Is Virginia still worth trying in for the GOP or is it a lost cause?

[Ragnaroni]

We can all agree Colorado is gone for good, Nevada is a perpetual swing state these days, New Mexico seems irrelevant (and unwinnable too) and Arizona is a battleground state but what about Virginia? It voted 54% for Biden a 10 point margin but I feel it's still winnable for the Republicans somehow.
I forgot to mention Youngkin's 2 point margin of victory which was a 14 point swing IIRC.
Dicuss

[Ragnaroni]

Desperately need non-Trump data for a federal election.  Until then, they should treat it as Lean D but impossible. 

Do you assume that there will be some improvement or worsening statewide for the GOP in a non-Trump election? I lean towards the former.

[Ragnaroni]

Desperately need non-Trump data for a federal election.  Until then, they should treat it as Lean D but impossible. 

Do you assume that there will be some improvement or worsening statewide for the GOP in a non-Trump election? I lean towards the former.

Almost surely improvement, probably but not certainly not enough to do anything statewide.  The anti-Trump conservatives are very concentrated in VA-10.  It went from Romney +1 to Clinton +10 to Biden +20 to McAuliffe +5 in 2021 to Dem +6.5 for Congress in 2022.  The last result suggests it's more likely 2020 was a one-time thing there than 2021.  However, the Richmond suburbs are more monotonically moving left which cancels this out somewhat.

I see, so not running Trump in 2024 would be a wise move in some way. I know there are many states that have the same situation as the anti-Trump GOP guys in VA.