I think Rs can technically win Virginia on paper, but its one of those situations where you ask yourself is it worth spending millions of dollars when there are much easier states to secure the 270 electoral votes. Another thing is I feel conservatives do is write the state off because of NOVA. Yes, its not good for them, but before we can even talk about NOVA there has been significant erosion downstate in both Virginia Beach and the Richmond area. If you cant find a way to improve your margins in those areas, NOVA is the least of your worries.
My (way too early) guess for 2024:
Biden vs Trump: Biden+8-9
Biden vs DeSantis: Biden+4-6
That’s still a swing rightward from 2020. Who will vote Trump that didn’t vote for him in 2020?