2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alcibiades]

Biden has edge in NYT needle in GA now.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323864823680126977

Now flagged by Twitter.

Lmao

[xavier110]

The shenanigans in PA are going to make this election drag out forever, aren't they?

The shenanigans? The GOP didn’t let them open mail ballots until today!!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Major vote drops to come in Fulton and DeKalb for GA.  Looks to be a big comeback for Biden.  The question is well it will be enough.

I’m going to say No.

Big surprise.

[forsythvoter]

NBC reporting their models show a 2% Biden win in WI once the early vote is in.

[The Free North]

Check out the California county map. Sheer devastation so far for California Republicans.

Its early vote and it will be better for Dems. As it was in Florida, Iowa, Texas, NC, etc...

Except in California the margins tend to decrease for Republicans as the counting continues.

This is not a normal election.

[Da2017]

I'm getting a lot more confident with Minnesota being called and  NE-2. That should bold well for Michigan and Wisconsin.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So how are we currently feeling about:

MI?

WI?

PA?

MI: At this point Trump has surpassed or nearly surpassed his total 2016 votes in a few traditionally Republican counties (eg. Ottawa) and also in Flint. His margin in key counties like Macomb is substantial but he's farther from hitting his 2016 vote totals. Typically the Democratic votes in Detroit come late in Michigan even without mail ins, but on the other hand Michigan Republicans have a strong mail in vote operation and I doubt they'll be getting blown out like they will be in Pennsylvania. One bright spot for Biden is that he won back Leelaunau and has 1,000 more voters than Hillary did with 90% reporting. Probably the hardest state to call right now but it has the most for Biden to be happy about outside of the suburbs. Tilt Biden I guess?

WI: Everything I'm seeing suggests Trump will win. He's improving his vote totals in key southwestern counties that Biden was supposed to have won back and the Wisconsin suburbs are famously inflexible to the usual trends. In Lafayette Trump has pulled 1000 brand new voters straight out of his ass when they were supposed to be defecting in droves to Biden. The only silver lining for Biden is that he's somehow doing even better in Madison, but Madison alone ain't gonna cut it. Unless Biden pulls out crazy numbers from Milwaukee or its surrounding suburbs or unless it turns out the maps are lying and actually there are thousands of mail ins for those key southwestern states and turnout is almost double 2016 somehow I don't see a path for Biden and frankly I want to be proven wrong. Likely Trump.

PA: There are similarly bad signs for Biden in Trump's total votes in counties like Erie, but at least Biden can rest safe knowing hundreds of thousands of votes will arrive near the end of the count in his favour and his margins/turnout in the Philly suburbs will probably be substantial. The Allegheny turnout and margin will matter a ton here and I think will be decisive: if Trump does significantly worse here than his 2016 margin on the back of the suburbs (40%) then Biden has the edge but if Trump even manages to stem the bleeding to at least 35%ish then he'll be in a good position to win.

[MillennialModerate]

Major vote drops to come in Fulton and DeKalb for GA.  Looks to be a big comeback for Biden.  The question is well it will be enough.

I’m going to say No.

Big surprise.

My answer was one of riveting suspense

[Illiniwek]

NBC reporting their models show a 2% Biden win in WI once the early vote is in.

Yikes. That's really close, and doesn't bode well for PA.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

This is shaping up to be a LOT like 2018. Florida goes bad, everyone freaks the fu—k out, then we slowly learn over the course of the night that just about everywhere else is fine.

We might even still win Georgia LOL. And to think we had doomers dooming, Trumpers gloating, and everyone pointing fingers and arguing over the cause of this “loss” that was never very likely to actually occur.

Republicans are keeping the Senate. Real doomer hours if you actually want Democratic legislation to pass.

I guess that doesn't matter when all you care about is performativity.

Believe it or not, I don’t want the most powerful man in the world to be a dangerous incompetent idiot and wannabe dictator. That’s more important to me than the Senate, and it’s not just “performative.”

McConnell will be more powerful than Biden and he, unlike Trump, is highly competent and evil.

Sorry, but you guys blew it. Biden may eke out a narrow victory that will be largely hollow. No Democratic policy goal, judge appointment, or bill will pass. Which renders the entire primary meaningless.

But on the plus side, he will have plenty of time to eat ice cream. Make sure it's that Jeni's brand the centrist Dems weirdly obsess over.

Repealing the travel ban, reinstating DACA, and reasonable leadership on the pandemic aren’t policy goals, I guess.

With a 6-3 Republican court? Are you joking?

[Kuumo]

I did not have Ada ID and Stafford VA flipping.

I had a good feeling about Ada County, ID since I'm from there. There were lots of Biden bumper stickers and BLM signs all over Boise, and it's been growing like crazy the last four years. It's similar to Deschutes County, OR. Kind of funny that it probably voted to the left of Oklahoma County, which was much more hyped up on Atlas.

