Venezuelan Regional and Local "megaelection" 2021 (Barinas repeat election: January 9, 2022)

[MRCVzla]

Despite how weakened its democracy is currently, Venezuela is heading on November 21 to a regional and local "megaelections", for the first time since 2008 state governors and mayors will be elected on the same day, together with their respective state and local councils, a total of 3,082 positions will be elected: 23 governors, 335 mayors, 253 state legislators and 2,471 local councilors. 21.1 million voters (including Venezuelans and naturalized foreigners) would be able to vote.

In the last electoral cycle (2017-2018) 4 elections were held for each position, in the previous Governors election (October 2017) the demotivation of the democratic opposition to the electoral route began after the irregular changes of voting centers, not allowed to modify candidacies (which allowed Chavismo to "steal" the southern state of Bolívar from the opposition candidate) and that the elected governors had to swear in before the then National Constituent Assembly (ANC), the opposition then won 5/23 states in dispute and only the 4 governors elected by the AD party (Anzoátegui, Nueva Esparta, Mérida and Táchira) managed to exercise, the elected opposition governor of the western state of Zulia (PJ) remained to not acknowledge the chavista ANC and his election was declared void, Chavismo later would gained Zulia when the snap election was hold out together with the Mayors election (December 2017) where the pattern was already established that Chavismo would win the most positions and the opposition with the parties and leaders that did want to participate would maintain their strongholds in the suburbs of large cities such as the East of capitol city Caracas. The State Legislative Councils were elected on the same day as the questioned Presidential election (May 2018) and obviously Chavismo with Maduro took control in all the states (and the opposition representation, reduced to very few elected by the parties of then presidential candidates Falcón and Bertucci), finally the Municipal Councils were renewed in December 2018 with a similar outcome, the most relevant then being that Chavismo won control of the municipal chamber of Baruta (one of the eastern municipalities of the Capital), a historical opposition stronghold.

To enable the "megaelections", the National Assembly elected in 2020 of the Chavista supermajority repealed the Law of Regularization of State and Municipal Powers (which regulated the terms of each office) to be able to convene simultaneously (and in some cases in advance) all regional and local offices. In May, the National Electoral Council (CNE) was renewed with the appointment of Pedro Calzadilla (former Chávez minister) as President and the inclusion of 2 rectors close to the civil society/majority democratic opposition, a few days later the call for elections was announced.

During last August 8 (and with controversy) the open primaries of the ruling party PSUV were held, with much discontent among the party bases, in which in the end, some of the winners did not even participate in the process or the outcome was changed. As one of the consecuences, both the current mayor of Caracas (Libertador municipality) as well as the governor of Aragua state resigned from their positions after losing in the primaries. Nominees for top positions include many incumbent or interim governors, as well the controversial government-appointed "protectors" in opposition-controlled states.

Finally, the majoritarian democratic opposition concentrated in the so-called "G4" (PJ-UNT-AD-VP) or also known as the Unitary Platform will present candidates for these elections under the symbols of the MUD (which party card was once again accepted under the CNE), Although there will be several opposition offers between the Democratic Alliance (the "opposition" sector that is represented in the 2020 elected parliament) or Fuerza Vecinal (a new party related to incumbent governors and mayors elected in 2017), among other minority parties/alliances... for now. The CNE even extended the deadline for submitting applications until today, September 1, and modifications will be allowed until the end of the month in the event that "unity" in the opposition is realized in some way (unlikely, at least between the MUD and the Democratic Alliance). Likewise, there are still sectors such as those of Guaidó or several of the "exiles" abroad that ask for more guarantees to the process (international observation, etc.) or that directly continue to call for abstention as a form of protest against the "regime" (like La Causa R, Ledezma, Machado...).

All meanwhile there is a new dialogue process between Maduro' government and Guaidó' opposition set in Mexico with Norway as one of the negotiatiors, conversations started in August and are still in process without a clear outcome. Guaido' side as started calling the process as the search of a "National Salvation Accord".

Similar to the parliamentary electoral type event of last December 2020, the positions for the state and municipal councils will be mainly PR-list (60% vs. 40% of nominal positions), while the seats of indigenous representation will be electes the same way as in the parliamentary election in a second degree election through "popular assemblies" (less than 4,000 registered among the 8 states where there is indigenous representation) to be held on November 26.

Any related information that may occur, as well as the status of the races in each of the states or main cities will be discussed in this topic.

[Skye]

So glad I wasn't the one who had to write this.

[MRCVzla]

A brief write-up in ust over a month before of the local/regional mega-elections.

