Is Virginia still worth trying in for the GOP or is it a lost cause?

[jamestroll]

I know it is a CONTROVERSIAL opinion, but I do believe the similar swings from 2020 PRES to NJ and VA gov in 2021 ... it was a sheer co-incidence. There were absolutely local and state issues that caused Virginia. New Jersey came more unexpected.


and this...

I think Rs can technically win Virginia on paper, but its one of those situations where you ask yourself is it worth spending millions of dollars when there are much easier states to secure the 270 electoral votes. Another thing is I feel conservatives do is write the state off because of NOVA. Yes, its not good for them, but before we can even talk about NOVA there has been significant erosion downstate in both Virginia Beach and the Richmond area. If you cant find a way to improve your margins in those areas, NOVA is the least of your worries.

My (way too early) guess for 2024:
Biden vs Trump: Biden+8-9
Biden vs DeSantis: Biden+4-6

^^^^^

[jamestroll]

Desperately need non-Trump data for a federal election.  Until then, they should treat it as Lean D but impossible.  

There were of course anti-trump conservatives who voted for Biden in Virginia and 2021 Democrats got caught off guard when they could no longer count on those voters. But compare NoVa results in 2021 to any election prior to 2016.. there has been a major shift.

Virginia being "safe d" was always hype. But fortunately for them, Democrats will keep it from being a swing state with their improvements in Richmond and Hampton Road.  But there is no 2014 or 2012 Nova margins for Democrats for the foreseeable future either.

To put in perspective: Virginia was one of the relatively states in which Democrats won the house popular vote in 2022 in a GOP leaning year. That was with strong GOP campaigns in VA-10 and VA-07 and VA-02 flipping.