Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[jaichind]

Italian Lower Chamber Elections: LA7 Second Projection

Coalition   Votes %
Center-Right   36.9%
Center-Left   23.0%

Party   Votes %
Five Star Movement   32.3%
Democratic Party   18.7%
League   17.3%
Forza Italia   14.3%
Brothers of Italy   4.3%
Free and Equal   3.4%
+Europe Bonino   2.7%
Us With Italy - UDC   1.0%
Popular Civic Lorenzin   0.5%
Together Italy Europe   0.7%

[Zuza]

has called for ethnic cleansing

When?!

[Oryxslayer]

Lega is ahead of Forza in Lazio (the region with Rome in it). I thought they'd do well, but that level of success south of Tuscany is a surprise.

Eh, we got only 2% in there, and if you were following the turnout count, then you would understand when I say that it will be a while till we start seeing Rome+Suburbs rather than rural Lazio. Hell, none of Rome is actually in there, so it is very early. Expect Forza to overtake Lega there. But, this is just one of many signs that Lega is having an excellent night, and is getting historically significant results in the center+south.

[Sestak]

has called for ethnic cleansing

When?!

Okay, he's called for cleansing.

But we all know what he's talking about.

[TheSaint250]

has called for ethnic cleansing

When?!

Okay, he's called for cleansing.

But we all know what he's talking about.

I believe he was talking about illegal migrants, not a specific race.

[Sestak]

has called for ethnic cleansing

When?!

Okay, he's called for cleansing.

But we all know what he's talking about.

I believe he was talking about illegal migrants, not a specific race.

Oh come on, the word choice is like a dog loudspeaker.

[Sestak]

10% in...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Centre-right hits a million votes.

[jaichind]

Italian Senate Elections: LA7 Fourth Projection

Coalition   Votes %
Center-Right   37.5%
Center-Left   23.0%

Party   Votes %
Five Star Movement   32.1%
Democratic Party   19.0%
League   17.6%
Forza Italia   14.6%
Brothers of Italy   4.1%
Free and Equal   3.2%
+Europe Bonino   2.4%
Us With Italy - UDC   1.1%
Together Italy Europe   0.7%
Popular Civic Lorenzin   0.5%

[Oryxslayer]

10% in...

19,995/61,401 in the Senate, close to 33%

6,767/61,401 in the Lower House, close to 10%

Frankly, I'm surprised calls arn't being made in some of the FPTP Senate seats yet: half of Campaignia is in, half of Emilio Romagnia, over half of Liguria, 40% of Piedmont and Venice, and about 60% of Tuscany.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Lega is ahead of Forza in Lazio (the region with Rome in it). I thought they'd do well, but that level of success south of Tuscany is a surprise.

Eh, we got only 2% in there, and if you were following the turnout count, then you would understand when I say that it will be a while till we start seeing Rome+Suburbs rather than rural Lazio. Hell, none of Rome is actually in there, so it is very early. Expect Forza to overtake Lega there. But, this is just one of many signs that Lega is having an excellent night, and is getting historically significant results in the center+south.

True. Any possibility that M5S's scandals running Rome will hurt it there?

[jaichind]

Latest Senate seat projections from pollster SWG:
Center-Right (Berlusconi's coalition) - 127-147 seats
5 Star - 95-115 Seats
Center-Left (Renzi & allies) - 50-70 seats

[njwes]

has called for ethnic cleansing

When?!

Okay, he's called for cleansing.

But we all know what he's talking about.

I believe he was talking about illegal migrants, not a specific race.

Oh come on, the word choice is like a dog loudspeaker.

Dog whistles aren't a real thing outside the minds of the left.


Is it for sure that some governing coalition will be cobbled together from these results, or could we see another snap election in the not-too-distant future?

[jaichind]

Still nothing from Lazio ...

[Oryxslayer]

Lega is ahead of Forza in Lazio (the region with Rome in it). I thought they'd do well, but that level of success south of Tuscany is a surprise.

Eh, we got only 2% in there, and if you were following the turnout count, then you would understand when I say that it will be a while till we start seeing Rome+Suburbs rather than rural Lazio. Hell, none of Rome is actually in there, so it is very early. Expect Forza to overtake Lega there. But, this is just one of many signs that Lega is having an excellent night, and is getting historically significant results in the center+south.

True. Any possibility that M5S's scandals running Rome will hurt it there?

Well, it certainly did in the regional polls. A couple hours ago, the exit polls for the regional election in Lazio put M5S in the mid/low 20s. We don't know for sure what they will get there (the last election which will be tabulated) but I would say that they certainly will get a reduced margin. Perhaps this is why Lega is doing so well in the region - the right wing of M5S's voters decided to cast votes for Lega in protest.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Italy counts slower than Atlanta.

[jaichind]

Italy counts slower than Atlanta.

But still faster than Westchester County

[jaichind]

Lower Chamber Elections: LA7 Third Projection

PD and FI losing ground relative to second projection

Coalition   Votes %
Center-Right   37.1%
Center-Left   22.9%

Party   Votes %
Five Star Movement   32.6%
Democratic Party   18.7%
League   17.7%
Forza Italia   14.0%
Brothers of Italy   4.3%
Free and Equal   3.2%
+Europe Bonino   2.6%
Us With Italy - UDC   1.2%
Together Italy Europe   0.7%
Popular Civic Lorenzin   0.5%

[DavidB.]

Keeps getting better.

[jaichind]

RAI Projection lower house

Looks like LN will be ahead of FI in terms of seats
On the other hand it seems M5S-LN will have a majority of lower house seats

Coalition      From   To
Center-Right      248   268
Center-Left      107   127

Party   
Five Star Movement      216   236
Democratic Party      103   113
League      122   132
Forza Italia      94   104
Brothers of Italy      24   34
Free and Equal      11   21
South Tyrolean People’s Party      3   5
Popular Civic Lorenzin      2   4
Us With Italy - UDC      2   4
+Europe Bonino      0   2
Together Italy Europe      0   2
Others      0   2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

F**K

[jaichind]

Looks like it will be M5S choice of PD or LN to form the majority.

[Oryxslayer]

We are basically done with the turnout count. From 2013, we are down a little over 2%. With 16 jurisdictions left to report, turnout is 73.05%

Basilicata, up from 69.27 to 71.19
Calabria, up from 62.74 to 63.53
Campania, up from 67.40 to 67.97
Emila Romagna, down from 82.05 to 78.27
Friuli Venezia Giulia, down from 77.09 to 75.13
Liguria, down from 74.99 to 71.93
Marche, down from 79.42 to 77.16
Molise, down from 77.76 to 71.59
Piedmont, down from 77.12 to 75.10
Sardinia, down from 68.77 to 65.88
Sicily, down from 64.60 to 63.07
Trento, down from 81.29 to 75.06
Umbria, down from 79.10 to 77.32
Val D'Aosta, down from 77.08%  to 72.40%

[jaichind]

EUR still holding steady but various international equity futures are selling off 

[jaichind]

It was thought that Five Star leader Luigi Di Maio may speak tonight -- it now seems he won't. A spokesperson for the party says Di Maio will address the press tomorrow in the early afternoon, without offering further details.   I guess they have no clue what to do now that a government cannot be formed without them.