-MA) - 30%
Former Governor Winfield (Ind-RI)/Former Governor AndrewTX (Ind-TX) - 18%
Former Senator Snowstalker (LF-ND)/IDS Legislator Maxwell (DR-LA) - 2%
Someone Else - 10%
Undecided - 2%

There seems to be a small sign of right-wing dissatisfaction with the race. Winfield's numbers have gone down slightly, with a large percentage of votes for Someone else. There are two leaders - Sirnick and DemPGH, two candidates who, oddly enough, ran on the same ticket just two elections ago. Snowstalker support declines, probably due to having just one name on the ballot, and possibly because of united support on the left behind DemPGH, who sees his stock go up since the last poll.

[Flake]

Poll #1: IDS Senate

Source: North Star Polls
Date: May 21-24, 2014
Voters: 11
MOE: 23.18%

Maxwell (Democratic Republican-Louisiana) 45.5% (5)
North Carolina Yankee (Federalist-North Carolina): 36.3% (4)
Undecided: 18.2% (2)

Sample size: 11
MOE: 23.18%
Date: May 21 - 24, 2014

(I swear there were more polls)


Poll #2: Northeast Senate

Source: North Star Polls
Date: May 21-24, 2014
Voters: 10
MOE: 27.28%

Bore (Labor-Rhode Island) 70% (7)
Deus (Democratic Republican-New York) 30% (3)
Undecided: 0% (0)

Sample size: 10
MOE: 27.28%
Date: May 21 - 24, 2014

[Flake]

Average of last three polls:*

DemPGH (Labor-Oregon)/Windjammer (Labor-Minnesota): 34.1%
SirNick (TPP-New York)/Dallasfan (DR-Massachusetts): 27.5%
Winfield (Independent-Rhode Island)/AndrewTX (Independent-TX): 25.4%
Snowstalker (Left Front-North Dakota)/Maxwell (DR-Louisiana): 7.6%**
Other/Undecided: 5.3%

*=Averages rounded, may not equal 100%
**=including poll with Oakvale (and Maxwell) as running mate

[Flake]

Oh yeah might as well tell you that I'm not challenging Tyrion either.

[Flake]

Most Important Problem Facing Atlasia:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(If you're a presidential candidate you might want to look at these results and start talking about Game Reform, Activity, and Healthcare more than Education and the Budget)

[Flake]

Poll #2: IDS Senate

Source: BruhBruh Polling
Date: May 18 - 21, 2014
Sample size: 17
MOE: 15.2-15.56%

IDS Senate Internal Poll
IDS Legislator Maxwell (DR-LA) - 52.9%
Senator North Carolina Yankee (Fed-NC) - 35.3%
Undecided - 11.8%

Margin of Error - 15.2%

A narrow lead for Maxwell in the first poll of this competitive race. However, it's a long road, and margin of error of Atlasia polls is high, so it will be interesting to see where this race goes.

[Flake]

Winfield has just dropped out of the Presidential race.

Dammit there goes all of our polls. (Maybe the Draft Riley campaign will be successful?)

[Flake]

Who will be the ticket of the right this time? They finally have a chance to run a conservative now that I'm barred from forcing myself into office each election.

SirNick is still a bit to the right of you

[Flake]

Federalist Nomination:

Voters = 24

SirNick: 46% (11)
NOTA: 29% (7)
DemPGH: 25% (6)

[Flake]

BruhBruh Survey Results Pt. 1



"Bitch I'm loaded, and I got stacks bruh bruh, all my homies from da trap bruh bruh"

52 Voters voted in this survey, which is a pretty great number for an Atlasian poll. So let's dig through the numbers.

Presidential Poll Results
PA Governor DemPGH/MW Governor Windjammer - 48%
Fmr. GM Sirnick/NE Governor Dallasfan65 - 40%
Undecided - 8%
Write-Ins - 4%

DemPGH leads in the race for President, but narrowly. Sirnick will have to fight hard for undecided and write-in voters. There is a decent sign for him though: both write-ins were right leaning (Duke and Hagrid), so that might be good. Either way, this could go down to the wire.

