2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Remember, early voting opened today in much of Florida, but many smaller, more rural counties don't open up for a few more days. Just something to keep in mind.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I can't believe it, but I actually think Collin is going to flip with these turnout numbers.

Say turnout is 140% of 2016.

First assume that every Biden gets every Clinton 2016 vote+3rd party 2016 vote. That yields:
Trump: 201,014
Biden: 163,416

Then add 135,000 new votes which split 70-30 Biden. (70,000 from new residents and 65,000 from voters who didn't turn out last time.) That yields:
Biden: 257,916 (52%)
Trump: 241,514 (48%)

Obviously these numbers are very crude but they prove a Biden win here is possible. I wouldn't be *that* shocked by a Denton flip as well.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Right now 38.5% of registered democrats have turned out.  If they keep steadily increasing this number, hopefully Biden can micro-target the stragglers.  

I've been volunteering in South Florida and iirc, they expect 2/3 of votes to be in before election day and have been recruiting volunteers HARD to make calls on the last four days. Because early voting/dropboxes close on 11/1, using SOS matchbacks they should be able to target every likely Biden vote that hasn't turned out before election day.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Right now 38.5% of registered democrats have turned out.  If they keep steadily increasing this number, hopefully Biden can micro-target the stragglers.  

I've been volunteering in South Florida and iirc, they expect 2/3 of votes to be in before election day and have been recruiting volunteers HARD to make calls on the last four days. Because early voting/dropboxes close on 11/1, using SOS matchbacks they should be able to target every likely Biden vote that hasn't turned out before election day.

so the closer to 2/3 of Dem votes in by 11/1 the better?  And if it's more than 2/3 then that's a great sign?

Maybe? More Dem votes are always better but it depends on what the Republicans are doing. Regardless, expect e-day votes to be about half of VMB+early vote on 11/1 and use that to calculate how much Dems can lose e-day by.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Let’s hope that the weekend bump culminates, but the GOP is currently over performing in Florida. Let’s not ignore that.

I for one, am saddened and unsurprised by the re-election of idiocrat, Donald J Trump.
I won’t comment on here anymore since it’s clear the Atlas bubble effect is really strong and nothing will change your mind.
I guess watching the complete shock of everyone here when the f**ker gets re-elected will be a bit of entertainment in the otherwise horrible night that is coming.

And what if you're wrong?