Almost all the attention falls on one of the "crown jewels" for the opposition such as the Miranda State, where there is an important opposition division, the MUD nominated Carlos Ocariz (PJ, former mayor of the Sucre/Petare municipality and 2017 governor candidate ) while the party of the opposition mayors Fuerza Vecinal nominated David Uzcátegui (former councilor of the Baruta municipality with a past in PJ, previously barred to run for several years), before the closing of the modification of applications they tried to resolve the unitary candidacy through commisioned opinion polls, but in the end an agreement was not reached (Uzcátegui still asks for primaries), the curious thing is to see above all in the Miranda municipalities that are in Greater Caracas how both parties present different candidates for Governor but almost the same candidates for Mayor. as the MUD supports the re-election of the incumbent mayors (and founding members of Fuerza Vecinal) of Chacao (Gustavo Duque), Baruta (Darwin González) and El Hatillo (Elías Sayegh), opposition strongholds in Eastern Caracas City. Depending on turnout, the division can take its toll and ensure the re-election of incumbent Governor Héctor Rodríguez (PSUV). Very distant and with little relevance, the COPEI ad-hoc leader and 2020 AN deputy Juan Carlos Alvarado is running under the Democratic Alliance.

In the Libertador Municipality (Western/Central Caracas City), there is also an important division in the opposition ranks, the MUD nominated the 2015 AN deputy Tomás Guanipa (PJ), his main internal rival would be Antonio Ecarri, leader of the small party Alianza del Lápiz, while the Democratic Alliance nominated the alternate deputy for the 2020 AN Pedro José Rojas (AD ad-hoc), originally was going to run for the alliance the leader of Pro Ciudadanos Leocenís García. This division would also favor the ruling party (PSUV) that presents "almiranta" Carmén Meléndez, former minister and elected Governor for the Lara State in 2017 who won the primaries, and caused the resign of then chavista mayor Erika Farías.

In the other states where the opposition or a member of Acción Democrática currently holds office, 3 of the 4 incumbent governors are running for re-election with the support of the MUD. In Anzoátegui (my home state), the incumbent Antonio Barreto Sira will face Luis José Marcano for the PSUV (State-designed "protector", former mayor of Barcelona/Bolívar municipality and former anchor and president of the state-owned TV channel VTV) and José Brito for the Democratic Alliance (deputy of the 2020 AN and one of the "alacranes", from the PJ ripoff party Primero Venezuela). In Mérida, Ramón Guevara will have as his main rival the former Chavista governor and "protector" Jheyson Guzmán who lost in 2017 (the Democratic Alliance nominates Edgar Márquez, Copeyano mayor of Antonio Pinto Salinas municipality), while in Nueva Esparta, Alfredo Díaz will also have a 3-front battle between "protector" Dante Rivas (PSUV) and former Governor Morel Rodríguez Ávila (Democratic Alliance). In the only state where the MUD does not support the incumbent governor, it will be Táchira, where Laidy Gómez will wear the white symbols of her AD party and seek re-election against the "protector" and prominent Chavista representative Freddy Bernal (former mayor of Caracas), the MUD presents the regional dirigent Fernando Andrade Roa.

In other relevant races, in Carabobo the "vampire" Rafael Lacava seeks to consolidate his irreverent leadership in the Governorship against the former mayor of San Diego Enzo Scarano (MUD) or the evangelical pastor/2020 AN deputy/former presidential candidate Javier Bertucci (Democratic Alliance ), the former governor Luis Acosta Carlez also presents himself but more in a testimonial way for a small regional party. In Zulia, it's a repeat of snap December 2017 election between incumbent governor Omar Prieto (PSUV) and regional leader/former governor/former presidential candidate Manuel Rosales (UNT). In Lara, the PSUV presents the interim governor Adolfo Pereira (in office after Meléndez joined Maduro's cabinet in 2020, he meanwhile served as regional Secretary of Govern, the equivalent of Vice Governor) while former governor Henri Falcón (Alianza Democrática) seeks to recover the office it lost in 2017, for the MUD is running 2015 AN Luis Florido (UNT).

Bolívar was one of the most contested states in 2017 where the opposition was robbed, with controversy, the PSUV imposed as a candidate deputy Ángel Marcano who originally did not run for the primaries of the party where the incumbent governor Justo Noguera was, For opposition factors, both sides present candidates related to the AD factions, the businessman Raúl Yusef for the MUD (Ramos Allup' faction) and the regional dirigent José Manuel Muqueza for the Democratic Alliance (Bernabé Gutíerrez' faction), also running former deputy Americo de Grazia by regional/minor parties. Meanwhile, Aragua was one of the states where the surprise jumped in the Chavista primaries, where Karina Carpio, wife of a former minister close to Diosdado Cabello, was the winner, this caused the resignation of then State Governor Rodolfo Marco Torres. The MUD presents the regional leader Henry Rosales (of the progressive MPV party) while the veteran Adeco leader and 2020 AN deputy Luis Eduardo Martínez, former governor of Monagas who appears in his native state, goes through the Democratic Alliance.

