2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election

[DaWN]

I don't even know why Moran is doing this - I really don't think this kind of thing will resonate among old-timer members, and most newer members want to hear about how great Europe is and how awful Boris is, not bizarre policy changes that will never happen anyway.

Honestly, I'm going to throw out a #boldprediction that she comes third.

[DaWN]

Well that bold prediction didn't last very long did it.

I really don't think this kind of thing will resonate among old-timer members...

You ever met the old time members? This is the sort of crankish nonsense the beard-and-sandles brigade have always lapped up.

Yes, I suppose there's an element of truth to that. Still, I think most old-timers will plump for Davey.

[DaWN]

Good.

[DaWN]

An update to the endorsement tracker

Leadership Candidates
Ed Davey (Kingston & Surbiton)
Layla Moran (Oxford West & Abingdon)

Endorsement Tracker
Davey
Daisy Cooper (St Albans)
Christine Jardine (Edinburgh West)
Sarah Olney (Richmond Park)
Tim Farron (Westmorland & Lonsdale)
Munira Wilson (Twickenham)
Moran
Wendy Chamberlain (North East Fife)
Jamie Stone (Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross)
Wera Hobhouse (Bath)
Yet to Endorse
Alistair Carmichael (Orkey & Shetland) (Chief Whip so may not endorse)

[DaWN]

I have just nominated Davey

[DaWN]

Voting is now open. I have just voted for Davey. I expect he'll win but the other result wouldn't shock me. It would however disappoint me, but everything disappoints me these days, so whatever.

[DaWN]

Given voting ends in 4 days, I suppose some of an update is in order. Although I'm not the best person to be doing that given I voted early and haven't been paying attention since.

Generally, I understand Moran has been making a tit of herself in Twitter in ways that probably shouldn't work but might play to the slightly more deranged sections of the FBPE crowd so who knows. Overall though, I'm still expecting a moderately comfortable Davey victory as despite being boring as f!ck he doesn't come across as an utter dumpster fire like his opponent.

Also, a week or so ago I got an email telling me to renew my direct debit. Haven't go around to it yet.

[DaWN]

Given voting ends in 4 days

How long after voting ends do we get results?

Don't know the exact day but I suspect not long after it closes, as it's mostly being done online.

Incidentally, the day the results are released is the day whether I decide to renew my direct debit or not. Or, to put it in broader terms, to stay D-UK or to go back to I-UK.

[DaWN]

All the FBPE ex-labour members I know are backing Moran; I think the Lib Dems even more so than the Tories/Labour have seen the biggest change & churn in their membership over the last 5 years.

If it helps, my mother (a pretty devoted #FPBEr) voted for Davey as she, similarly to me, doesn't think Moran is up to it and thinks Davey is more likely to cooperate with Starmer, something she feels quite strongly about.

I still think Moran is very much like a cheap rocket; she's capable of giving them a big, she knows how to get her name in a story & she has a clear plan for lifting off- I just feel there's a chance it either explodes on launch or crashes at the General Election.

She just clearly isn't up to it, and the duration of the campaign (which has felt very quiet) has reinforced that notion for me, not challenged it. Her campaign material seems to be strongly promoting the idea of her as an election performer, which seems both dubious and probably not the right angle she should be going on.

There's a danger that Moran will offer comfort for a lot of people (including funnily enough left winger critics of Starmer) who want the Lib Dems to become a party that even's less representative of the UK

It's less of a danger and more of a guarantee

even more focused in urban seats & even less willing to have a conversation about winning back places that now have Tory majorities of 10K.

This really needs to be nipped in the bud right now - the future of the Liberal Democrats, if it exists, is in middle-class suburbia that will be increasingly hostile towards a Borisite Conservative party but will never vote Labour - our few positive results in December (St Albans, SW London) should be proof enough of that. The rural south western seats are gone and they are never coming back - they are not interested in anything we may want to sell anymore. That became the case in June 2016, if not May 2010. And strong personal votes and local campaigns is not as effective in the days of social media. Formulating a strategy based on these seats seems awfully like the Democrats in the US who want to chase after Trump+10000 rural seats because they are 'ancestrally Democratic'. Parties that need to grow their vote and seat share need to look at possible future coalitions, not pine for the past.

Having said that, I think Davey would be much better at appealing to middle class suburbia than Moran who would just put them off.

[DaWN]

As a general rule, strategies which are based around cleaning up in one specific type of seat where you did well last time tend not to produce particularly impressive results.

True. But trying to replicate long dead electoral coalitions instead of trying to create new ones does also not generate impressive results.

[DaWN]

I'm not suggesting that the only strategy the Lib Dems should pursue for the rest of eternity is the middle class suburbia one, but it is clearly a viable one for short-term mild recovery back into the 20s in terms of seats, which should be the only goal for 2024. If that is successfully carried out, then a look at possible electoral coalitions for further recovery can looked at based on where successes and failures took place in that election. What I am certain of is that basing any future strategy for a socially liberal, internationalist party on the socially conservative, Brexit voting rural south west is going to end in humiliation.

[DaWN]

11:30 tomorrow is zero hour. Try and hold in your excitement.

[DaWN]

Soooo... final predictions anyone? I predict that the winning candidate will either win very narrowly or by miles with nothing in between.

[DaWN]

Oh good

[DaWN]

Soooo... final predictions anyone? I predict that the winning candidate will either win very narrowly or by miles with nothing in between.

Davey won by miles so with that I win prediction of the year or something

[DaWN]

He might has well have come out and said that he won't contend the sky is blue for all that actually matters at this point

[DaWN]

When was the last time all three """major""" party leaders represented London constituencies? Has it ever happened before?

As someone from an inner london borough I refuse to accept that Kingston & Surbiton is actually in London.

If Kingston and Surbiton aren't London, then Uxbridge isn't either, so it doesn't work anyway

[DaWN]

If it counts now, IMO 2017-19 should count. I know Maidenhead isn't technically in Greater London but it's probably no less of a London suburb than Kingston and Uxbridge is.

(caveat I've only taken a train past Maidenhead or Uxbridge and never been to Kingston/Surbiton, so I might be talking out my arse)

Maidenhead is much less of a London suburb than Kingston and Uxbridge are because, and see if you can follow my logic here, it isn't in London. Even to say Slough is in London is seriously pushing it - Maidenhead is ridiculous.