Lumine's Election and Political Tracker (Epilogue) - Tracker Closed

[Lumine]

Election and Political Tracker:

Team:

-Director: LumineVonReuental
-Pollster and Polling Expert: Flo.

Well, I feel having these threads is a good idea, and with four candidates already aiming to reach the Presidency, I thought I might as well open one (I expect Cris or Flo will open a much more detailed one, of course).

Presidential Election:

-Frm. Vice-President DemPGH (Lab-WA) / Midwest Governor Windjammer (Lab-MN)
Campaign Thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=185743.150

-Frm. King in the North SirNick (TPP-NY) / Frm. Vice-President Dallasfan65 (DR-MA)
Campaign Thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164259.375

Senate Election:

Midwest:
-Incumbent Senator TNF (Lab-MT)
Campaign Thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172624.425

-Citizen RR1997 (Fed-IA)
Campaign Thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=192784.0

Northeast:
-Incumbent Senator Bore (Lab-RI)
Campaign Thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169612.100

-Northeast Assemblyman Deus naturae (DR-NY)
Campaign Thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=188172.75

Pacific:
-Incumbent Senator Tyrion (Lab-NM)
Campaign Thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=177824.175

South:
-Former Senator and IDS Legislator Maxwell (DR-LA)
Campaign Thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=192531.0

-Incumbent Senator and PPT North Carolina Yankee (Fed-NC)
Campaign Thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=98481.275

Mideast:
-Incumbent Senator DC al Fine (Fed-MD)
Campaign Thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=183057.25

-Frm. Assemblyman MadmanMotley (DR-IN)
Campaign Thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=193148.0

-Frm. AG, Gov. and Senator Benconstine (TPP-VA)
Campaign Thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152964.250

[SWE]

Winfield is an independent

[Lumine]

Poll #1:

Source: Lumine Poll
Date: May 7th to May 10th
Voters: 42

Results:

Former VP and Governor DemPGH (Lab) - 38.1%
Generic Federalist (Fed) - 31%
Former GM and Governor SirNick (TPP) - 23.8%
Former Senator Snowstalker (Left Front) - 2.4%
Other/Write-in - 2.4%
None of the above - 2.4%

Well, it seems the Duke Party System (that resulted in two powerful landslides) will finally come to an end after the Presidential Elections of October 2013 and February 2014. With only 42 voters it's hard to point out how large the leads really are, but it seems Former Vice-President DemPGH is on the road to a comeback after his defeat in the Labor Convention and a fourth place result in the October Election, with most of Labor seeming enthusiastic and supportive of his potential second run. Alas, there is room for the Federalists (there has been talk of Riley, Scott and other officeholders as potential candidates) to overcome DemPGH, and the same could be said of SirNick and Dallasfan, who seem likely to take the center and many independents. Snowstalker gets a single vote, but I wouldn't be surprised if he got a high result (like 5-7%) in the first round, specially after picking Oakvale as his running mate (thus burying speculation of a "dream team").

It's hard to tell if we are going to get more candidates, but between this and a competitive Senate election in the Northeast, we have an interesting election cycle in our hands for the next month!

[Lumine]

Winfield is an independent

You're right, mistake fixed!

[Senator Cris]

Great!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I trust you mean PPT and not PTT.

[Lumine]

I trust you mean PPT and not PTT.

Sorry, my mistake, xD

[Lumine]

Poll #2:

Source: North Star Polls
Date: May 10th to May 13th
Voters: 34

Winfield (Independent-Rhode Island)
35.3%

DemPGH (Labor-Oregon)
32.4%

SirNick (The People's Party-New York)
26.5%

Snowstalker (Left Front-North Dakota)
5.9%

Sample size: 34
95% level of confidence
+/- 15.03%

[Flake]

I was just about to enter that too

By the way it's from May 10th to May 13th

[Flake]

Poll #1: Northeast Regional Senate

Source: SWE Poll
Date: May 10th to 13th
Voters: 20
MOE: +/- 15.69%

Bore (LAB-RI): 45%
Deus Naturae (DR-NY): 55%
Sample size: 20

[Lumine]