I will mention other races in the rest of the states or relevant municipalities later, in many of them on the Chavista side there were modifications above the party's primaries, while in the MUD there are several candidates from 2017 who try again to win in their states. In general, whatever the turnout or how overwhelming the Chavista victory may be, it will be a whole renewal of leadership in the weak but resistant Venezuelan democracy.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

PS: In other political news, chavismo regime has suspended his participation in the Mexico dialogue process, after the extradition to the US of colombian-born "diplomatic" Alex Saab, who's alleged Maduro' "testaferro" who sold food from dubious quality in the CLAP program, is charged for "money laundering". Other relevant news was the death for former Defense minister and political prisoner Raúl Isaías Baduel, in custody of the chavista authorities by cardiac complications, originally the authorities told that Baduel died by COVID related complications, but their family denied that version.

[Skye]

Almost coincidentally with MRCVzla's post, the CNE posted the ballots on its webpage, in case anyone wants to check the candidates for this dumpster fire of an event:

http://doe.postulaciones.org.ve/event2021

[Former President tack50]

Given MUD is being allowed to run again, I assume they will win at least a handful of mayors and governors correct? (even if they are later deposed for not swearing allegiance to Maduro and the elections are completely rigged)

[Skye]

Given MUD is being allowed to run again, I assume they will win at least a handful of mayors and governors correct? (even if they are later deposed for not swearing allegiance to Maduro and the elections are completely rigged)

Very tough question to answer, it would depend on who you ask. If you see polls before the election, your best bet would be to completely disregard at least most of them.

The MUD is assured several mayoral races, but mostly in places the opposition is already quite strong. Chavismo won several mayoral races back in 2017 in places they shouldn't have even come close under normal circumstances, but most of the opposition decided not to participate.

The governor races are different, though. Even if the election was to be competitive, there's still the matter of the "dissident opposition" candidates. They don't matter as much in many states, but in others they are important factors, such are the cases of Carabobo where Bertucci is running, or Miranda, where the presence of David Uzcátegui on the ballot means Ocariz's candidacy is DOA.

[MRCVzla]

Update! Ocariz is out of Miranda race, he declined his candidacy and made the MUD party card available (*) to endorse Uzcátegui and maximize the opposition vote to regain that state. With less than 10 days before the election, it is the final deadline to make changes to the outgoing candidacies, the ones who get reflected in the final result (but not the ballot/voting machine).

(*) But like happened in 2017 in other states, the change came very late (just two and a half hours AFTER the modified deadline, legally at midnight but due to many positions in race, they advanced to 4pm, the notification were send at 6:30pm), so is very likely who anyone who thought to vote for Ocariz in the "manito (handy)" party card in Miranda, will still be a valid vote for him (in other words, his votes will probably not be either transferable or void/null), Uzcátegui is already requesting the CNE to make effective the change (and one of the pro-opposition rectors has said that his request is being processed), but if this is not possible, they have to be agressive in teaching the voters to choose (mainly) the Fuerza Vecinal party card in the governor race or do the so-complicated cross voting (**) to still vote for MUD candidates in the other races. Bc may cause a Bolívar 2017 all over again, and cost the governorship.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

(**) This year, the process for voting is this: The voter will found in their precinct a single voting machine, in the first stage, the screen will show the traditional ballot with the order all party cards running in the elections in your state, as the system encourages block voting, as you select the party card of your choice, will vote for ALL the positions in race (governor, mayor, state legislators and local councilors, in Distrito Capital/Libertador municipality just mayor and council races), if the voter want to change any position, they have to select manually or one-per-one the position to change, and another screen will show with the ballot for that position, in the governor race, every party card shows the face of the candidate, in the mayoral race just the name of the candidate, in the legislative and council races will see the list vote or select the names of the nominal votes candidates -varies for constituency- in the party card of preference), That complicated is the process to do cross voting... oh, and the time limit to vote in the voting maching is 3 minutes, and for void/null a vote, just left blank one of the positions or not select any party card.

A cross vote example in the light of recent events (independent of Ocariz votes will still counting fpor him or not), a Miranda voter who want to vote for Uzcátegui for governor but want still vote for the MUD in the other races, preferable to still choose the MUD party card and select manually the governor position to change for the Fuerza Vecinal party card or any other who endorse Uzcátegui (the other option is more complicated, as choose the FV card and select one per one the other charges to the MUD card).