Favorables and Approvals
62-19 Fmr. GM Sirnick
58-23 NE Governor Dallasfan65
69-13 PA Governor DemPGH
50-35 MW Governor Windjammer
63-23 President Duke

Sirnick and Dallas are popular, but DemPGH is very popular, a reversal from his previous Presidential run and his Vice Presidential run. He earned a lot of good will during his tenure as Pacific Governor. However, weighing the ticket down favorably is Windjammer, who has recently faced controversy over his views on freedom of speech.

President Duke is popular, which is no surprise considering his consistent approvals over his tenure.

Demographics

Parties
Fed - 31%
Lab - 35%
TPP - 14%
DR - 11%
Ind - 6%
Other - 4%

Inds and Others are undersampled, but every other party is oversampled to a certain level, Labor and TPP in particular.

Regions
Mideast - 21%
Northeast    - 23%
Midwest - 17%
Pacific - 21%
IDS - 17%

Northeast, Mideast, and Midwest are undersampled, while Pacific and IDS are oversampled, but it's pretty close to actual stats.

Left-Right
Far Left - 8%
Left - 23%
Center Left - 21%
Center - 10%
Center Right - 25%
Right - 14%
Far Right - 0%

The Rightwing controls 39% of the electorate, while the left controls 52%. That leaves another 10% of the electorate, meaning, once again, any right-wing winning candidate has to dig in the center left.

Questions

Constitutional Convention?
Yes - 37%
No - 42%
Not Sure - 21%

In spite of a large scale movement for a constitutional convention, there doesn't seem to really be any willingness for it. Support is pretty weak, with less than 40% of the electorate wanting one.

Was the Supreme Court right?
Yes - 73%
No - 14%
Not Sure - 14%

Overwhelmingly, the Atlasian electorate agrees with the ruling by the Supreme Court that the LGBT Hate Crimes bill in the Midwest was unconstitutional.

Are we better off than we were 4 months ago?
Yes - 42%
No - 35%
LOL RONALD REAGAN - 23%

though there was an option that makes this somewhat irrelevent, Voters are mixed, but slightly view today as being better than 4 months ago, which is somewhat optimistic for the future of Atlasia.

[Flake]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jf3dxUfKoqKydnOEVmd5WtQU6YP8rmE1TFLqBQQzPhg/edit#gid=0

Senate tracker that Lumine and I will be working on. Please let me know if there are any errors.

[Flake]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jf3dxUfKoqKydnOEVmd5WtQU6YP8rmE1TFLqBQQzPhg/edit#gid=0

Senate tracker that Lumine and I will be working on. Please let me know if there are any errors.

It requires permission currently.

I changed the settings so everyone can view, sorry about that!

[Flake]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RamaK3-hFJ-ULgOL-P_KduYv75TAo1cMlk4YgplShwA/edit#gid=0

Presidential Tracker

[Flake]

First results are in the tracker after the first hour of voting, and with 18 votes in SirNick leads DemPGH 10 to 8, or 55% to 44%. Strong turnout for the Democratic Republicans, crossover support for DemPGH on Spamage, Badgate and Tmthforu.

Badgate is a Laborite

[Flake]

According to our live presidential election results tracker, DemPGH is leading SirNick in the second round, leading by about 4%. The write in ticket, Hagrid/Tmth, takes about 9% of the vote in the first round of voting.

[Flake]

First Round:
DemPGH: 48.27%
SirNick: 41.37%
Hagrid (WI): 10.34%

Second Round:
DemPGH: 58.62%
SirNick: 42.31%

[Flake]

[Flake]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jf3dxUfKoqKydnOEVmd5WtQU6YP8rmE1TFLqBQQzPhg/edit?usp=sharing

Senate Elections updated (last vote cinyc)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RamaK3-hFJ-ULgOL-P_KduYv75TAo1cMlk4YgplShwA/edit#gid=0

Presidential Election updated (last vote ogre mage)