Well, seems we are going to have an active field with Winfield, SirNick, DemPGH and Snowstalker. I could be wrong on this, but it seems that with Winfield as the default nominee for the center-right (assuming no Federalist attempts a run), the first round is just an elimination battle for the real duel, which makes the eventual result hard to predict. Any thoughts on potential running mates for Winfield and DemPGH and/or other candidates for President?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

God knows who our beloved feds will run. I hope it's someone as handsy as our administration.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

As the founding chairman of the Federalist Party- I recommend my party endorse Winfield in this election

[Lumine]

Update:

-In short: A good amount of announcements this week, but it could be said that the announcement with the most potential comes from Former President Tmthforu, who recently announced he was running for President, pretty much destroying speculation on Winfield being the center-right candidate. The other candidates also took the time to release a part of their platforms, and it seems that, unlike in February, we are going to have a truly interesting election.

-Tmthforu: So far we only have his announcement, with no thread or any other post to draw conclusions from. It should be obvious that Tmth has the potential to be nominated by the Federalists rather easily, but it's hard to speculate without a thread.

-Winfield/Andrew: Winfield chose to pick a fellow independent for his ticket, choosing the experienced AndrewTX as his running mate. Winfield's chances seem quite weak with a Federalist on the field, but polling suggests he will easily overcome Snowstalker and perhaps, just perhaps, get close to third.

-DemPGH: With the most active campaign this week, DemPGH chose to release some parts of his platform, speaking about Education, Healthcare and Game Reform. He still hasn't announced who his running mate is, but has DemPGH become the man to beat at this point?

-SirNick/Dallasfan: With SirNick having released most of his platform back at the start of his campaign, this week saw the release of his foreign policy proposals, with the promise of further releases over the weekend.

-Snowstalker: No announcements in the past days. Polling suggests very strongly that Snowstalker is stuck on the fifth place, and he will need the full strength of the far-left if he wishes to get fourth.

[President Tyrion]

Is this about to become the most interesting Presidential election in my career here?

[Lumine]

With the announcement of the eventual and inmminent execution of Oakvale by firing squad and his replacement by Maxwell, and the surprise pick of Windjammer as DemPGH's running mate, we have the four main tickets competing for the Presidency with about a month to campaign (that is, if no more candidates announce their intention to run). With DemPGH/Windjammer seeking to mobilize the left, SirNick/Dallasfan to fight for the center, Winfield/AndrewTX to appeal to the center right and Duke supporters and Snowstalker/Maxwell to fight for revolution, the stage is set.

Cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of war!

[Lumine]

Update: May 16th to May 21st:

-In short: In whas has probably been the three most active days of the campaign, all the candidates are going out in full force to make their case and gather enough support for the upcoming conventions and general election. With Tmthforu gone Winfield is back to the top tier, and DemPGH continues to gain steam while going to the Labor convention, in which he is expected to face very different results than in October.

-Winfield/Andrew: Winfield has taken a very active schedule, unveiling his campaign banner, answering questions on several issues, recieving Tmthforu's valuable endorsement and taking an extensive interview with "The Observer", in which he talked about his candidacy and his strenghts as a candidate. Alas, he has been attacked by "The Mideast Telegraph" by his populist stance on economic policy, stating that the paper will not endorse him and is hoping for a better candidate for the center-right.

-DemPGH/Windjammer: With the surprise announcement of Midwest Governor Windjammer to be his running mate, the Former Vice-President is going aggresive now, publishing his economic proposals while Windjammer blasts SirNick and Dallasfan over differences in Educational policy. He has also recieved the endorsement of IDS Emperor Scott, the first Federalist to endorse him, and "The Observer".

-SirNick/Dallasfan: This ticket has also released its banner, and SirNick made a very strong case for his ticket while using DemPGH's exact words when choosing him as his VP candidate back in October.