[charcuterie]

NBC reporting their models show a 2% Biden win in WI once the early vote is in.

Wow, that's...really underwhelming.

[CrimsonCommander688]

So if Biden wins, would he be a lame duck with a GOP Senate and 2022 Midterm stacked against him?

[Never Made it to Graceland]

So if Biden wins, would he be a lame duck with a GOP Senate and 2022 Midterm stacked against him?

Yep.

[7,052,770]

Now that Biden has a likely path that doesn't involve Pennsylvania or Georgia ... can he get to 270 by sunup?

[Storr]

NBC reporting their models show a 2% Biden win in WI once the early vote is in.

Yikes. That's really close, and doesn't bode well for PA.

He can reach 270 without PA with Clinton + AZ, MI, WI, and NE-02.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm still awake and it's 7 am in Spain! Feeling a bit more confident about Biden now than some hours ago.

Thanks for holding along the ride. You're in good company.

[forsythvoter]

Just out of curiousity, why are so adamant that Biden won't win GA? I'm just looking at the votes outstanding and basing it on the past voting patterns and trends.

Major vote drops to come in Fulton and DeKalb for GA.  Looks to be a big comeback for Biden.  The question is well it will be enough.

I’m going to say No.

Big surprise.

My answer was one of riveting suspense

[MasterJedi]

So if Biden wins, would he be a lame duck with a GOP Senate and 2022 Midterm stacked against him?

Hammer home how he wants to give another stimulus but Republicans won’t allow it. Mitch won’t give you back your money.

[DrScholl]

Check out the California county map. Sheer devastation so far for California Republicans.

Its early vote and it will be better for Dems. As it was in Florida, Iowa, Texas, NC, etc...

Except in California the margins tend to decrease for Republicans as the counting continues.

This is not a normal election.

It isn't a normal election, but Kern County going blue hasn't happened since 1964. Democrats just don't do well there even under the most bizarre circumstances.

[Platypus]

So if Biden wins, would he be a lame duck with a GOP Senate and 2022 Midterm stacked against him?

But, no Trump, so still a win for the world.

[Alben Barkley]

So how are we currently feeling about:

MI?

WI?

PA?

MI: At this point Trump has surpassed or nearly surpassed his total 2016 votes in a few traditionally Republican counties (eg. Ottawa) and also in Flint. His margin in key counties like Macomb is substantial but he's farther from hitting his 2016 vote totals. Typically the Democratic votes in Detroit come late in Michigan even without mail ins, but on the other hand Michigan Republicans have a strong mail in vote operation and I doubt they'll be getting blown out like they will be in Pennsylvania. One bright spot for Biden is that he won back Leelaunau and has 1,000 more voters than Hillary did with 90% reporting. Probably the hardest state to call right now but it has the most for Biden to be happy about outside of the suburbs. Tilt Biden I guess?

WI: Everything I'm seeing suggests Trump will win. He's improving his vote totals in key southwestern counties that Biden was supposed to have won back and the Wisconsin suburbs are famously inflexible to the usual trends. In Lafayette Trump has pulled 1000 brand new voters straight out of his ass when they were supposed to be defecting in droves to Biden. The only silver lining for Biden is that he's somehow doing even better in Madison, but Madison alone ain't gonna cut it. Unless Biden pulls out crazy numbers from Milwaukee or its surrounding suburbs or unless it turns out the maps are lying and actually there are thousands of mail ins for those key southwestern states and turnout is almost double 2016 somehow I don't see a path for Biden and frankly I want to be proven wrong. Likely Trump.

PA: There are similarly bad signs for Biden in Trump's total votes in counties like Erie, but at least Biden can rest safe knowing hundreds of thousands of votes will arrive near the end of the count in his favour and his margins/turnout in the Philly suburbs will probably be substantial. The Allegheny turnout and margin will matter a ton here and I think will be decisive: if Trump does significantly worse here than his 2016 margin on the back of the suburbs (40%) then Biden has the edge but if Trump even manages to stem the bleeding to at least 35%ish then he'll be in a good position to win.

You’re completely wrong about Wisconsin for several reasons that have been explained repeatedly. You’re too obsessed with those Southwest counties and have ignored Biden’s gains elsewhere and the massive amount of outstanding Milwaukee vote.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I did not have Ada ID and Stafford VA flipping.

I had a good feeling about Ada County, ID since I'm from there. There were lots of Biden bumper stickers and BLM signs all over Boise, and it's been growing like crazy the last four years. It's similar to Deschutes County, OR. Kind of funny that it probably voted to the left of Oklahoma County, which was much more hyped up on Atlas.

It will seem the current political divide is based on places that are doing well and places that are not.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Biden potentially *needing* the loose EVs from Nebraska and Maine to win is something I don't think anyone really saw coming