2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats now lead Republicans by 9.2 in RCP average.

GOP: 38.7%
Dem: 47.9%

Thats a bigger margin than the Dem's 2006 winning margin and 2008 final RCP average.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrat average leads:

RCP: +8.9

Fivethirtyeight: +10.2

This is enough to flip the house.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, the Republicans are royally screwed in 2018. Trump's cooperation with the democrats makes it worse for them too. People will vote for them because it's the only way to get things done.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats +15 in the new Fox Poll

But where's the wave?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

VA-GOV has me feeling down on Dems for 2018, the Gillespie campaign is a good preview of what you will see from candidates across the country. Linking Dems to whatever bogeyman group whether it be MS-13/Antifa and using wedge issues like statues or the pledge. These issues seem to enough to bring home dissatisfied Rs and a good chunk of Indies who disapprove of Trump.

If that were the case then Gillespie would be ahead.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL Morning Consult poll shows GOP up 1 point.
Massive outlier.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL Morning Consult poll shows GOP up 1 point.
Massive outlier.

Morning Consult is a very bad pollster, not sure why Atlas loves them.

Their last poll had the Democrats up 6 or 8 points.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not looking good for the GOP on the betting markets:

As much as I wish that outcome were possible, we shouldn't be taking the opinions of PredictIt members too seriously. There are some really nutty people on that site with very one-sided opinions that obscure their perception of reality. One member on there, Yusky, an avid Trump-supporter, on the day of the Virginia Governor's race, claimed Gillespie would win by 6 points, that Loudon county would go to him by a comfortable margin and that Prince William was up for grabs. The people on there don't really know too much or analyze elections and trends as much as we do.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

These are some seriously brutal and catastrophic numbers for the GOP. The election is still about a year away but the polling has been consistent and Trump and the GOP have shown no signs of changing the way they work.
I will say that yes, the Democrats are favored to retake the house and quite possibly the senate. Just imagine how many seats they could win if gerrymandering wasn’t a thing.
I think the Democrats will be in a far better position in 2018 than the republicans were in 2014 or even 2010.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It seems the GOP tax bill is losing the Republicans support.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What more can we expect from Rain in Nova?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Where is the reaction from Limo"Liberal"?

He's too busy posting pro-Trump polls at RRH

Or posting pro-Trump bullsh**t on PredictIt

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I don't see how it is possible the GOP makes this any better.

Btw, Mclaughlin has a C- rating at FiveThirtyEight

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The GOP should be sh**tting themselves over those PPP numbers.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Btw, the Democrats now lead the GOP by 13 points in the RCP averages.

49.1-36.1%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah the GOP is really f**ked.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's no mystery why Paul Ryan wants to get out of there.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

McConnell is privately acknowledging that the GOP might lose both chambers in 2018...

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/366140-mcconnell-saying-gop-could-lose-both-house-and-senate-in-2018-report

Paul Ryan might be thinking the same thing too since he seems eager to exit.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I noticed that the PredictIt markets are heavily favoring an 85+ seat overturn for the Democrats... obviously I know this is unlikely.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I noticed that the PredictIt markets are heavily favoring an 85+ seat overturn for the Democrats... obviously I know this is unlikely.

It's likely imo because all models have been underperforming since Trump won. The VA HoD Dems were forecast to win between 4-6 seats.

Predictive models can be useless under certain circumstances

It COULD happen and I do understand that the polls have been heavily underestimating the Democrats lately but I don't think it will happen.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats cross 50% in the 538 tracker for the first time: what a glorious Christmas gift!

Tax.... reform... BUMP....!!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yep, Republicans from both chambers are preparing for a bloodbath...

Rep. Charlie Dent (R)

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/366360-retiring-gop-rep-party-should-be-prepared-for-the-worst-in-2018-midterms

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So Newt Gingrich believes that the GOP is going to have a crushing victory in 2018... what a party hack.
He needs to lower his expectations by a couple hundred miles.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov poll: (December 24-26th)

GOP: 36% (+1)!!!
Dems: 44% (-)

Big. Beautiful. Tax Reform BUMP!!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Women are stepping up to run for Congress like never before

Women running and Millennials voting. It's getting increasingly difficult to see how the GOP holds on to the house in November.