Other examples could be a supposed independent voter who supports a MUD candidate in one race, and AD, LAPIZ or whatever other "opposition" candidate in the other.

This is a capture of how the voting process will be and what the voter will face in the precinct, and how will look if they do cross voting (in this case, for the mayor race)

[Skye]

Common PJ L.

[MRCVzla]

And for add more confussion/mess, the last minute pact between MUD and Fuerza Vecinal in Miranda also applies to some mayoral races were they presented separated candidates, but in this case, the Fuerza Vecinal candidates are endorsing the MUD ones, the most notable is Sucre (Petare) were FV' candidate Rosiris Toro is stepping down in favor of MUD' candidate Andrés Schloeter "Chola" is seen as one of the faces of the internal renovation in opposition forces, both "Chola" and Toro were members of the Sucre municipal council in the 2013-2018 term (Ocaríz' second term as mayor), Schloeter was president of the municipal council in 2017-2018.

"Chola" is now the main contender to incumbent chavista mayor José Vicente Rangel Ávalos (son the late José Vicente Rangel, the prominent leftist/chavista politician and journalist who passed away last year. Rangel Ávalos was already mayor of Petare between 2000-2008 and regained the post in 2017).

As a brief review of the top municipal races or the most mediatic ones (the Eastern Caracas-opposition strongholds zone), the Democratic Alliance ("mesita", scorpions and ad hoc parties) has put some "colorful" candidates, main rivals to incumbent mayors (and founders of Fuerza Vecinal) are mostly women with diferent backgrounds, in Chacao, Gustavo Duque ' main rival is TV-lawyer Gloria Pinho (independent for the Democratic Alliance), in Baruta, Darwin Gonzalez has double threat with outgoing local council president Georgette Topalian (PSUV) and independent politician Griselda Reyes (supported by Democratic Alliance, ironically, one of the members is the party who take Reyes' own party card last year... Luis Parra and José Brito' Primero Venezuela), and in El Hatillo, the rival of Elias Sayegh for the Democratic Alliance is former Miss World 2011 Ivian Sarcos (with a known chavista background)... meanwhile "Chola" splinter for the Democratic Alliance is... a last minute change, as original candidate, Globovision' longtime newsanchor-turned-populist-TV host Juan Eleazar Figallo (linked to Javier Bertucci' party ELCAMBIO) has been reemplaced for local dirigient Christian Chrinos (from Claudio Fermin' party Soluciones)

Also there some shakes in Caracas/Libertador race, specially in minor parties endorsing either Tomás Guanipa or Antonio Ecarri, in TV/Radio ads, Ecarri is marking his territory as independent and distancing as possible to the MUD and his candidate Tomás Guanipa (even going full the antipolitical vibe saying "MUD and PSUV are the same" equaling Guaidó' "interim government" mistakes -like Monomeros and CITGO- with the +2 decades of chavismo' rampant corruption and autocracy). Democratic Alliance as dropped his fill-in candidate, local AD-adhoc dirigent Pedro Rojas to former local councilor Maribel Castillo (from Henri Falcón' Avanzada Progresista), original Alliance candidate Leocenis García is barred to run, his party Prociudadanos presented Leocenis' own father with the same name as fill-in... but at the end, he's endorsing Guanipa. Still the "almiranta" Meléndez is the favorite to hold the mayorship to chavismo other 4 years (?).

[MRCVzla]

Welp, today is the day, more than 21 milion of venezuelans are registered to going to the polls, they are open since early in the morning until 18:00 HLV (or until there are voters in queque). Turnout in this kind of elections are not so masive, is expected to be around 50% (migration will also be a big factor), probably chavismo will win the most states, but despite division, democratic opposition can makes some gains or retain the states and mayoral races who won in the 2017 elections, all depends of turnout.

In Miranda finally the MUD votes for governor will be void despite many hopeless reclaims to the CNE,
they insists that the electoral law (modifications until midnight at 10 days to the election) were prevail than the electoral chronogram (who modified the deadline to 6pm). Other scandal in the last legs of the campaign who ended on Thursday was a physical fight between Bolívar governor candidates Raúl Yusef (MUD) and Américo Di Grazia (supported by minor opposition parties) all in front of the EU observer chief, quite a embarrassment. And of course the classic advantage of the chavismo, be it from candidates inauguraing public works or using the state-owned media to open propaganda.

