MI (MRG) - Biden +3

[pbrower2a]

At this stage, and incumbent running in a statewide race should be getting 43.5% support just to have a 50-50 chance of winning re-election (50% of the share between the two main candidates). The average gain for an incumbent Governor or Senator is about 6.5% from early support by the average campaign against the average opponent.  Figuring that the Presidential race is equivalent potentially to fifty statewide races, one city-wide mayoral race, and five congressional races, and that for a state such as Michigan that Trump barely carried he will need at the least a spirited and competent campaign to win Michigan again (one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin probably wins for him unless something funny happens in Arizona, Florida, or North Carolina)...

it is all up to the President. He must be a competent leader with a looming recession and a nasty infection that can shut down a big chunk of the American economy he will have to turn from average at best to well-above average to make Michigan close. He can win without Michigan, as Dubya showed both in getting elected the first time and in getting re-elected.