-Snowstalker/Maxwell: While the announcement of Maxwell as his true VP was not really discussed in Atlasia, Snowstalker has taken a very visible role in his recent judicial challenge to the Midwest, stating that Gov. Windjammer's "Midwest Fitzgerald-Cris-Sol Compromise, LGBT Equality, Hate Crimes and Suicide Prevention Act" is plainly unconstitutional. This has brought him much derision and scorn from the left (specially from "The Observer"

[Lumine]

Poll #4:

Source: BruhBruh Polling
Date: May 17th to May 20th
Voters: 47

BruhBruh Polling - Presidential Race

Governor DemPGH (Lab-OR)/Governor Windjammer (Lab-MN) - 32%
Former Game Moderator Sirnick (TPP-NY)/Governor Dallasfan (DR-NY) - 26%
Former Governor Winfield (Ind-RI)/Former Governor AndrewTX (Ind-TX) - 23%
Former Senator Snowstalker (LF-ND)/Associate Justice Oakvale (TPP-CA) - 11%
Former Senator Snowstalker (LF-ND)/IDS Legislator Maxwell (DR-LA) - 4%
Others - 2%
Undecided - 2%

No candidate gains a majority outright, but in the lead is Governor DemPGH and his newly announced VP candidate Governor windjammer. Not too far behind are both Former GM Sirnick and Former NE Governor Winfield. Winfield has some trouble uniting the right - with Dallasfan running as Sirnick's VP, he certainly gains a good chunk of the Atlasian right wing. Snowstalker gets a surprisingly high level of support, but that may have more to do with two running mates being listed, instead of the one who is there now (yours truly). Looks like it will be an interesting race ahead.

[Lumine]

Poll #5:

Source: BruhBruh Polling
Date: May 18th to May 21st
Voters: 29

IDS Senate Internal Poll
IDS Legislator Maxwell (DR-LA) - 52.9%
Senator North Carolina Yankee (Fed-NC) - 35.3%
Undecided - 11.8%

Margin of Error - 15.2%

A narrow lead for Maxwell in the first poll of this competitive race. However, it's a long road, and margin of error of Atlasia polls is high, so it will be interesting to see where this race goes.

[Lumine]

List of Endorsements: (to be updated)

Winfield (Ind-RI) / AndrewTX (Ind-TX)

-The Atlasian Post (Newspaper)
-Former President Tmthforu94 (Fed)
-Former Senator and Presidential Candidate Clarence (Fed)
-Game Master and former Senator Simfan34 (TPP)
-Former Midwest Rep. Cris (Fed)

DemPGH (Lab-WA) / Windjammer (Lab-MN)

-The Northeast Journal (Newspaper)
-The Observer (Newspaper)
-Former President and RG Fritz (Lab)
-Former President Dr. Cynic (Lab)
-Former President Averroes Nix (Lab)
-IDS Emperor Scott (Fed)
-Former Senator X (Lab)
-Pacific Speaker TheCranberry (Lab)
-Pacific Councilior Flo (Lab)
-Northeast Rep. SomebodyWhoExists (Lab)
-Midwest Rep. Adam C. Fitzgerald (Lab)
-Midwest Rep. Sol (Lab)
-Former Representative and Assemblyman Butafly (TPP)

SirNick (TPP-NY) / Dallasfan65 (DR-MA)

-The Porcupine (Newspaper)
-Former President Polnut (TPP)
-Former Game Moderador and SoEA SJoyce (TPP)
-Secretary of External Affairs Superique (TPP)
-Senator LumineVonReuental (Fed)
-Senator Shua (DR)
-IDS Legislator Maxwell (DR)
-Northeast Rep. BaconBacon96 (Lab)
-Former Pacific Justice IBDD (UNDA)

Snowstalker (Left Front-ND) / Maxwell (DR-LA)

-

[DemPGH]

Nice job with day-to-day coverage, Lumine, even though you've endorsed my opponent.

Good to see a chronicle of sorts. I'm very pleased to have the public support of three previous presidents  so far, and maybe the private support of one or two more. And it's nice that a lot of those vocal supporters are folks I've worked with! If elected, we won't neglect the, er, people.

[Lumine]

Nice job with day-to-day coverage, Lumine, even though you've endorsed my opponent.

Good to see a chronicle of sorts. I'm very pleased to have the public support of three previous presidents  so far, and maybe the private support of one or two more. And it's nice that a lot of those vocal supporters are folks I've worked with! If elected, we won't neglect the, er, people.

Thank you, Mr. Vice-President, it was pretty disturbing not to see anybody trying to present their own skewed and twisted version of what's happening right now, xD

____________________________________________________________________________

Senate Election Special!

