2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[OneJ]

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley.

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district

This won't be even a serious contest. Brownley won by a 20 point margin last year while Hillary garnered a 22 point win here. The climate right now is cold for Republicans as well to run in districts like CA-26 in the era of Trump as well.

News at 11.

[OneJ]

Nate Silver,

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Source.

Legitimate question: How much clout should we continue to give Silver after his seriously botched 2016 prediction.

At least Silver actually gave Trump a chance to win the election. As a matter of fact, in his model he acknowledged that he had an unusually high chance of winning the electoral college while losing the popular vote.

Plus, other analysts didn't give Trump a chance at all.

[OneJ]

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Let them waste all that money so they can get Kirked too.

[OneJ]

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Let them waste all that money so they can get Kirked too.

your reference to Kirk doesn't make sense.

I wasn't being that serious. I just wanted to reference his loss.

Either way, I have a hard time seeing how the GOP can flip this seat back atm.

[OneJ]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/24/politics/cnn-poll-republican-party-approval/
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/09/24/poll.-.parties.and.2018.pdf.pdf

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Generic poll (CNN): 50 - 41 (D)


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edit: interestingly enough, based on the age cross tabs, a lot of this lead seems to be based on traditional Republican-leaning groups: older, whiter and more educated. Voters $50k+ seem to leaning more Democratic than in 2014, but will probably still be majority Republican, just less so.

In this same poll, here is the excitement on voting for Congress...

Among registered Democrats:
*Extremely Enthusiastic - 24% (highest since first collection)
*Very Enthusiastic - 20% (fourth highest after Oct. 30-Nov 1, 2009, March 25-28, 2010 & Oct. 5-7, 2010)
*Somewhat Enthusiastic - 29% (lowest level since first collection)
*Not too Enthusiastic - 14% (lowest since March 25-28, 2010)
*Not at all Enthusiastic - 10% (third lowest after Oct. 30-Nov 1, 2009 & March 25-28, 2010)

Among registered Republicans:
*Extremely Enthusiastic - 14% (lowest since first collection)
*Very Enthusiastic - 20% (pretty consistent with previous years; fourth lowest)
*Somewhat Enthusiastic - 31% (second highest after Oct 30-Nov 1, 2009)
*Not too Enthusiastic - 18% (tied for second highest which was Sept 4-7; highest was Dec. 16-19)
*Not at all Enthusiastic - 14% (fourth highest)

Total enthusiasm (just using Extremely Enthusiastic + Very Enthusiastic) for Democrats is the highest it has ever been for them although it doesn't beat the peak total enthusiasm from Republicans. During Oct 5-7, 2010 and May 21-23, 2010 it was a total of 54% for Registered Republicans (although they were more likely to be extremely enthusiastic in October) compared to 44% for the Democrats right now, at least from CNN.

[OneJ]

28-year old State Rep Kaniela Ing is running for Hanabusa’s seat. Hawaii will now have 2 beautiful Representatives.

If I could vote for him just on his looks, I would do it so he can give me some tips on improving my looks.

[OneJ]

All of these news breaking out is like dominoes falling on each other at a rapid pace.

[OneJ]

McConnell is privately acknowledging that the GOP might lose both chambers in 2018...

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/366140-mcconnell-saying-gop-could-lose-both-house-and-senate-in-2018-report

Paul Ryan might be thinking the same thing too since he seems eager to exit.

What makes it so crazy is not the fact that they might lose the House, but he acknowledges that the Senate could be lost despite the fact that the Dems don't have a favorable map.

[OneJ]

lol

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LMFAO.

[OneJ]

Should we split out Generic ballot from all other items into its own thread?

I think that's a good idea.

I agree.

[OneJ]

I don't see what's wrong with Matiella. She's just simply better.

[OneJ]

Here's the thing: The Republicans are oblivious. They believe a tax cut bill and a mediocre SOTU will save them.

Nope. They see a surging economy and a tax cut growing in popularity every day. They see a hugely disliked leader (Nancy Pelosi) that they can effectively run against. They see a president who's approval improves every day, and can activate millions of voters to vote for Republicans. They see the Democrats' much vaunted lead on the generic ballot narrowing every day.

Why didn't you keep your R-VA avatar?