I vote in one of the major opposition strongholds of the country (Diego Bautista Urbaneja municipality in the northeastern Anzoátegui state, a very turistic city, with opp. candidates getting around 70-80% of valid votes in a average turnout). The queques to vote are not as massive as before 2017 but a sightly over respect prior elections were major opposition called to abstain. They probably increase a little bit according age groups (olders voting mostly in the morning, youngers in the evening) in what remains of the process. Voting process is already very fast and takes around the minute if you have very secure to the party/candidate of your preference (limit time staying at the machine is 3 minutes)

First official report of results are excepted to be announced after 22:00 HLV only in race with the famous "irreversible trend". Results page in CNE site will be public after the report.

YouTube livestream coverages:
VPI TV: https://youtube.com/watch?v=AB1OF6YPelA
Globovisión: https://youtube.com/watch?v=IU9kR2f4tCM
Venevisión: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zQh4xk7Mfs
MundoUR: https://youtube.com/watch?v=1kLPzL9ABXU

[MRCVzla]

CNE announced at midnight the results of the regional elections, some surprises despite the obvious happened, chavismo has won 20/23 governors plus holds the Libertador municipality (Mayor of Caracas) with low turnout (41.8%) and the expected division in the opposition in the most populated states (and Caracas)... but surprises in the rural states and some returns like Manuel Rosales in Zulia and Morel Rodríguez in Nueva Esparta.

First Bulletin with 90.2% processed
Libertador municipality (Distrito Capital) - 36.3% turnout
Carmen Meléndez (PSUV) 58.9% - HOLD
Antonio Ecarri (LAPIZ) 15.5%

Anzoátegui - 43.3% turnout
Luis José Marcano (PSUV) 46.0% - GAIN
José Brito (PV) 28.6%
incumbent governor Antonio Barreto Sira (MUD) likely third

Apure - 47.1% turnout
Germán Piñate (PSUV) 43.3% - (**)
Luis Lippa (MUD) 42.1%

Aragua - 36.6% turnout
Karina Carpio (PSUV) 51.8% - HOLD
Luis Eduardo Martínez (AD) 20.0%

Barinas - 45.5% turnout
Argenis Chávez (PSUV) 37.1% - (inc) (**)
Freddy Superlano (MUD) 36.8%

Bolívar - 36.4% turnout
Angel Marcano (PSUV) 42.1% - HOLD
Raúl Yusef (MUD) 21.0%

Carabobo - 36.7% turnout
Rafael Lacava (PSUV) 54.9% - HOLD (inc)
Enzo Scarano (MUD) 24.3%

Cojedes - 54.2% turnout
José Alberto Galíndez (MUD) 48.5% - GAIN (!)
Nosliw Rodríguez (PSUV) 37.1%

Falcón - 46.1% turnout
Víctor Clark (PSUV) 43.4% - HOLD (inc)
Eliéser Sirit (MUD) 33.4%

Guárico - 45% turnout
José Manuel Vásquez (PSUV) 47.1% - HOLD (inc)
Octavio Orta (AD) 39.0%

Lara - 41.5% turnout
Adolfo Pereira (PSUV) 45.9% - HOLD (interim incumbent)
Henri Falcón (AP) 41.6%

Mérida - 44.5% turnout
Jehyson Guzmán (PSUV) 40.4% - GAIN (was governor in 2012-17)
Ramón Guevara (MUD) 34.1% (inc)

Miranda - 39.5% turnout
Héctor Rodríguez (PSUV) 48.2% - HOLD (inc)
David Uzcátegui (FV) 40.8%

Monagas - 48.1% turnout
Ernesto Luna (PSUV) 45.6% - HOLD
Pierre Maroun (MUD) 40.7%

Nueva Esparta - 50.6% turnout
Morel Rodríguez Ávila (FV) 42.6% - Opposition HOLD (*)
Dante Rivas (PSUV) 39.2%
(*) incumbent governor Alfredo Díaz (MUD) likely third

Portuguesa - 46.7% turnout
Antonio Primitivo Cedeño (PSUV) 45.8% - HOLD
María Beatriz Martínez (MUD) 20.1%

Sucre - 48.4% turnout
Gilberto Pinto (PSUV) 46.7% - HOLD
Ramón Martínez (MAS) 31.3% (former governor)

Táchira - 38.3% turnout
Freddy Bernal (PSUV) 41.0% - GAIN
Laidy Gómez (AD) 40.2% (inc)

Trujillo - 46.3% turnout
Gerardo Márquez (PSUV) 41.5% - HOLD
Carlos Andrés González (MUD) 28.2%

