Venezuelan Regional and Local "megaelection" 2021 (Barinas repeat election: January 9, 2022)

[Skye]

So glad I wasn't the one who had to write this.

[Skye]

Almost coincidentally with MRCVzla's post, the CNE posted the ballots on its webpage, in case anyone wants to check the candidates for this dumpster fire of an event:

http://doe.postulaciones.org.ve/event2021

[Skye]

Given MUD is being allowed to run again, I assume they will win at least a handful of mayors and governors correct? (even if they are later deposed for not swearing allegiance to Maduro and the elections are completely rigged)

Very tough question to answer, it would depend on who you ask. If you see polls before the election, your best bet would be to completely disregard at least most of them.

The MUD is assured several mayoral races, but mostly in places the opposition is already quite strong. Chavismo won several mayoral races back in 2017 in places they shouldn't have even come close under normal circumstances, but most of the opposition decided not to participate.

The governor races are different, though. Even if the election was to be competitive, there's still the matter of the "dissident opposition" candidates. They don't matter as much in many states, but in others they are important factors, such are the cases of Carabobo where Bertucci is running, or Miranda, where the presence of David Uzcátegui on the ballot means Ocariz's candidacy is DOA.

[Skye]

Common PJ L.

[Skye]

Hard to put into words how much of a catastrophe this was for the opposition.

[Skye]

What did and how did the Popular Revolutionary Alternative do?

They were a very minor factor in most places, afaik. Their best result seems to be Portuguesa, where former governor Antonia Muñoz got like 10% of the vote.

[Skye]

As far as I remember, chavismo has never said "lol it was just a prank bro, you were never supposed to be a candidate in the first place" after an election has taken place as an excuse to overturn the result, but that's chavismo for you. As a candidate, you aren't supposed to pose a threat to them.

[Skye]

Barinas election this Sunday. There have only been two polls, both of which show leads for Garrido, and both of which, as is tradition, you shouldn't really pay attention to.

It's hilarious how the PSUV nominated Arreaza, a man with absolutely 0 charisma and with no ties to the state (unless being Chávez's ex son-in-law counts), and how the controlled opposition brought in Fermín, who has made his entire political career in Caracas, to divide the opposition vote. Oh well.

[Skye]

Since there's no Venezuela general thread, I thought I'd ask it here. What were the support bases of the main parties of the pre-Chávez era? I mean mostly AD and COPEI, but also the small parties - URD, MEP, MAS and such. Anything about Venezuelan politics in the Puntofijo era is really hard to find - no maps, no results by state, no analysis, no polls, nothing. I know that in theory, AD was centre-left, COPEI was centre-right and the former had a dominant position, but there don't seem to have been any actual differences between them, while almost all other parties were/pretended to be some shade of left and the right was near-nonexistent. I realize this is a very broad question, but, like, why?

Not sure I'm the right person to answer this. Like you said, detailed accounts from Venezuelan elections from before the Chávez era is poorly documented on the internet. There are, however, plenty of books written about the 4th Republic, in Spanish of course.

Broadly speaking (and like I said, I'm probably not very qualified to explain this) AD and Copei were the most important parties. AD was the Social Democratic party, while Copei was the Christian Democratic party. MEP and MAS were Socialist parties, though the MEP was formed by a split from AD, while the MAS was formed by former Communists. La Causa R was also born from a split from the Communist Party, but would not become relevant until late in the period, when their heavily anti-establishment rhetoric resonated much more among the electorate.