Overall: During the past months Labor has been able to hold to a majority of regional Senate seats, which has been crucial to their (so far failed) attempts to control an outright majority in the Senate. In February they sucessfully played defense against Poirot in the Northeast and me in the Midwest, but with new challengers and a changed political situation, can Labor hold to their seats one more time? Bore and TNF already have challengers, as has Yankee, and only DC al Fine (if he runs for reelection) and Tyrion face no opponents as of now. And not only that, we already have two candidates announced for the next At-Large election, Former President Polnut and Former President Dr. Cynic, who can be considered almost safe bets for the next election.

Now, let's get into detail:

The Pacific:

Senator Tyrion v. ?

Analysis: It seemed Tyrion was going to be challenged back in February, but the four potential challengers (Flo, DemPGH, PJ and Superique) for one reason or another ended up not running for that seat. As a result, Tyrion went unchallenged, and it seems he will go unchallenged this time as well. But there is room for a challenger, or at least I think so. While current GM Simfan is unlilkely to run, a campaign by Devin, Oakvale or a primary challenge by Flo might bring a truly competitive race to the Pacific. But until that happens, this is a Safe Labor Hold.

The Mideast:

Senator DC al Fine v. ?

Analysis: With DC al Fine winning his past election in a landslide against a write-in opponent and with the demise of the left across the region, he seems more than likely to retain his seat should he run. While the Senator has not announced his intention, I believe he will run for that seat. Potential challengers might include former Attorney General Benconstine to the left and Cassius to the right, but this is almost assuredly a Safe Federalist Hold.

The Midwest:

Senator TNF v. Citizen RR1997

Analysis: Senator TNF is probably one of the symbols of Labor across the nation, and so far he has faced three strong challengers with Maxwell, Rooney and myself. But even with a massive advantage in terms of likely voters, TNF faces himself challenged once again, this time by new citizen RR1997, a Federalist from Iowa who strongly believes TNF can (and should, going by his comments) be defeated. And while TNF is considered unbeatable to some, it should be remembered that I actually came one vote short of unseating him, so I'll rate this only as a Likely Labor Hold.

The South:

Senator North Carolina Yankee v. Former Governor Maxwell

Analysis: After months of landslides victories, the longest serving Senator in the history of Atlasia finally has a strong challenger in Maxwell. While Senator Yankee has not stated if he will run again or not, this will be a race to watch, a race that will hopefully increase activity levels in the South. So far Maxwell has released his banner and his take on some bills being currently discussed, and since he leads the polls so far this is probably a Toss-up.

The Northeast:

Senator Bore v. Northeast Representative Deus

Analysis: Ah, the Clash of the Titans of this election. While Bore easily defeated challenger Poirot last election, Deus comes right from an active and strong Senate bid for the special election, and both candidates have already released platforms, ideas and criticism of one another. Polls tend to show contradictory results, and it seems the Northeast easy is divided in regards to this election. Some say Bore has the advantage, but I think this is a Toss-up.

[Lumine]

Announcement:

In order to cover the elections more closely, I will switch my style to resemble the newspapers and Politico as well. If someone wishes to help, I accept applications to handle the polls and to provide political commentary or even conduct interviews if needed be.

[Lumine]

Waiting for Riley?

Draft Campaign initiated by "The Mideast Telegraph":

Special News: It seems the Winfield/Andrew TX ticket continues to struggle to gain support from the center-right, and in particular, from the Federalist Party. A few hours ago, press baron and Former Mideast Assemblyman Cassius wrote an opinion piece in "The Mideast Telegraph", stating the need for a principled candidate of the right, suggesting Winfield should not be said candidate. Furthermore, Cassius pointed out that Mideast Governor TheRileyKeaton should be the Federalist nominee, and started a draft campaign in order to get him to run for President. With the Federalist Party divided between SirNick and Winfield and Riley's solid credentials and meteoric rise, Cassius might very well find the support he needs in order to draft the Governor into the Presidential fight. And while DemPGH and SirNick remain the favourites for the second round of the election, Riley shouldn't be underestimated.

[Flake]

For the IDS Senate Race, I'd move it to toss-up, since Maxwell is leading in many polls.