Yaracuy - 51.3% turnout
Julio León Heredia (PSUV) 45.9% - HOLD (inc)
Biagio Pilieri (MUD) 31.7%

Zulia - 41.0% turnout
Manuel Rosales (MUD) 56.9% - GAIN
Omar Prieto (PSUV) 36.0% (inc)

Amazonas - 44.0% turnout
Miguel Tadeo Rodríguez (PSUV) 40.2%´- HOLD (inc)
Mauligmer Baloa (MUD) 26.1%

Delta Amacuro - 46.1% turnout
Lizeta Hernández (PSUV) 60.0% - HOLD (inc)
Felipe Gómez (ELCAMBIO) 24.0%

La Guaira - 49.6% turnout
José Alejandro Terán (PSUV) 50.1% - HOLD
José Manuel Olivares (MUD) 42.0%

Detailed results specially with some mayoral races in next hours.

(**) Race not fully called at the moment of the first bulletin.

[Skye]

Hard to put into words how much of a catastrophe this was for the opposition.

[MRCVzla]

Results page is up, but as is usual in recent events, it's a little bit complicated to charge: https://www2.cne.gob.ve/rm2021

As far i can tell, effectively opposition division caused chavismo won in my home state Anzoátegui. Marcano got 46.5%, scorpion Brito got 28.2% and incumbent governor Barreto was at 20.5%, opposition combined got 48.7%. Even in that scenario, PSUV still hold over 50% the two most populated cities of the state, Bolívar (Barcelona) and Sotillo (Puerto La Cruz) with turnout around 39-40%. Brito got most votes in Barcelona and the centre-south area of the state (mostly El Tigre)

In Miranda, void votes were around 44.000 in the governor race while in the legislative list votes were only almost 3.000, so 41.000 were likely void in the MUD party card, Héctor Rodríguez got 406.000 votes while David Uzcátegui got 340.000, the cause of the loss abstention aside, were probaly also splinter votes to COPEI' Juan Carlos Alvarado (+45.000) or José Medina (18.500) a candidate supported by splinter party MIN Unidad. On a "brighter" side, Fuerza Vecinal mayors in Chacao, Baruta, El Hatillo and Los Salías got reelected. In Caracas was nothing to do with the "almiranta" Melendez winning with 59%, Ecarri got 15.5%, Tomás Guanipa got 11.4%, the AD-backed candidate at 7.4% and local dirigent Carlos Melo got 4.6%.

Apure and Barinas races are the ones to watch as were pretty close. CNE rector Roberto Picón said what the results announced at midnight in that states were not definitive or irreversible, and MUD candidate in Barinas Freddy Superlano has not conceded yet. Táchira still governor Laidy Goméz also not conceded yet due to close difference between her and the "protector" Freddy Bernal.

Much very internal discussion and recomposition for what it comes in the future for the democratic forces.

[PSOL]

What did and how did the Popular Revolutionary Alternative do?

[Skye]

What did and how did the Popular Revolutionary Alternative do?

They were a very minor factor in most places, afaik. Their best result seems to be Portuguesa, where former governor Antonia Muñoz got like 10% of the vote.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1462892770184646670

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1463200115255132166

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1463330348511768586

[MRCVzla]

snip

To give a little update and commentary to the tweets, a week after the elections, the only governor race to be called is Barinas, where there is much uncertainty about the final result, the national CNE in Caracas will be count the missing acts to scrutinize and define the winner, from the moment the first bulletin was released, Chavismo has claimed the victory of its 20th governor in the hands of the incumbent Argenis Chávez (brother of the late "Supreme Commander" Hugo Chávez... and his other brother and former governor Adán... and son of former governor Hugo de los Reyes, since 1998 the state has been in hands of the Chávez family btw), but challenger Freddy Superlano, a former deputy from the 2015 AN and member of the G4-faction of Voluntad Popular has requested this due to the little difference in votes that exists between them, and that according to the acts who manage his campaign, he would have won the election. The CNE page still shows the governor race as "Waiting for results of the totalization" with 99.84% of the records transmitted (3 missing acts of the total of 961)... but shows the results of the Legislative State Council were the MUD list is 318 votes ahead from the PSUV/GPP one (103.804 vs. 103.486).

The Apure race was already called during the week, with chavista candidate Germán Piñate being adjudicated governor with a majority of 3751 votes against former governor and MP Luis Lippa.  In this state as in others, the confused voters who voted from the splinter MIN Unidad party (8700 in this state in particular) cost opposition win.

As for the mayoral races, despite division, this election was where the self-claimed opposition or anti-chavista forces won the largest number of mayoralties since the beginning of the polarization (2004), mostly of the municipalities won are in rural areas, showing the new political geography of the country post-migration were chavismo can still retain urban areas affected to the migration (they won in 21 of 23 state capitals plus Distrito Capital, San Carlos in Cojedes and Maracaibo were the exception) meanwhile opposition factors (even separate) makes gains in rural or suburban/low income-"popular" areas were migration not hit hard and there is much discontent to the regime, there were states where they had not elected an opposition mayor in years like Falcón or where they did not have many opposition mayors like Cojedes or Barinas themselves. El Nacional has an article with the detailed list of declared mayors and the alliance who were elected

But even so there have been irregularities during the inauguration of some of these mayors, counterintelligence forces broke into extrajudicially trying to torpedo (without success) the possession of the opposition mayor of San Juan de los Morros (Guárico), while Intelligence Services took arrested the opposition mayor-elect of Arzobispo Chacón (Mérida), who is acussed to being behind an attack on a community radio station.

[MRCVzla]

AN (NOT SO MUCH) UNEXPECTED TWIST
Yesterday it was planned and was being carried out the totalization of the pending acts for the Barinas governor election, according to what the experts of the opposition candidate Freddy Superlano counted, he was winning by just 0.4% of advantage and that the votes that entered were not they changed the victory of the MUD...

...But the TSJ (Supreme Court) appeared and ordered the paralysis of the process, based on an appeal presented by Adolfo Ramón Superlano, a former deputy of the 2015 AN for the group of the so-called "scorpions" (those who were co-opted by the businessman who is now on trial in the US, Alex Saab) and that he was a candidate for a vote-splitting party MIN Unidad, according to the decision of the Electoral Chamber of the TSJ, Adolfo Superlano alleged irregularities in the whole election, because Freddy Superlano (supposedly the beneficiary of an amnesty in 2020 like many other opposition politicians and activists) still has open cases with the courts (mostly allegedly related to corruption or "destabilizing plans" or something like that, which Chavismo always uses to try to take an adversary out of the game) and therefore, despite having passed the CNE filters prior to the election , Freddy Superlano is conveniently (and timely) re-disqualified from holding public office. The Electoral Chamber of the TSJ is chaired by Indira Alfonzo, who was last year CNE ad hoc President and who is linked to the military area of   Chavismo led by Diosdado Cabello and Francisco Ameliach (former Carabobo governor and currently AN deputy), so it is not surprising that it was a decision taken by the so-called Deep State of Chavismo not to lose one of its most symbolic bastions as the home state of the Chávez family.

In short time, the CNE complied with the decision and paralyzed the entire re-count process and hours later the Supreme Court itself ordered the electoral body to repeat the elections for next January 9, the opposition candidate promises to fight his extra-temporary disqualification until the last instances.

Today outgoing governor Argenis Chávez has presented his resign from both Governor and candidate in the repeat election, PSUV' national direction will decide who will be the chavista candidate in Barinas in the next days, Chávez also admitted that internal struggles formed after the primaries that the PSUV held prior to the election affected the prospects of victory and were one the causes of the low mobilization within chavismo base.

Another harsh demonstration of power by the Chavista regime using the judiciary (with the help of its purchased puppets) in doing a coup to alter the popular will. Let see it this event affects main opposition prospects like stay in the Mexico dialogue process or start requesting the recall referendum against Maduro for next year.

[Skye]

As far as I remember, chavismo has never said "lol it was just a prank bro, you were never supposed to be a candidate in the first place" after an election has taken place as an excuse to overturn the result, but that's chavismo for you. As a candidate, you aren't supposed to pose a threat to them.

[MRCVzla]

Yesterday (Monday 6) was the final date to present candidacies to the CNE for the forced repeat election in Barinas, PSUV candidate will be still related to the Chávez family, as national direction decided to be Jorge Arreaza (currently Minister of "Industry and National Production"), Hugo Chávez' in-law (married to Hugo' daughter Maria Gabriela) and former vicepresident and "canciller" (Foreign Affairs Minister). Arreaza still appears register to vote in Caracas, but with the usual "preferential threat" will not surpised if they change his precinct to vote in Barinas.

Other parachute candidate will have the Alianza Demócratica (scorpions and judicial overturned parties) with Soluciones para Venezuela' leader Claudio Fermín as the alliance' candidate for the repeat election. I'm not aware if the "scorpion" responsible to this repeat, Adolfo Ramón Superlano of MIN Unidad, will also run again to split any potential opposition voter like did in November.

As far as I remember, chavismo has never said "lol it was just a prank bro, you were never supposed to be a candidate in the first place" after an election has taken place as an excuse to overturn the result, but that's chavismo for you. As a candidate, you aren't supposed to pose a threat to them.

But for the search of the MUD candidate in the repeat election, seemed that everyone with a intention to run are posed as a threat to chavismo. Originally they tried to postulate Freddy Superlano' wife Aurora Silva de Superlano, but when they have to do the online register, they resulted that Silva was also barred to run like her husband, also tried with Superlano' campaign chief and former AN deputy Julio César Reyes, but the same, also barred to run "mysteriously"... at the end, seems the final opposition candidate will be Sergio Garrido, a some unknown local politician, general secretary of Ramos Allup/G4-AD faction in the state, who was elected in November to the State Legislative Council, were MUD won the list votes but PSUV still holds the control of the regional assembly.

Many things will like happen in more than a month...

[Skye]

Barinas election this Sunday. There have only been two polls, both of which show leads for Garrido, and both of which, as is tradition, you shouldn't really pay attention to.

It's hilarious how the PSUV nominated Arreaza, a man with absolutely 0 charisma and with no ties to the state (unless being Chávez's ex son-in-law counts), and how the controlled opposition brought in Fermín, who has made his entire political career in Caracas, to divide the opposition vote. Oh well.

[MRCVzla]

The electoral day passed with the usual normality, without missing the denunciations of advantage and intimidation of the ruling party. Before 10pm local time through his Twitter account, the PSUV candidate Jorge Arreaza conceded his defeat, alluding that although the number of votes increased compared to what Argenis Chávez achieved in November, it was not enough to win the governorate. Subsequently, the MUD candidate Sergio Garrido announced and celebrated his victory together with the candidate for the November election and campaign manager Freddy Superlano.

After 11pm local time, spokespersons for the CNE in the State of Barinas announced the first bulletin with 97.40% of the votes counted and a turnout of 51.89%, the results were as follows:
Sergio Garrido (MUD): 172,497 votes (55.36%)
Jorge Arreaza (PSUV): 128,583 votes (41.27%)
Claudio Fermin (Democratic Alliance): 5,226 votes (1.77%)
Other candidates (including Adolfo Superlano, MIN): 4,987 votes (1.60%)

In this way, the MUD revalidates the triumph that the Supreme Court took from it in November 2021 in what was a chavista stronghold and the home state of the Chávez family. Now with a greater advantage of more than 40k votes instead of one of less than 100 votes as it was in November. Now let's see if they will let him govern from the Central Power, although it is never ruled out that they impose Arreaza or someone else as "Protector of the State" and take away some powers (control of tolls, airports ...) as has already happened in Cojedes or Zulia.

The electoral period takes its break until, who knows, the process for the Revocation Referendum against Maduro can be activated, in the meantime it will be seen how the country is resolved, still divided even within both Chavismo and the opposition.

[Estrella]

Since there's no Venezuela general thread, I thought I'd ask it here. What were the support bases of the main parties of the pre-Chávez era? I mean mostly AD and COPEI, but also the small parties - URD, MEP, MAS and such. Anything about Venezuelan politics in the Puntofijo era is really hard to find - no maps, no results by state, no analysis, no polls, nothing. I know that in theory, AD was centre-left, COPEI was centre-right and the former had a dominant position, but there don't seem to have been any actual differences between them, while almost all other parties were/pretended to be some shade of left and the right was near-nonexistent. I realize this is a very broad question, but, like, why?

[Skye]

Since there's no Venezuela general thread, I thought I'd ask it here. What were the support bases of the main parties of the pre-Chávez era? I mean mostly AD and COPEI, but also the small parties - URD, MEP, MAS and such. Anything about Venezuelan politics in the Puntofijo era is really hard to find - no maps, no results by state, no analysis, no polls, nothing. I know that in theory, AD was centre-left, COPEI was centre-right and the former had a dominant position, but there don't seem to have been any actual differences between them, while almost all other parties were/pretended to be some shade of left and the right was near-nonexistent. I realize this is a very broad question, but, like, why?

Not sure I'm the right person to answer this. Like you said, detailed accounts from Venezuelan elections from before the Chávez era is poorly documented on the internet. There are, however, plenty of books written about the 4th Republic, in Spanish of course.

Broadly speaking (and like I said, I'm probably not very qualified to explain this) AD and Copei were the most important parties. AD was the Social Democratic party, while Copei was the Christian Democratic party. MEP and MAS were Socialist parties, though the MEP was formed by a split from AD, while the MAS was formed by former Communists. La Causa R was also born from a split from the Communist Party, but would not become relevant until late in the period, when their heavily anti-establishment rhetoric resonated much more among the electorate.